Quick check for anyone basing their assessment on arena trials: are y'all remembering to edit your weapon raws such that all weapons can be one-handed by all dwarfs prior to running arena trials? I don't believe Tarn ever fixed multigrasp in fort mode, so even dwarfs which should theoretically be able to two-hand large weapons are treated as if they're one-handing. Ran a quick set of trials on pure vanilla with that change, and they seem to mesh with what I remember from my weapons testing back in 2012.
All trials 10v10, all equipment steel.
Injury state: Hale = duh, unharmed. Slightly injured = only bruising of outer tissues. Moderately injured: 1-2 lacerations, broken bones, bruising of internal organs. Severely injured: Anything worse than moderate injury but not fatal with proper medical treatment. Fatally injured: they're not dead yet, but they soon will be. If they bled out or suffocated before I paused, they're counted as dead rather than fatally injured.
Trial 1:
Unarmored
Novice Fighter, Axedwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Greataxe; Side 2: Battleaxe + Shield
Result: Side 2 victory with four survivors: one hale, one moderately injured, one severely injured, one fatally injured.
This fight ended very quickly.
Trial 2:
Unarmored
Grandmaster Fighter, Axedwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Greataxe; Side 2: Battleaxe + Shield
Result: Side 2 victory with two survivors: one moderately injured, one severely injured.
This fight lasted markedly longer than the first.
Trial 3:
Full steel armor: chain shirt, breastplate, greaves, gauntlets, high boots, helm.
Novice Fighter, Axedwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Greataxe; Side 2: Battleaxe + Shield
Result: Side 1 victory with nine survivors: seven slightly injured, two fatally injured.
This fight took less time than the second but more than the first. From what I could see, this was because the second fight had a lot of mutual maiming which slowed things down, while this one was very one-sided: the Greataxe dwarfs were still delimbing and crippling their opponents but the Battleaxe+Shield dwarfs were having trouble doing the same.
Trial 4:
Full steel armor: chain shirt, breastplate, greaves, gauntlets, high boots, helm.
Grandmaster Fighter, Axedwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Greataxe; Side 2: Battleaxe + Shield
Result: Side 1 victory with three survivors: two slightly injured, one moderately injured.
This one took longer than the first three combined. The cause of this was that, with Grandmaster skills and full steel armor, almost every attack failed to do meaningful damage. Literally every single kill on both sides came from one of two things: a dwarf recovering from over-exertion sooner than an opponent and coup-de-gracing them while they were incapable of defending themselves; a dwarf that was badly wounded but not finished in that manner eventually bleeding out or suffocating on the ground.
At one point there were seventeen living dwarfs, all collapsed and unable to continue fighting.
tl;dr with axes: Unarmored and at low skill, shields are lifesavers and heavily favored over two-handing (or "two-handing" in this case). High skill sharply closes the gap, possibly to the point where it could go either way. Adding full sets of armor at low skill tilts it extremely heavily in favor of two-handing. Full armor with high skill turns it into an endurance fight where two-handing is still favored but luck could potentially push it the other way.
Gotta go finish prepping supper, but I'll run some duplicate trials and some with other weapon types later. The high-skill matches are close enough to be worth duplicating, but the low-skill ones were clear-cut.
Trial 5:
Unarmored
Novice Fighter, Hammerdwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Maul; Side 2: Warhammer + Shield
Result: Side 2 victory with four survivors: one moderately injured, three severely injured.
Took much longer than axes, for obvious reasons, and the volume of injuries was much higher. Typically the axe survivors had one or two bad injuries; these guys have laundry lists of broken bones, lacerations, and bruised organs. Same as before, the shields ate enough hits for the shield team to pull ahead.
Trial 6:
Unarmored
Grandmaster Fighter, Hammerdwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Maul; Side 2: Warhammer + Shield
Result: Side 1 victory with seven survivors: two slightly injured, three moderately injured, two severely injured.
This didn't take much more time than Trial 5, but the skill increase was extremely telling, as was the combat log. It broke down like this: the maul dwarfs, when they connected with headshots, either got outright killshots or destroyed the spinal cord, leaving the target helpless. When the warhammer dwarfs connected with headshots, it tended to be a skull fracture + bruising of the spinal cord, but not a fatal or crippling injury. When the former got limb shots they tended to explode said limb. When the latter got limb shots they tended to bruise and break bones.
Trial 7:
Full steel armor: chain shirt, breastplate, greaves, gauntlets, high boots, helm.
Novice Fighter, Hammerdwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Maul; Side 2: Warhammer + Shield
Result: Side 1 overwhelming victory; all ten dwarfs survived: three hale, six slightly injured, one moderately injured.
This is your gentle reminder that material equivalency between weapons and armor tends to drag fights out. It's also a demonstration of why multigrasp allowing you to wrestle isn't a minor thing. Every single death was caused by unranked wrestling.
I'm not kidding. In each case this is what happened: an immense amount of deflected attacks. Maul dwarfs, because they can wrestle with multigrasp (or in this case “multigrasp” as represented by one-handing weapons with their size requirements dialed down without a shield, as there's no mechanical difference apart from it not being bugged in fort/arena), eventually manage to rip the helms off of their opponents and then kill them by inches with head blows that bruise the spine and tear/bruise soft tissue.
Trial 8:
Full steel armor: chain shirt, breastplate, greaves, gauntlets, high boots, helm.
Grandmaster Fighter, Hammerdwarf, Dodger, Shield User, Armor User
Side 1: Maul; Side 2: Warhammer + Shield
Result: Side 2 overwhelming victory; nine survivors: five hale, two slightly injured, two moderately injured.
This is pretty expected. Mauls with skilled users were better because their high size and larger contact area did more damage to soft tissue. Low skill with armor went to mauls because they could wrench off enemy armor and nothing else would do damage. With the skill to deal damage through equivalent-material armor and avoid being grappled, warhammers are superior thanks to their better penetration.
tl;dr with hammers: Shield wins again when everyone sucks and nobody has armor because of free blocks. Two-handing wins when everyone rocks and nobody has armor because it's more likely to kill, paralyze, or delimb rather than breaking bones. When everyone sucks and everyone has armor, two-handing wins because they can pry off enemy armor – if no wrestling was involved nobody would ever die. When everyone rocks and everyone has armor, “shields” win because warhammers are better against armor than mauls.
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Swords played out pretty much as axes did. Repetitions of axe fights indicated that those results were normal rather than outliers.
As a bonus, a speardwarf with a shield and a pikedwarf without, both in full steel and at GrMaster in all relevant skills against various targets.
Vs. Hydra:
Pike: One broken brain, liver, guts, and one lung damaged, four broken skulls, one fractured skull, one broken rib, several times more cuts than the spear. Died.
Spear+Shield: One damaged brain, one damaged lung, two broken skulls, one fractured skull, one broken rib, assorted cuts and bruises. Died.
Pikedwarf died faster but did markedly more damage.
Insertion of second dwarf of each type to finish the hydra fight had these results: second pikedwarf killed his hydra very quickly but succumbed to his wounds shortly thereafter. Second spear+shielddwarf danced around doing minor damage and was eventually killed, but managed to damage the other lung and his hydra suffocated some time later.
Bonus round: Halberd-wielding axedwarf under the same conditions.
Halberd dwarf got a mutual kill; hydra ripped him up like a chewtoy about ten seconds before it bled to death, no follow-up assist necessary. This is because in addition to stabbing vital organs the dwarf was also severing a lot of arteries and nerves with the blade, as well as cutting off one of its feet.
Vs. Dragon at 7-tile starting distance:
Pikedwarf instantly roasted by dragonfire. Duh.
Spear+Shielddwarf blocked the dragonfire, closed to melee, killed his dragon without taking a single blow.
Vs. Dragon at point-blank range:
Pikedwarf instantly roasted again. Duh.
Spear+Shielddwarf doesn't block, instantly roasted.
Vs. Bronze Colossus:
Pikedwarf: Took minor bruising, eventually did enough damage to cut his colossus in half at the lower body.
Spear+Shielddwarf: Eventually got unlucky and had his head knocked off. Did no meaningful damage, just lots of cuts and fractures.
tl;dr of stabbing big things: if it has a breath weapon you want shields, doofus. Remember to have them out. Pikes will kill big things faster because they penetrate deeper and do more damage overall. If you're solo, pike is probably better than spear+shield provided you have high enough skills to actually get those lethal hits. If you don't, don't bother fighting with spear+shield, you'll still die but it will take longer.
The hydra vs. halberd bit is also a good example of why in fort mode it's not a bad idea to use a mixed force of thrust and slash weapons against large, fleshy targets. The spears/pikes tend to deal reliable organ damage, the swords/axes tend to reliably sever arteries/nerves/limbs. Both are factors in TTK, so having a squad set to do both at once will kill shit faster.
In vanilla blunt's alright but not terribly important; if you're using mods or running your own tweaks that add hostile races that aren't small-sized and which have something approximating decent armor, it matters a lot more, especially before you have soldiers good enough that they can cut people to bits straight through steel plate.
On an unrelated note, if you're not using manual dodge to react to incoming attacks or the attack type variations to adjust your attacks based on the situation, it's natural for the character to perform less optimally. It's not as sharp a delineation as unguided vs. guided attacks, but it's still worth doing.