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Author Topic: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May  (Read 42315 times)

Leafsnail

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #225 on: June 09, 2017, 12:42:21 pm »

The DUP will probably just want more funding for Northern Ireland and an open border with the RoI after Brexit. The second demand could make the negotiations very difficult, especially when the Brexiters in her own party could rebel  against a deal that allows free movement.

The bigger issue that I see is that the DUP are insanely toxic in Britain, with their hardline religious views and terrorist past.
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NJW2000

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #226 on: June 09, 2017, 12:43:55 pm »

So this minority government idea with DUP, will that mean that gay marriages are going to be banned in the UK (Cameron refused to cooperate with DUP because of that), abortion made illegal again, and will they retreat from Paris, like Trump did (DUP are notorious climate change deniers)? If that's the case, I suggest kicking the UK out of the EU before they can even say 'Brexit'. No negotiations, just kick and full boycot.
Sheesh... I think (hope) the Tories will be too metrosexual/socially liberal to let DUP tosspots have their way on stuff like that... I mean, even with the DUP they have a 3-seat margin, so stuff like that probably wouldn't go through...


Wiser heads than I have told me that the DUP will probably just want their way with Ireland, Leafsnail's probably right. And Ireland will be tricky around Brexit.
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Grim Portent

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #227 on: June 09, 2017, 12:47:42 pm »

It is unlikely, to say the least.

While the Conservatives are the only main party that would have a significant chunk of MPs who would back such policies, a substantial chunk of it would staunchly oppose them and likely refuse to vote in favour in parliament. Ruth Davidson, the head of the Scottish Conservatives is a lesbian for example, and while she isn't part of the Westminster establishment (due to being a MSP and therefore not standing for Westminster) she isn't alone among the party in being fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

The likely outcome is that the DUP back May in forming her government, then support it on a case by case basis, essentially leaving the government a minority one anytime the DUP dislikes what it wants to do. Also, due to EVEL being passed when Cameron was PM, any matters only considered relevant to England can only be voted on by English MPs, so May might actually have a harder time passing bills that affect the English alone than she will passing UK wide bills, a quirk of the way MPs are spread this time around.


The DUP will probably just want more funding for Northern Ireland and an open border with the RoI after Brexit. The second demand could make the negotiations very difficult, especially when the Brexiters in her own party could rebel  against a deal that allows free movement.

The bigger issue that I see is that the DUP are insanely toxic in Britain, with their hardline religious views and terrorist past.

My understanding is the DUP want to close the border with Ireland, not keep it open.
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Leafsnail

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #228 on: June 09, 2017, 12:53:36 pm »

Nah they're not that crazy. The open border is an important part of the peace settlement and closing it would lead to blood on the streets.
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hector13

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #229 on: June 09, 2017, 12:57:30 pm »

They are basically the NI nationalist party, with pretty solid religious leaning too.

They also apparently favour a soft Brexit so... yeah, Mrs. May has kinda fucked up on a grand scale. I find it hard to believe she's going to survive politically having just presided over a massive collapse in opinion polls and having to team up with something of an extreme party to get things done.
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inteuniso

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #230 on: June 09, 2017, 01:01:42 pm »

I mean, with weather only projected to get more extreme over the next three years with the solar grand minimum, I can't see brexit continuing. There's simply not enough agricultural area (greenhouses/etc. since land clearing is mostly[?] done on the isle) that can be created in the UK in time to guarantee food security to everyone. Pre-EU comparisons are also pre-Irish independence times, as well as times of less controls on food imports.

The discussions will continue until the weather causes too much damage to fix without the help of the greater union.
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Sheb

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #231 on: June 09, 2017, 01:09:18 pm »

You know LW was just kekking around when he talked of a EU blockade, right?
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Grim Portent

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #232 on: June 09, 2017, 01:11:26 pm »

You know LW was just kekking around when he talked of a EU blockade, right?

Blockade or no, prices would take a hefty bump and a lot of families in Britain are already relying on foodbanks to survive. The effects on the poorest parts of society won't be pretty, especially with an anti-welfare party in charge.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #234 on: June 09, 2017, 02:24:09 pm »

So this minority government idea with DUP, will that mean that gay marriages are going to be banned in the UK (Cameron refused to cooperate with DUP because of that), abortion made illegal again, and will they retreat from Paris, like Trump did (DUP are notorious climate change deniers)? If that's the case, I suggest kicking the UK out of the EU before they can even say 'Brexit'. No negotiations, just kick and full boycot.
Yes please

Blockade or no, prices would take a hefty bump and a lot of families in Britain are already relying on foodbanks to survive. The effects on the poorest parts of society won't be pretty, especially with an anti-welfare party in charge.
Would take a hefty bump from what? You bring up a good point and I think it's worthwhile to look at this further. Weaker sterling has increased food prices by 0.2% thus far, which isn't all that noticeable, owing to how fiercely all our retailers compete with one another to keep prices down. Looking into this further Beeb suggests that the hundreds of thousands using food banks would not disappear with favourable fluctuations in the economy, largely owing to the long term trend of incomes for most people stagnating or declining while living costs increase:
Quote
Since 2007, the cost of food has gone up by 8% in real terms. Research conducted by Cambridge University shows that the price of healthy foods has gone up more in the last 10 years than unhealthy foods. Public Health England acknowledges that the price of food is an important part of
why people eat as they do.   In contrast, incomes have stagnated or even declined in value. The Government’s data show that disposable income for the poorest 20% of UK households has gone down every year since 2004. The 2013 Living Costs and Food Survey showed that the poorest 10% of households only spent an average of £46 on food and non-alcoholic drinks each week but that accounted for 15% of their household expenditure. In contrast, the richest 10% spent more than £80 but this amounted to less than 7% of their expenditure.
From the food foundation
Also from the report is that we don't really know why this is happening for millions because the gov isn't collecting data and seems to be avoiding collecting any data in order to justify inaction

Also while the overall price for foods is not terribly noticeable, certain food produces that are not produced anywhere else in the world but European nations will no doubt increase in price, probably regardless of deals struck, since customs is customs and customs cost. French wine, cheese, Spanish tomatoes, pork and other stuff like Dutch beers. How much will they increase? I dunno

*EDIT
Hahahaha DUP look like UKIP on overdrive and they hold the cards against May what is this timeline lmao

*EDITx2
Just cried a little watching Nick Clegg hear he'd lost
RIP in peace
That is seriously one of the slowest, most torturous career declines I have ever witnessed
« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 02:52:28 pm by Loud Whispers »
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Loud Whispers

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« Last Edit: June 09, 2017, 03:26:19 pm by Loud Whispers »
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smjjames

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #236 on: June 09, 2017, 03:07:09 pm »

Strawpoll: Should Theresa May resign after her lacklustre win?

I thought the vote amounts were supposed to be hidden until you actually voted? Because it shows me the total.

Edit: You linked to the result page by accident LW.
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smjjames

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #237 on: June 09, 2017, 03:22:10 pm »

In what is probably the equivalent of the whole of NYC flipping Republican, in a final sting, Labor has taken Kensington from the Tories by, get this, 20 votes.

The analogy may not be a great (or accurate?) one, but it sounds like a hell of a sting since it's supposed to be a Tory stronghold.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #238 on: June 09, 2017, 03:36:51 pm »

In what is probably the equivalent of the whole of NYC flipping Republican, in a final sting, Labor has taken Kensington from the Tories by, get this, 20 votes.
Muh voting doesn't matter ppl btfo

The analogy may not be a great (or accurate?) one, but it sounds like a hell of a sting since it's supposed to be a Tory stronghold.
Not analogous to the whole NYC flipping Republican, given that NYC is like a whole London
Not much of a sting given how Kensington voted 37,601 Remain to 17,138 Leave, and Kensington is in the heart of London full of rich liberals which do not a make a Tory stronghold

Grim Portent

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Re: UK Snap Election Thread - Darth May
« Reply #239 on: June 09, 2017, 03:40:34 pm »

Would take a hefty bump from what? You bring up a good point and I think it's worthwhile to look at this further. Weaker sterling has increased food prices by 0.2% thus far, which isn't all that noticeable, owing to how fiercely all our retailers compete with one another to keep prices down. Looking into this further Beeb suggests that the hundreds of thousands using food banks would not disappear with favourable fluctuations in the economy, largely owing to the long term trend of incomes for most people stagnating or declining while living costs increase:
Quote
Since 2007, the cost of food has gone up by 8% in real terms. Research conducted by Cambridge University shows that the price of healthy foods has gone up more in the last 10 years than unhealthy foods. Public Health England acknowledges that the price of food is an important part of
why people eat as they do.   In contrast, incomes have stagnated or even declined in value. The Government’s data show that disposable income for the poorest 20% of UK households has gone down every year since 2004. The 2013 Living Costs and Food Survey showed that the poorest 10% of households only spent an average of £46 on food and non-alcoholic drinks each week but that accounted for 15% of their household expenditure. In contrast, the richest 10% spent more than £80 but this amounted to less than 7% of their expenditure.
From the food foundation
Also from the report is that we don't really know why this is happening for millions because the gov isn't collecting data and seems to be avoiding collecting any data in order to justify inaction

Also while the overall price for foods is not terribly noticeable, certain food produces that are not produced anywhere else in the world but European nations will no doubt increase in price, probably regardless of deals struck, since customs is customs and customs cost. French wine, cheese, Spanish tomatoes, pork and other stuff like Dutch beers. How much will they increase? I dunno

Tariffs, customs and so on. Anything originating from or shipped through the EU would become more expensive.

25% of UK food consumed comes from the EU, and unless we get a trade deal, which is unlikely given the way the EU handles trade with other nations, basically being a 'Norway deal or our flat rate for non-members' situation, we'd fall back on WTO rules. Now, since the UK and EU are members of the WTO, they have to give each other a special rate on import/export duty. It's apparently an average of 2% on non-agricultural products, and an average of 22% on agricultural ones. There is a lot of range in that though, with wine being just 14% and beef 59%. (Figures taken from https://www.ft.com/content/7f0c732c-93b8-11e6-a80e-bcd69f323a8b?mhq5j=e2)

Obviously the exact rate will depend on the exact proportions of stuff we import, but we import mostly fruit/veg (£8.7 billion in 2014) and meat (£6 billion 2014), followed by beverages (£5.2 billion 2014). (https://www.theatlas.com/charts/S1vGKAcS)

Tariffs also hit in the opposite direction of course and will hurt food exports, 40% of which we normally sell to the EU. Lot of farmers and brewers will be hit hard by that as their normal export market looks elsewhere for suppliers.

This isn't going to cause some kind of price explosion, except maybe in regards to meat like beef and lamb. But it's going to cause an increase of food prices across the board, and that's the last thing people already struggling to pay their rent, their car insurance, their TV license and so on need. It'll be mostly irrelevant to anyone who's paid well and has a good house with a low rate mortgage, beyond giving them a reason to bitch about the price of steak, but they're not the people who need worried about, it's the single mothers on zero hours contracts, the people struggling to keep the heating on and feed their kids, the elderly living on state pensions and so on who'll suffer. There's tons of people struggling to stay above the poverty line, and for some of them it will only take a small rise in the cost of essentials to sink under it.
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There once was a dwarf in a cave,
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