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[RoseHeart]

The Inventors Guild has moved!

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Merchant Guild

-Create new game items and remove obsolete ones -Track all player inventories and gold -Create the Day Phase thread

We represent the the numerical representation of our kingdom's lifeblood, its' economy. That means not only who has what, but what it consists of. We will create the items as they make sense to come into existence, determine how hard they are to obtain, and release them into the world, and when needed, retire what no longer serves the greater good. We are the merchants!

MEMBERS
roseheart
Glass
Maximum Spin
UristMcChladni
bloop_bleep
Thanatos Russ

[RoseHeart]

no poll yet

[Glass]

I'll join.

Current locations of money:
-Glass has 1 Gold
-Imic has 1 Gold

[Maximum Spin]

I will join as well.

[RoseHeart]

I will now open up the responsibility of posting the day phase to anyone. The guild will pay you 2 gold for your service. Make sure to check with the wizards for change of weather(I will ask them to predict it in the game thread) and record the flow of gold. That's it. (A very ez job right now)

For now just wait until a several people had a chance to play since the night phase, maybe at least a day or two. If you want you can call dibs in this thread.


We need to establish some services and guild income streams. We could design an item and sell them. We would work with the rangers guild to disperse the raw ingredients to make them, such as wood or metals.

[UristMcChladni]

I'd like to join, and propose that we remedy the distinct lack of financial instruments being distributed. Specifically, I'd like to establish the following.

1) Lines of Credit for Adventurers - A would be adventurer lacking the funds to finance their endeavor can petition us for money, which we would grant them, with the expectation that the funds be payed back, with a credit establishment surcharge, within an established time frame. This solves the problem of expensive quests being out of reach of the average adventurer. It does create a problem of needing to be able to hold our debtors accountable, so I propose a portion of returns from these credits be set aside for bounties on those who break faith with us. Additionally, should it come to it, we can attempt to establish relationships with other guilds such that we can convince them to sanction the delinquent debtors.

2) Throne Bonds - We can issue bonds to individuals and guilds based off of our ability to buy throne debt and charge interest on it. We would establish the terms of this interest with the throne, and then keep a portion of the interest and distribute the rest to the purchaser of the bond. This has less risk than the above, because the throne is relatively less likely to default on debt.

If these schemes are successful, and we are able to grow substantial funds, we could begin to offer savings accounts with interest based off of allocation into each of these strategies, and only keep enough on hand to pay out portions of the held funds, but that's further down the road. Also, as purchase of property becomes possible we can offer mortgages, and as high risk opportunities become available, i.e. shipping, we can offer insurance.

Also, I'm willing to post day/night phase stuff.

[RoseHeart]

Well I can tell you if the thone ever gets that bad, they will likely tax the guilds. The guilds are the arms, legs, and head of the kingdom but the throne is the center. And you likely wouldn't ask for your arm for a loan. You'd chop off an arm to save the body.

Would anyone like to run as guild master?

[Maximum Spin]

Yes, I'll run for Taxmage General.

[Glass]

Should there be a limit on how many guilds you can join? Because most guilds, from what I can tell, are all staffed by the same people.

[RoseHeart]

Election ballot. Copy Paste your vote

Maximum Spin / 1 / Maximum Spin

[UristMcChladni]

I would also like to run.

[RoseHeart]

Election ballot. Copy Paste your vote

Maximum Spin / 1 / Maximum Spin
UristMcChladni / 1 / UristMcChladni

MS, I haven't seen you talk about $ much. Why should I vote for you?

[Maximum Spin]

MS, I haven't seen you talk about $ much. Why should I vote for you?

Because I will develop a complex economic simulation based on supply and demand and probably drive everyone else into debt.

[bloop_bleep]

I'm joining, and also running for guildmaster. And unlike certain other candidates *cough*Maximum Spin*cough**cough* I have drawn up a valid plan for actually making some money.

It seems the Mage's Guild has already offered a deal to enterprising prospectors to increase their gold yield while generating some decent royalty income for themselves. I suggest we do something similar -- a machine that has a chance of producing small amounts of gold every turn without human input. Of course, this will be a pretty inefficient machine, being about five (or how many? open to suggestions) times less effective than the character mining themselves, but it would produce a relatively steady income for the character, freeing them up for other tasks.

There are two ways to sell this:

• The character pays a certain amount of gold to buy the machine, and then can use it however long they want to.
• The character gets the machine for free (or pays a small up-front cost), but then has to pay royalties on whatever they gain.

I would suggest doing the second choice, since high up-front costs can dissuade people from buying it and we'll be able to keep making income even after all players have bought it. But again, open to suggestions.

As for determining how effective this thing is? We could do an Arms Race roll (probably by roseheart, since he's the king and also the creator of this forum game.) We could also call in a favor with the Mage's Guild, asking them to blow a little bit of fortune our way (perhaps in exchange for a little encouragement.)

Gonna go crunch some numbers to see the best parameters for this. Will be back.

[bloop_bleep]

Sorry for double post, but I have numbers!

For an unassisted mining operation, a player has a 8.75 expected value for gold returns and a 20.83 21.73 standard deviation, for a risk-to-reward ratio of ~2.83 ~2.48. In the real world, a risk-to-reward ratio of 1/3 is considered a standard for a good investment, but this is gold mining, so it's not entirely unexpected.

For a mining operation with the help of the mage's guild, a player has a 9 expected value for gold returns (including royalty fees) and a 5.56 5.09 standard deviation (also including royalty fees). (The vast decrease in the latter is due in part to the elimination of the "nothing" and "huge" outcomes, which contribute significantly to risk.) This gives a risk-to-reward ratio of ~0.62 ~0.57, much, much better than unassisted mining.

Since we're going to be in at least some kind of competition with the Mage's solution, this is pretty bad news. Fortunately, they can't do this forever, since increasing luck costs karma, and they have a limit on how much karma they can use before they need to start creating bad events in order to compensate for it. Also, we have an effective +1 bonus to expected value for our thing, since the character doesn't need to be actively operating it the machine and thus can gain an extra gold. Plus there's probably some kind of additional bonus for the character being able to do something else while the machine is running (anyone have an idea of what gold value we can put on that?) Anyway, I'll try to find an efficient solution to this. I will be back later, with even MOAR NUMBERS!