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[Starver]

@Sheb: pretty much
@LW: saw that, read that, and if I've missed the matrix I want on there (or multiple cross-referenceable singular tables from which said matrix can be derived) then I'd appreciate the clue as to which side-panel or link-to-PDF hides it, as nothing I tried (so far) heads in the right direction.

Basically, something like:

Country	>Belgium	>Bulgaria	>Czech Republic	>…
Belgium>	/	€45b	€2b	…
Bulgaria>	€43b	/	€125b	…
Czech Republic>	€50b	€15b	/	…
… >	…	…	…	/

(And then I intend to add Rest-Of-World details to each EU member, perhaps even the top-dog countries and top-block non-EU supranational entities, but if I can't extract the internal markets then there's no point in even trying to disentangle the rest. I have a feeling I'll need to go through individual reports for each member-state, though, extracting as much equivalent-and-parallel data as can be gotten without encountering obvious mismatches and inequalities...)

That said, it's not important, and only tangential to UK internal affairs, so don't stress yourselves over it. Just thought I'd say something here rather than get real work done, for tomorrow. And mow the lawn. And rewrite the map app to work on Android. And read my mail. And level up my Finger Racer.

[smjjames]

I suppose this is the go-to thread atm for brexit.

This MP says that Brexit may never happen due to party divisions. However, article 50 was invoked months ago and so, does he really mean a hard brexit? Seems like the guy is fooling himself because the proccess has already begun and it would be political suicide for Theresa May to suddenly turn around and cancel brexit, if it's possible to at this point.

[redwallzyl]

I suppose this is the go-to thread atm for brexit.

This MP says that Brexit may never happen due to party divisions. However, article 50 was invoked months ago and so, does he really mean a hard brexit? Seems like the guy is fooling himself because the proccess has already begun and it would be political suicide for Theresa May to suddenly turn around and cancel brexit, if it's possible to at this point.

Its a bit of a damned if you do damned if you don't situation. they never really wanted it and they have no plan now that they are locked into it.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Can we really even say they're "locked in"? Sure, that's what the political rhetoric and to a degree even the letter of the law says, but...so what? Interconnection with the EU exists on practically every level, even for a nation as distant as Ukland. It'd be a hell of a thing for...whatever body of the EU could claim the authority...to just wake up one day and be like "Well, we tried, all relations with Britain are now unilaterally severed".

I'm with Vince here, It's Fucking Nothing is still a strong outcome to all of this.

[Loud Whispers]

"-Says leading libdem."

ayy lmao, Libdems are irrelevant. They tried stopping the leave vote, then tried blocking the article 50 trigger on the eve of the vote, then argued that leave didn't mean leaving the single market (despite the blessed ham and clegg embarrassingly campaigning prior to the outcome, that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market), and they've never given up since. Anything's possible, but the times of chaos haven't arrived yet. And we need times of chaos before shit falls off the end of the world. Notably in the vote against leaving the single market, there were 49 labour rebels who defied Corbyn, but no Tory rebels. Losing 101 to 322, it looked dank on the unity front - in so far as all could agree there could be no half-arsing an in or out of the yuropian union

they never really wanted it and they have no plan now that they are locked into it.

The Cameron faction never wanted it, but fuck them the country and their backbenchers wanted it, and now their backbenchers are frontbenching xD

[smjjames]

Hypothetically, CAN it be reversed at any point, or did they cross the point of no return (this seems to be the EU's position) by activating article 50? This is assuming that domestic politics isn't a barrier. Of course though, if the EU isn't willing to allow them to reverse it, they won't be able to.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Article 50's enforcement provision states that if they don't complete negotiations in two years it just sort of happens, unless the European Council and Britain agree to extend it. Given the Oh Fuck that would occur from some of these treaties just vanishing, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.

So, 2019.

Of course, the EU has sovereign authority over itself, and it wouldn't be a violation of anything I can see if they just amended Article 50 to undo Brexit. And so all is uncertainty.

[smjjames]

Article 50's enforcement provision states that if they don't complete negotiations in two years it just sort of happens, unless the European Council and Britain agree to extend it. Given the Oh Fuck that would occur from some of these treaties just vanishing, I wouldn't be surprised if that happened.

So, 2019.

Of course, the EU has sovereign authority over itself, and it wouldn't be a violation of anything I can see if they just amended Article 50 to undo Brexit. And so all is uncertainty.

Article 50 in perpetuity when?

The EU would have to agree to extend it in order for it to be extended in the first place.

[Starver]

and it would be political suicide for Theresa May to suddenly turn around and cancel brexit, if it's possible to at this point.

If May lasts until the actual end of the Article 50 period, it's just because nobody else wants/gets to be in charge when it's the easiest thing to just keep Theresa's political career on life-support over the bumpy patch to either do the driving over the cliff (for those that want to go base-jumping) or to get so close that enough people get vertigo and bail (for those who don't).

They say that political lives end in failure, but if May's one isn't a total humdinger of a clusterfuck by the time she leaves office then I'm gonna bet on her doing Who Do You Think You Are? and finding Erik Weisz in her family tree…


As for perpetuity or reversal of the process, I see the price for reversal being adoption of integration policies that would make UKIPpers wince... Though depends on how far down the line this happens (half a generation would do it, assuming no other major world-changing events, just this slog) until it doesn't matter what the 'KIPs think.

Much less painless to state that it was all a Conservative joke right now. But obviously nobody is in that position, either.

[Loud Whispers]

I can definitely see it 50 years from now we'll be celebrating the anniversary of the first attempt to trigger article 50 and brexit

[martinuzz]

It'll be called the 50th of May celebrations

[Sheb]

I stumbled into this today and I was immediately reminded of LW's scoffing at the LibDem wanting to stay in the Single Market. (It's a compilation of clips from Leave politicians, including Da Nigel, saying voting leave doesn't necessarily means leaving the single market).

[scriver]

I believe you conveniently forgot about the first part of said LW' s scoffing at the lib dems, which concerned them supposedly using "leaving definitely means not staying in the single market" as a threat against voting yes, a precedent which the scoffing at them now saying the opposite hinges upon.

[Sheb]

To be fair to them it seems like their threat was founded since the UK seems now on a path to escape the market. You don't blame the guy that warned that dropping out of school will lead to a shitty job for trying to get the droppee a good job.


But yeah, it's more a case of "everyone got eggs on its face".

[scriver]

Well they aren't trying to fight the fire, they're now saying there won't be a fire.