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[hector13]

I have always seen inconsistency as a major scum tell, since only a liar would be inconsistent and only scum would lie.

Those are three pretty significant assumptions you’ve made. That last one in particular is a biggy.

[mightymushroom]

If you are a X-Shot Jailkeeper, why did you target me on an even night? If I was scum or third, I still wouldn't have acted because a tracker could have targeted me to confirm the claim. And I feel that the scum team would probably still leave me alive since part of the town is still suspicious about me and they can use that to get me lynched instead of using a kill.

You don't see the WIFOM in both of those statements? Perhaps the tracker would know that you wouldn't act and would target someone else, thus you would act (I didn't take into account that I'm not sure how MM's delay works on Tric's track). And perhaps the scum might consider a live cop a greater threat than a suspicious townie is useful.

Do you see the WIFOM you've poured for the rest of us?

You try to make it out as though you've succeeded in affirming that TricMagic's tracking claim is genuine, but if TM wanted to lie about his action set (rather than lying about what RGU did) then "went nowhere" is exactly what he would have said anyway. Far from proving TM reliable, you've managed to guarantee he is unprovable by preventing any trap RGU might have set for just such an occasion. (Unless someone else comes forward.)



TricMagic,

In fairness to IcyTea, you bear equal blame if this is a case of two would-be investigators tangling each other up. I had a tracking action in the first game I played, and I too was persuaded to use it on someone who pre-announced not doing anything because of abundant suspicion cast the day before. The information gained (went nowhere in that case, too) was trivial and not helpful to completing the larger picture. For this game, I think it would have been more useful to hold off a night. Then you could either have confirmed RGU telling the truth about who he investigates, or found him out if he lies, or had a record of who he was after if he got shot and couldn't report. Tracking him N2 at very best gives you only one of those things; and of course the answer you actually returned is none of them.

[IcyTea31]

You try to make it out as though you've succeeded in affirming that TricMagic's tracking claim is genuine

I'm not saying it's genuine. I'm saying that it's believable and that we should scumhunt elsewhere. As I suspect there's only one mafioso left, I'd have everyone claim their actions and look for the unbelievable one first.

But let's talk about me. Why are you still voting for me, when I provably could not have committed the kill?

[mightymushroom]

For one, I'm not certain you are proven innocent of the kill, although admittedly that would require RGU to also be lying. But TM's result looks the same either way.

For two, I rather think that "scumhunting" TM is one of my better mirrors to see behind the façade of the rest of the players and thus I'm suspicious of how quickly you dismiss it.

I've rather been working along the premise that there is at least one mafioso remaining. It does make me more suspicious of certain pairings, and I would feel better if I had more reliable clearing than you are accepting right now. One thing to bear in mind is that I don't have your PMs, only your reports in thread.

[mightymushroom]

To clarify: at least one mafioso, and the possibility of a fourth anti-town whose alignment is undetermined. Thus I'm combing through for what might be ally- or SK- slips as well.

[mightymushroom]

Response to MaximumSpin's bah: I was the one who made most of those statements, under the impression that it'd be stupid if the town had four roles with protective abilities. I didn't take the possibility of a mafia-sided doctor to account, though, so that's on me.

I count two doctors and you, did I miss a claim?

[IcyTea31]

I don't think you're acting in good faith, Mightymushroom.

For one, I'm not certain you are proven innocent of the kill, although admittedly that would require RGU to also be lying. But TM's result looks the same either way.

For two, I rather think that "scumhunting" TM is one of my better mirrors to see behind the façade of the rest of the players and thus I'm suspicious of how quickly you dismiss it.

The end of the first paragraph answers the second. As for the first, you'd also need Starver to be lying. Certainly there aren't 4 mafiosi and an ally in an 11-player game?

I would feel better if I had more reliable clearing than you are accepting right now. One thing to bear in mind is that I don't have your PMs, only your reports in thread.

Feel better and feel better, I'm working with what I have. A suspicious story still beats an impossible one, which is why I'm asking for claims of actions and rules.

I count two doctors and you, did I miss a claim?

The hypothesis was that there'd be two of every role. I'm not seeing another jailor, and it'd be slightly odd for there to be one, in my opinion.

[IcyTea31]

4 mafiosi and an ally

Or any combination of five or more anti-town roles. 4 is believable, 3 is likely.

[mightymushroom]

I wouldn't need Starver to be lying? I just need him to be (I presume genuinely in this scenario) roleblocked N1. This establishes that the power exists.
Then you could hypothetically kill N2 while RGU sits still and vouches your alibi.

Sure, it would require 3 mafia including Max Spin (with an ally disposed earlier). But not a conspiracy reaching 5 total.

I didn't assign a probability either, I was explaining why I wasn't in a hurry to remove my vote.

The hypothesis was that there'd be two of every role. I'm not seeing another jailor, and it'd be slightly odd for there to be one, in my opinion.

Ah, I get where the extra person is coming from now. I read it and thought you meant you disbelieved Max because you knew of three other protectors. That one is on me.

For one, I'm not certain you are proven innocent of the kill, although admittedly that would require RGU to also be lying. But TM's result looks the same either way.

For two, I rather think that "scumhunting" TM is one of my better mirrors to see behind the façade of the rest of the players and thus I'm suspicious of how quickly you dismiss it.

The end of the first paragraph answers the second.

And I still don't see how I'm supposed to clear TM because of that detail. I am not hypothesizing any scenario in which RGU moved last night, either you blocked him or you didn't but I do believe he went nowhere. Thus TM tracking him to nowhere tells me very little else.

This is analogous, in my mind, to hector observing that Tric is probably alright because Moony the Ally voted for him. I just don't find that connection.

Which in turn is why I say that scumhunting either for or around TricMagic is one of my better mirrors at the moment.

[TricMagic]

It should be noted that it appears both my actions resolved last night. So I actually got 2 on night 2.

[FallacyofUrist]

If an investigative action based on the actions of other players on the same night is delayed, does it give information about actions on the night it was originally used on, or about actions on the night it was delayed to? In other words, is the action itself delayed, or are its results merely given late?

I interpret Delay abilities as delaying the action itself.

[hector13]

This is analogous, in my mind, to hector observing that Tric is probably alright because Moony the Ally voted for him. I just don't find that connection.

This was me making the assumption that the mafia-ally knew who the mafia were, which I have since moved away from.

[randomgenericusername]

By the way, I wasn't told that I was jailed, just that I did nothing and that I was also roleblocked. Maybe jailing and roleblocking gives the same result for the target. I also think it's more probable that we're dealing with 2 scum, a mafia-ally and maybe an hostile third. It's possible that there are actually 2 scum alive and that one is IcyTea (who performed the roleblock) while the other is another player (who performed the kill)

[Starver]

It seems people are needing me to confirm things, as I've been trawling back through D2 stuff.

I'd like to confirm a few things, that seem to be in question:

Starver
If TricMagic is off to sleep, I may as well repeat my question whether you figured out what was bothering you about him N1? (And, implicitly, share?)
I think I saw a reference to learning more in the night, apologies if I got ahead of events before.

I've learnt that Tric is likely either Mad or Bad. Either that or I am (Mad, at least).

There may be someone else messing with me. As a faint possibility, you explicitly raised the question and maybe you'd know something of what I might be told I find. Though relative insanity could violate information sourced in that episodic downtime much easier...

I may expand on that shortly. I've got things to read and notes to check.[/quote]
"Though relative insanity could violate information sourced in that episodic downtime much easier..." => Tric visited me". I got the nod on the visit N2, which seems to be what was needed to be known.

Speaking of which, the first thing entirely of my own to say is that I think one person out there knows exactly my outcome last night (by lots of circumstantial knowledge). It doesn't necessarily flip me, nor them, in but it probably adds up. Still, if you think you recognise my initial announcement, it could be bracketted as layer on and might even help start a nascent web-of-trust. I'm already sure that all claims I've heard are unlikely to be from this person, but I'm open to alternate ideas.

"(by lots of circumstantial knowledge)" blocked, by MM's delay?

And so one big theory is demolished, and another introduced. Just fine-tooth-combing D3 claims (rather than noting the top end of the Topic Summary below, and thus abandoning my originally intended line of questioning). But it looks like you need this desperately. At least to verify likely abilities, if not alignments.

[Starver]

(Messed up the first quote, it seems. Luckily, because I think I went in to edit, not quote, the first post, cut and copied then quit back before finding the second and prepending that, and adding the close-quotetag that I thought I'd not copied over. Now see I must have been examining it 'raw', and if I'd have saved it... Anyway, redone below for clarity.)

It seems people are needing me to confirm things, as I've been trawling back through D2 stuff.

I'd like to confirm a few things, that seem to be in question:

Starver
If TricMagic is off to sleep, I may as well repeat my question whether you figured out what was bothering you about him N1? (And, implicitly, share?)
I think I saw a reference to learning more in the night, apologies if I got ahead of events before.

I've learnt that Tric is likely either Mad or Bad. Either that or I am (Mad, at least).

There may be someone else messing with me. As a faint possibility, you explicitly raised the question and maybe you'd know something of what I might be told I find. Though relative insanity could violate information sourced in that episodic downtime much easier...

I may expand on that shortly. I've got things to read and notes to check.

"Though relative insanity could violate information sourced in that episodic downtime much easier..." => Tric visited me". I got the nod on the visit N2, which seems to be what was needed to be known.

Speaking of which, the first thing entirely of my own to say is that I think one person out there knows exactly my outcome last night (by lots of circumstantial knowledge). It doesn't necessarily flip me, nor them, in but it probably adds up. Still, if you think you recognise my initial announcement, it could be bracketted as layer on and might even help start a nascent web-of-trust. I'm already sure that all claims I've heard are unlikely to be from this person, but I'm open to alternate ideas.

"(by lots of circumstantial knowledge)" blocked, by MM's delay?

And so one big theory is demolished, and another introduced. Just fine-tooth-combing D3 claims (rather than noting the top end of the Topic Summary below, and thus abandoning my originally intended line of questioning). But it looks like you need this desperately. At least to verify likely abilities, if not alignments.
[/quote]