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[Rockeater]

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[Kashyyk]

Mallet Tap is the path to defeat. Assuming Wreth has invested the same amount into warships and skiffs as we have, we are out matched.

We are not at full capacity with skiffs. They are. We have recently lost a warship. They have not. They likely have 25% more warship power^TM than us, and almost double the skiffs. We will not win a straight fight. Due to Lanchester's Square Law, we will also come out worse, allowing the Wrethi to push their military advantage and take both belt spires. They would then be outproducing us, which means we will lose the war.

[helmacon]

Mallet Tap is the path to defeat. Assuming Wreth has invested the same amount into warships and skiffs as we have, we are out matched.

We are not at full capacity with skiffs. They are. We have recently lost a warship. They have not. They likely have 25% more warship power^TM than us, and almost double the skiffs. We will not win a straight fight. Due to Lanchester's Square Law, we will also come out worse, allowing the Wrethi to push their military advantage and take both belt spires. They would then be outproducing us, which means we will lose the war.

this

[NAV]

We still don't hold any ground at Three Captains. If we let them land more troops we won't gain ground, because our marines will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Not to mention whatever new tech they designed.

If we leave without a fight they will control the airspace and land more troops. Then they will immediately fortify and start harvesting the spire. We will lose through attrition even faster.

If we put up a fight, we are the underdogs, but at least we stand a chance of repelling their attack. There are many historical examples of battles being won by the smaller force. It is better than giving them Three Captains on a silver platter without any fight.

We might as well keep the battlebarge there. It isn't a "capable warship" but it does have guns and it can soak up an incredible amount of firepower, and this is a fairly desperate situation.

[Doomblade187]

Alternatively, we could hold back the turn to refit a super-viper with topaz vanguards, and land a new brigade next turn- our Marines can hold out.

[NAV]

Our marines can't hold out, they have to actively gain ground. Wreth is currently at 4/4. They won't gain any ground if Wreth lands more marines with updated equipment.

Also if we build a super vanguard viper, we should really transfer the vanguard from Anguis's really crappy mount.

[helmacon]

We have destroyed thier fortifications, and it will be half a year before they land. It is reasonable that we will gain ground this year regardless...

[NAV]

Eh, I suppose its possible but unlikely wreth won't reinforce, and possible but very unlikely that our marines could keep advancing despite reinforcements.

I also have serious qualms about putting all our vanguards on one viper when we should be splitting them between our vipers. It provides an obvious best target for wreth to focus fire on. It makes the loss of one ship disastrous to our fleet. It prevents us from splitting into multiple smaller fleets.

[helmacon]

Eh, I suppose its possible but unlikely wreth won't reinforce, and possible but very unlikely that our marines could keep advancing despite reinforcements.

I also have serious qualms about putting all our vanguards on one viper when we should be splitting them between our vipers. It provides an obvious best target for wreth to focus fire on. It makes the loss of one ship disastrous to our fleet. It prevents us from splitting into multiple smaller fleets.

I can change the viper load-out if your willing to pull from the TC.

[Kashyyk]

We still don't hold any ground at Three Captains. If we let them land more troops we won't gain ground, because our marines will be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. Not to mention whatever new tech they designed.

If we leave without a fight they will control the airspace and land more troops. Then they will immediately fortify and start harvesting the spire. We will lose through attrition even faster.

Incorrect. If we leave without a fight we don not lose our fleet, and they may secure the spire. If we stay to fight, our fleet will get mauled and they may secure the spire. We will lose more from accepting an engagement, which is the definition of losing through attrition. Pulling out avoids this.

If we put up a fight, we are the underdogs, but at least we stand a chance of repelling their attack. There are many historical examples of battles being won by the smaller force. It is better than giving them Three Captains on a silver platter without any fight.

  There are many, many, more examples of the larger force winning. The smaller force always has some drastic advantage, such as terrain or experience. We have neither.

We might as well keep the battlebarge there. It isn't a "capable warship" but it does have guns and it can soak up an incredible amount of firepower, and this is a fairly desperate situation.

Doing this would cause us to lose even more, as we'd then also have to build a new transport as well as new warships.

This is not a fight we can win. We will not inflict a Pyrrhic victory. Our ships will be destroyed in short order. For every shot we are firing, they are firing more. That means our forces will deplete at a faster rate than theirs will. This means they will be dealing comparatively more damage than we will as time goes on, until our captains realise the folly of this action and retreat.

[NAV]

Eh, I suppose its possible but unlikely wreth won't reinforce, and possible but very unlikely that our marines could keep advancing despite reinforcements.

I also have serious qualms about putting all our vanguards on one viper when we should be splitting them between our vipers. It provides an obvious best target for wreth to focus fire on. It makes the loss of one ship disastrous to our fleet. It prevents us from splitting into multiple smaller fleets.

I can change the viper load-out if your willing to pull from the TC.

I posted one a while ago that is very similar to your plan but with a different viper loadout. Splitting the vanguards between our (non-discount) vipers. Also upgrading Anguis to Bronzewood.

The other major difference is moving our fleet to kasgyre instead of The Hive (which doesn't really matter, still 1 turn away from Three Captains or Unfinished).
Minor addition is having One-Eyed Will strafe Unfinished instead of doing nothing.
Other minor addition is having Burned Mountain marines fortify and set traps just in case. Probably won't matter but theres a small chance it will.

In this plan the new viper would be sent out turn after next instead of next turn.
In Operation Sunset the new viper would either be sent out the turn after next, or sent out without any frontal armour and with only half its vanguards and no tail kettleguns.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Deployment: Move the whole TC fleet back to Kasgyre. 1 Natalie scout, the rest Coordinated Ambush.

One-Eyed Will moves to Unfinished and Strafes Infrastructure.

Entire force at Three Captains uses Shield Wall.

Marines at Burned Mountain prepare for a somewhat unlikely attack with Prepaired Bait and Strike but don't advance or waste grenades.

Production:
Topaz Vanguard (3c, 5o)
Topaz Trim Pair (1c)
Topaz Med Core (18c)
Signal Flashers x3 (1c, 1o, 1 squad)
Bronzewood Viper Medium Mount Hull (5o 18w)
1 Bronzewood trim web conversion (4w)
Bronzewood Medium Mount Conversion (1o 3w)

Total cost: 23c, 12o, 25w

Fit Natalie X with a Comm Officer

Refit Viperidae to include a bronzewood medium mount with topaz vanguard.
Remove 4 topaz trim crystals, 2 of which should have never been there and 2 of which are replaced by the new mount.
Also remove 4 kettleguns.

Completely strip the Anguis.
Name the new hull Anguis II, since it has direct lineage from Anguis but doesn't have any original parts.
-Comm Officer
-Topaz Med core
-Topaz S lift
-2 topaz trim webs
-8 Topaz Trim Crystals
-Topaz Vanguard Cannon
-3 Topaz Kettleguns, 2 front 1 back.
-3 Kettleguns, 2 front 1 back
-2 light copper armour
-6 reams silk

That should leave
-Topaz Med core
-Topaz S lift
-10 Topaz Trim Webs
-6 topaz trim crystals
-1 topaz vanguard
-8 kettleguns
-2 comm officers
-Mothballed Anguis Hull (1 small vanguard mount, 10 trim web slots)

Next turn we should have enough to send out another viper. All bronzewood, all topaz except for the kettleguns, topaz vanguard.

In the future we can equip the mothballed Anguis similar to Causinae as a lower tier Viper.

[NAV]

Snip

If we pull out we won't lose the fleet. Chance of losing the spire and marines goes way up.
If we stay chance of losing the fleet is high. Chance of losing the spire and marines goes way down.
If they are already ahead of us in terms of fleet size, and they gain even more resources to spend, that does not lead to victory.

I don't think the battle is nearly as hopeless as you think it is. Quality of ships matters. Two of our vipers are mostly topaz, 1 is bronzewood, and 1 has a topaz vanguard. That's way better than a normal corvette. Our Natalies are also better than their skiffs.

Ophidian and its two Natalies likely did some damage to their fleet last turn. Not a lot, but some. A couple skiffs gone or a corvette damaged.
Several turns ago we destroyed one of their corvettes. Not as recently as Ophidian was lost, but within the same building cycle leading up to this battle.

Our kettleguns still have the initial 1 or 2 minute massive ROF advantage. Combined with coordinated fire this will do more damage to Wreth in the opening minutes than they do to us, helping equalize the fleets.

Either they shoot Jupiter, spending a lot of firepower to bring down an empty transport while our corvettes shoot them. Or they ignore Jupiter while its 4 kettleguns shoot them, contributing a bit to our firepower. Keeping Jupiter in the fight is a good tactical decision.

[helmacon]

last time we had a lone skiff attack at the UF, some sort of apperation drove it off. I think we ought to have it just sit tight. Will vote for bug out if that is changed.

[NAV]

That is cause we left it there for too long.
It was: go there and scout, then stay and strafe.

This time it will be:
Go there and strafe, then leave.

It was the time staying there that was the problem. Not the attacking.

Edit:

Spoiler: Cost analysis of splitting vanguards between ships VS putting all vanguards on one ship (click to show/hide)

Split the vanguards between ships:
Refit Anguis cost:
5o, 18w (bronzewood hull)
4w (trim web conversion)

Refit Viperidae cost:
1o, 3w (medium mount conversion)

New Viper cost:
5o, 18w (bronzewood hull)
18c (topaz core)
5o 3c (topaz vanguard)
6o (armour)
12 silk
4w (1 trim web)

=22o, 21c, 47w, 12s
=102 total

Load all vanguards onto the same ship:
new viper cost:
7o, 18w (bronzewood hull)
4w (1 trim web)
18c (topaz core)
5o 3c (topaz vanguard)
6o (armour)
12 silk
12o 6c (2 more vanguards)
2o 2c (tail kettleguns)

=32o, 29c, 22w, 12s
=95 total

Splitting them up costs slightly more total resources. But it leads to a significantly better fleet and costs less ore.

[Kashyyk]

Snip

I disagree that our marines are doomed if we pull out the fleet. They are clearly capable enough to gain ground, and the main reason we were delayed is due to the defences they've set up. Not the number of marines we had to deal with. I don't think more marines will be ther much of an issue.

There is a big difference in being severely behind in resources and fleet strength, compared to just resources. We'd actually have a fighting chance with one of them.

I've always known that our Vipers best their superskiffs one on one, however I'm also fairly certain that our Vipers are comparatively more expensive , thus losing one viper is a bigger blow to us than losing one superskiff is to them. Whatever number it is, they've got four vipers worth of superskiffs to our three. Similarly, our Natalie's are not good enough to match 2:1 odds.

Finally, they've had a base crystal enhancement since the beginning of the war, so anything of ours that is not Topaz is automatically inferior.

Regarding the Jupiter, it only deals two vanilla skiffs worth of damage, and it obviously doesn't carry any marines so it's very safe to ignore. Conversely, it's a transport and that makes it a worthwhile target regardless. I'd personally leave it until last, but as the Idiot Ball is strong in this game I don't actually know how they'd react to it. I don't want to risk losing it though because it's very expensive.