Hmm. We will want a Terror mission type at some point, but I don't think now is the time. Whilst Identify Target would be useful, I feel we may be able to get away without it, and use Recruit Collaborators as our source of information instead- eg, we might perform RC in Egypt or Brazil, which may give us more clues as to the location of EXALT's psi-labs or whatever.
Whilst our experience with Lesser Mutons will bring full-sized Mutons within reach, I think they'd still be Hard. Although, the addition of a DNA token might help.
Carbines are a revision, and one that is unlikely to succeed, I think. As in, we'd get them, but they'd still cost EP.
What I'm thinking about for our mission is two Medium Fighters, a Medium Scout, and a (free) Small Scout for good measure. This requires 7VP, we currently have 5- it would only be an option if we get at least 1VP from the belt base. I figure in light of their new fighter, splitting our forces becomes an even worse idea, and that since 1 MF held off two Talons for a while, 2 MFs might be similarly capable of at the very least keeping them at bay whilst we land- although by the sound of things, victory is unlikely (I'm guessing XCOM got a 7 and spent multiple tokens, whereas the MF is the result of a 5).
As for the mission type and destination... I think RC, targeting... Brazil? The panic might make RC slightly more effective, and it would help us track down EXALT (as mentioned above)