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[PatrikLundell]

The clock is ticking: How long can you have a "coming soon" announcement up? 1 year? 2 years? From my perspective it looks like a 1-2 year time frame before what's indicated is done when Toady is doing it alone. That doesn't include the UI total overhaul wishes of some people.

I'm having similar reservations to those voiced by mikekchar: I think the commercial route will require more compromises than Toady/Threetoe are willing to make. I don't have any reasonable prediction about how much the commercial version is going to make, but my gut feeling is that it will be a trickle beside the (slightly reduced due to a transfer to the commercial route) donation income.

- The initial tidying up jobs will have to be performed by multiple people (not just tile sets and music) to be performed in a timely manner. This would require the source code to be available to selected people (which definitely is not the same as open access), and possibly sectioning the code up so parts get more independent (to allow for parallel work). Graphics engine, path finding,...
Very unlikely to happen, though, unfortunately.
- The minimum work flow change required, in my view, is to maintain the current and the next version in parallel rather than the current practice of packaging the current version up and put into storage once the work on the next one is started, which Toady seems to be prepared to do (but does not seem to be willing to start with until forced to, as there's no indication game crashing bugs in the current version are going to be addressed before the next version). As I see it, this means spending time on fixing bugs on the current version (at any one time) in parallel with working on the next one, something like one bug fix release per month with about one week spent on it. Bug fixes would obviously address immediate issues such as crash bugs, but would otherwise aim at fixing bugs that aren't affected by what's being worked on, and affected by what's causes the most trouble for customers. A version control system would help with this, but I suspect Toady won't be prepared to do that (which will cost time in the long run, as doing bug fixes in parallel requires more work than using version control to bring them across).
- I can see no way around the Big Wait, so it will happen eventually, but the commercial version activities will push the start a fair bit further away, so I don't think it will start this year, and I'm not sure it will start the next year either. The "make DF more accessible" can of worm contains worms that will expand drastically once the lit has been removed...

With the hope that I will be proven wrong...

[Ulfarr]

I don't think Steam will bring in a lot of new players, especially at $20. 

It might not bring a lot of new players that bought it, but it has already brought some players both new and old. If you look at the forum statistics then the day it was announced that DF is going to steam had both the most people online (1109) since 2016 and the highest number of new members (19) in a single day since 2017. More importantly some of the new members have already started to be active in the forum.

[Cruxador]

How long can you have a "coming soon" announcement up?

There is literally no limit.

I'm having similar reservations to those voiced by mikekchar: I think the commercial route will require more compromises than Toady/Threetoe are willing to make.

Neither Steam nor itch.io require any particular compromises to be made. Even the graphics and UI stuff has long been planned, just not prioritized.

I don't have any reasonable prediction about how much the commercial version is going to make, but my gut feeling is that it will be a trickle beside the (slightly reduced due to a transfer to the commercial route) donation income.

This isn't consistent with what has happened to similar games.

Graphics engine, path finding,...
Very unlikely to happen, though, unfortunately.

The graphics engine has been open, that's why Baughn was able to update it. Pathfinding was tried, and it was found that in fact the current version of it is pretty much as good as it gets.

The minimum work flow change required, in my view, is to maintain the current and the next version in parallel rather than the current practice of packaging the current version up and put into storage once the work on the next one is started, which Toady seems to be prepared to do (but does not seem to be willing to start with until forced to, as there's no indication game crashing bugs in the current version are going to be addressed before the next version).

This will begin with the myth and magic update, which is the first big update after the steam release.

[Oab]

Yeah… In its current state the game is either a huge initial learning curve or a perhaps a huge wall to some. A good percentage of those who were interested in the game in the past have been turned off by this more than anything else.

The UI is certainly lacking modern day expectations, but as others have pointed out it’s getting some updates before release. Better menu navigation/more mouse support would be a massive improvement over the existing design.

No built in graphics and limited readability. The inclusion of vanilla graphics will solve this as long as Meph and Mike keep it clean and simple.

Plus Toady can continue to rely on modder’s doing their work to enhance the game as they have done in the past. Especially considering additional support to do so is being integrated.

Bugs are certainly a concern that is valid, but steam users are used to this with EA titles. Toady may have to do more bug fixing than normal, but that’s hardly a compromise.

Performance is really my only major concern. I predict the majority of negative reviews over the long run will be in regards to performance and FPS death. This is something Toady can worry about later. I doubt enough of the steam users will reach the point where their forts are dying to FPS death to prohibit a successful launch. How long did it take any of you to reach this point?

To top it off steam has a 2 hour return policy. Toady won’t have to worry about performance being a cause for refunds.

DF isn’t as widely known as some of you seem to think. Steam is by far the best marketing tool for games, millions of people use Steam.

I have seen some posts saying the price is too much.

$20.00 isn’t too much for an EA title on steam with the amount of content we’re talking about. I bet people who really love the game will feel compelled to donate more after realizing how many hours of fun they are getting from it to support further development. A $20 price tag will prompt more positive reviews than negatives imo.

If Toady can get these issues ironed to an acceptable level before release I predict DF will sell between 75,000 and 200,000 copies within the first month.

This is actually an educated guess based on previous simulation games sales numbers. There have been unpolished and buggy EA titles with the depth of a puddle versus the ocean that is DF in content that have reached this level of success with $20.00-$30.00 price tags. Why wouldn’t DF?

[Cruxador]

No built in graphics and limited readability. The inclusion of vanilla graphics will solve this as long as Meph and Mike keep it clean and simple.

It definitely won't be as clean and simple as the currently default ASCII-like tileset.

Bugs are certainly a concern that is valid, but steam users are used to this with EA titles.

Based on what was said, it seems the game won't be listed as early access.

DF isn’t as widely known as some of you seem to think. Steam is by far the best marketing tool for games, millions of people use Steam.

It's pretty widely known in the sense of people having heard of it. It's not so widespread in terms of who's actually played it or donated, though, and putting it in front of people on Steam will definitely be a big deal from a marketing perspective, but it will also benefit from existing renown.

[Oab]

Based on what was said, it seems the game won't be listed as early access.

If that is true it certainly won't help. Reviews are typically more forgiving with EA titles.

It's pretty widely known in the sense of people having heard of it. It's not so widespread in terms of who's actually played it or donated, though, and putting it in front of people on Steam will definitely be a big deal from a marketing perspective, but it will also benefit from existing renown.

Yeah the established reputation should certainly help. There are quite a few successful games citing it as inspiration which is unfortunately the extent people are aware of it. This most likely has a lot to do with it not being easily accessible on steam.

[Bumber]

This will begin with the myth and magic update, which is the first big update after the steam release.

The new schedule involves armies, etc., before M&M. That may be a reasonably large update.

[mikekchar]

I'm definitely interested to see what happens.  To the extent that I really want to know if my worries are well grounded, I'm super happy they did this.  And to be fair, business is all about taking calculated risks.  I'm notoriously bad at taking risks which is why I'm a programmer and not an entrepreneur.  I certainly wish them great success, but some part of me wishes that the success will be that donations rise to the point where Steam and Itch are irrelevant...

[Tinnucorch]

I certainly wish them great success, but some part of me wishes that the success will be that donations rise to the point where Steam and Itch are irrelevant...

The game is definitely worth more than 20$. But it all comes down to if Steam users will be willing to donate above that. I think it was already mentioned in this thread, but once the game has a fixed price it could also be taken as reference for donations wich otherwise could be higher.

[Scripten]

Looks like the Dwarf Fortress FB page is catching a decent amount of the toxicity of the Steam forums, too. Remains to be seen if the mods step in, but there's some drama on the horizon.

EDIT: Nevermind. Community coming in clutch just a few hours later. Gives me the warm fuzzies.

[HmH]

In line with the opening post, I want to note that Bay 12 is, paradoxically, the kindest and healthiest Internet community I've ever seen. Even trolls seem to mellow out around here.
I think it's mostly because the community is based on seeing each other and ourselves the way we are - especially our inner monsters, which are present in everyone but accepted almost nowhere.
That level of openness can only foster respect between people: just look at BDSM relationships, science shows them to be healthier than ordinary ones, and getting acknowledged by the scientific community is no small feat for a psychological phenomenon.

And that's why I think this Steam release announcement is very alarming.

I've seen a wonderful forum dedicated to Fallout games turn into a wretched hive of trolls and scumbaggery when Fallout 3 came out.
Before that moment, the peer pressure from older members of the community forced new, often immature, members to better themselves quickly. I was amongst those immature new members; I still remember how quickly that atmosphere turned the insufferable little shit I was into someone halfway decent.
However, that system fell apart when the community was flooded with too many new members, who established a new, more toxic standard of behavior. Things settled down after a while... but many of the forum's best left out of disgust at what was happening, and even today it is not what it used to be.

I've heard of small respectful subcultures similarly falling into toxicity and infighting when these subcultures attracted too many new members in too little time. Minecraft, imageboards, punks and goths... hell, Internet itself appears to have deteriorated with each rapid spike in popularity. (I'm looking at you, Facebook.)

That trend isn't limited to rank-and-file members of the community, either. Pretty much everyone knows about music bands starting to fall apart after they got too popular(cough cough Beatles and Pink Floyd cough); I wonder if that might happen to the Adams brothers, and sincerely hope not.

The one thing I can put my hopes on is that the game's learning curve and the sheer monstrousness of what we do here will help seed off those who are not patient or accepting enough to maintain peace on the forums.
All in all, the Steam release might cause a calamity - but a calamity that would happen anyway, sometime in the future, as the game got easier to learn. It's better to have it happen on our own terms.

[Shonai_Dweller]

Go check out the Unreal World forum. Lack of toxicity is stifling.

[PatrikLundell]

I doubt the Adams will somehow fall out with each other, since they've made it this far. It's more likely that Toady would give up if it somehow resulted in a significant increase of boring administration type work, but I fail to see what would cause that. I also doubt there will be an enormous influx of trolls and scumbags to this forum either (but I do hope for a large influx of civilized [by DF standards] people).

One "problem" with single player sandbox type games is that there's nothing of interest to griefers, so they tend to go elsewhere.

I'm not surprised that a lot of people didn't like the dashing of any hopes for any more Fallout RPG's when the license was taken by the Oblivion with Guns FPS (and no, I've never been to that forum).

[Immortal-D]

In line with the opening post, I want to note that Bay 12 is, paradoxically, the kindest and healthiest Internet community I've ever seen. Even trolls seem to mellow out around here.
I think it's mostly because the community is based on seeing each other and ourselves the way we are - especially our inner monsters, which are present in everyone but accepted almost nowhere.

Here there be monsters masquerading as gods, but they are remarkably respectful and helpful.

[HmH]

Go check out the Unreal World forum. Lack of toxicity is stifling.

True enough. If I interpret what I saw there correctly, being so nice and supportive that it prevents one from saying things straight is the problem you refer to. But I'm pretty sure it's not an issue in our case.

Still, I'm not sure I'd say it was lack of toxicity alone. Toxicity is about being confrontational in a hostile, unconstructive way, wouldn't you agree?
We can have conflict of opinions without toxicity, if members of the community trust each other not to dismiss the other person's opinion out of hand, and thus have no need for backing their words with emotional appeal and hostility.

Just compare a political thread in Bay 12's General Discussions, and an argument somewhere on 4chan's /pol/.
Observe the prevalence of "I think" and questions on Bay 12, the way most things stated directly are things that the post's author is sure he can back up if questioned. Note the way attempts to be confrontational are met calmly and often disarmed.
Observe the abundance of declarative statements, unnecessary expletives, and emotionally charged sentences on 4chan. In particular, note how many people respond to others with an openly dismissive attitude - not even trying to think how to disprove the other person's opinion, but simply stating that it is laughable, usually with an image macro instead of words.
Threads in both communities have their share of canned thoughts - I have yet to see a political discussion without such things - but the language of those discussions is rather telling.

I'm not surprised that a lot of people didn't like the dashing of any hopes for any more Fallout RPG's when the license was taken by the Oblivion with Guns FPS (and no, I've never been to that forum).

It's a Russian forum, so I'm pretty sure no one here happened to visit it, let alone in its heyday. I wish I could use English forums as an example, but NMA was pretty low-quality by comparison, so it didn't change much when Bethesda's games came out.

And I'm pretty sure simple disillusionment with the third game wasn't the reason they left. It was a lively forum, pretty big by Russian standards. Subforums related to the first two Fallouts, other Avellone-made games, and general discussions were quite active at the time, and stayed active after F3 came out; it's just that their overall atmosphere changed.

Before, it was a few dozen people calmly discussing their stuff in a constructive manner, many, though not all, posts showing real brainwork behind them.
Then new members started jumping in on topics, derailing threads with clueless comments, and other new members answered them with equal cluelessness.
Open trolling was absent, as outright hostility was heavily discouraged by the moderators, but not veiled insults or superficiality: banning people for being passive-aggressive or for stupidity alone would be too elitist even for them.

At first, it seemed like things were going on pretty well, but over time, superficial posts got more and more frequent, and newcomers stopped even noticing they could have put more work into stating their opinions.
The old atmosphere used to make people notice their inadequacy, make them want to grow above what they were, to match the best that community could offer - and that atmosphere of perfectionism was gone. Why think your words through if people answering you will not even notice you putting in the effort?

It wasn't all bad, of course, and there were a lot of impressive people among the newcomers, but topics were still flooded with superficial or asinine posts. It clashed with the calm, civilized way things used to be.
Add the obligatory nostalgia, to which few are immune, and within a year you get many people feeling disgusted and losing interest in the forums.

All things taken together, I believe that disappointment was not with that abomination by Bethesda - they'd have left immediately had that been the case - but with what has become of the community.
Now that I look at the case I brought up more closely, I have to admit I'm probably being overly pessimistic in trying to apply it to this forum.

The Fallout forum I mentioned was a bit of an extreme example: what you get when a small insular community dedicated to very old, somewhat intellectual games gets drowned in fans of an AAA shooter. There will most likely be no such whiplash when Dwarf Fortress gets uploaded on Steam: it's still the same game, with the same genre and learning curve.

So... yeah. Disregard the grim prophecies above, I wasn't looking at the whole picture.