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[Shonai_Dweller]

That brings us out to 28 days total.  At that point, 5 days of testing is likely to discover only minor issues that are quick to fix and there will be a release at 33 days out.  I am, however, going to add 5 more days for various things (roughly 1 day a week).  This puts a release at Friday October the 6th.    I think you could probably put error bars out for -5 to +10 days (October 1st is the absolute earliest, while I will be surprised if it goes beyond October 26th).  Interestingly, that is quite different from my "gut" feeling that it will probably come out in November...

Toady has a conference on October 6th (and another on September 16th). That might throw a wrench into nugget solving.

[KittyTac]

COnsidering there will be conferences and delays, the release may be up for my birthday!

[Urist McVoyager]

Probably by Christmas. In fact, if I were Toady, I might hold it until Christmas as a gift for my loyal fans.

[thvaz]

Probably by Christmas. In fact, if I were Toady, I might hold it until Christmas as a gift for my loyal fans.

Holding the release on purpose is not a gift, it is a punishment.

[KittyTac]

Probably by Christmas. In fact, if I were Toady, I might hold it until Christmas as a gift for my loyal fans.

Holding the release on purpose is not a gift, it is a punishment.

Yea, I see no purpose in this if it's ready.

[Paxiecrunchle]

Posting to watch, this is fascinating reading and finally gives me a reason to want to better myself when it comes to mathematics.

[Fleeting Frames]

Probably by Christmas. In fact, if I were Toady, I might hold it until Christmas as a gift for my loyal fans.

Holding the release on purpose is not a gift, it is a punishment.

It's not like he'd stop working on it (that's not going to happen); just that instead of buggy 45.01 it'd be more polished 45.03 or whatnot.

[Mesa]

No matter how much time Toady puts into the update pre-release, it's going to be a fairly buggy and unstable mess for a good while after it goes live and it has orders of magnitude more eyeballs looking at and finding all sorts of issues.

So odds are if you want to actually play the new update long-term on a relatively 'stable' version, you might be waiting until 2018, I think.
It's not gonna stop me because I'm dying to try out the new features and I'm used to trying out bleeding edge stuff, but still.

[Urist McVoyager]

I might download and play the new version on its first day, but I probably won't be serious about actually playing until a few patches down the road. Especially since I started a fortress yesterday and am working out the bugs in a new design.

I am curious to see what major changes come out during the fixing stage. I remember us getting the psychology rewrite. That was during a patch, rather than a major release.

[Mesa]

Well at htat point it's probably less of a patch/(hot)fix and more of a minor release, really.
But, that's versioning semantics.

[Miuramir]

Toady has a conference on October 6th (and another on September 16th). That might throw a wrench into nugget solving.

The interesting question is whether the above events are best modeled as "delays", or as "inducements to push out a release".  Even under the "delay" model I think there is a reasonable (but far from certain) chance that we will have some sort of release by Thanksgiving, and a few patch iterations to give something more or less playable by Christmas / the end of the year.  If there's incentive to put out the release before the Oct. 6 conference we may get a (possibly quite buggy) version by then. 

[KittyTac]

Toady has a conference on October 6th (and another on September 16th). That might throw a wrench into nugget solving.

The interesting question is whether the above events are best modeled as "delays", or as "inducements to push out a release".  Even under the "delay" model I think there is a reasonable (but far from certain) chance that we will have some sort of release by Thanksgiving, and a few patch iterations to give something more or less playable by Christmas / the end of the year.  If there's incentive to put out the release before the Oct. 6 conference we may get a (possibly quite buggy) version by then.

Personally, the number of craps I give about bugs is <1. DF is still DF no matter what.

[Fleeting Frames]

Feature-killing bugs like the current trap component wear₁ do leave it farther off from 1.0.0 than if there wasn't that bug, though.

1: Not a perfect example, especially with artifact trap component, but the sentiment is there.

[KittyTac]

Feature-killing bugs like the current trap component wear₁ do leave it farther off from 1.0.0 than if there wasn't that bug, though.

1: Not a perfect example, especially with artifact trap component, but the sentiment is there.

Yeah sure, but that AFAIK gets fixed in the initial release of the next release. Haven't used weapon traps too much anyways.

[Mesa]

I don't know, is DF with some serious game-breaking bug or save corruption still DF?
I know minor quirky bugs can be spun into quasi-features, but some people don't really enjoy putting up with major unexpected issues.

To each their own though, I suppose, it's not like $current_version is gonna poof out of existence as soon as $next_version drops.