So back on June 2nd when Lenglong and Shakerag fused, we had this vote count:
FallacyOfUrist - Tea, doll, hector13
flabort - Persus13
Lenglon-Shakerag - 4maskwolf, Shakerag
Tea - Pozzai, Jack A T
TheBiggerFish - Tiruin, TheDarkStar,
TolyK - FallacyOfUrist
By mid-day on June 4th, we're to this:
FallacyOfUrist - Tea, doll, hector13,
flabort - Persus13,
4maskwolf - Lenglon
Lenglon-Shakerag - Shakerag,
Tea - Pozzai, Jack A T,
TheBiggerFish - TheDarkStar, Pozzai
TolyK - FallacyOfUrist
The above is about a day and a half prior to the original deadline. Flabort then shows back up, readwalls & votes TDS. doll+4mask begin flabort's wagon; Lenglon unvotes 4mask; Tiruin gets back on TBF; Persus votes TolyK. By the time of Jack's post with his clear antecedent for his eventual FoU vote, in which Jack votes flabort, the vote count is as follows (less than 12 hours to deadline):
FallacyOfUrist - Tea, hector13
flabort - doll, 4maskwolf, Jack A T
Lenglon-Shakerag - Shakerag,
TheBiggerFish - TheDarkStar, Pozzai, Tiruin
TheDarkStar - flabort
TolyK - FallacyOfUrist, Persus13
Following that, Lenglon puts flabort at 4 votes; there's an influx of extension votes. Pozzai and I move to flabort as well as hammer the extension like 4-5 hours til deadline. Persus moves over to FoU. (Jack's vote on the below VC is in italics b/c the mod forgot to count it as far as I can tell.)
Day has been Extended!
Vote Count
------------------------
FallacyOfUrist - hector13, Persus13,
flabort - doll, 4maskwolf, Jack A T, Lenglon, Pozzai, Tea,
Lenglon-Shakerag - Shakerag,
TheBiggerFish - TheDarkStar, Tiruin,
TheDarkStar - flabort,
TolyK - FallacyOfUrist,
No Lynch -
Not Voting - origamascienceguy, TolyK, TheBiggerFish
Extension - TheBiggerFish, flabort, 4maskwolf, Tiruin, FallacyOfUrist, Shakerag, TheDarkStar, TolyK, Pozzai, Tea,
9 To Hammer. Day Ends on Wednesday, June 7th at 8:00 PM CST. There is no Extension available.
Persus, Lenglon and doll were all vocally against an extension at some point. I don't really remember if Jack was, but he wasn't FOR it. hector was indifferent. But the reason I bothered to color the extension vote count is that I think it's potentially meaningful that, without the last five odd people voting to extend, we'd have just lynched flabort before he ever showed back up to react to his wagon.
Jack then switches to Fallacy at like 4am on June 7th (
here) and no one else actually changed their vote by
end of day besides flabort voting for doll.
Vote Count
------------------------
doll - flabort,
FallacyOfUrist - hector13, Persus13, Jack A T,
flabort - doll, 4maskwolf, Lenglon, Pozzai, Tea,
Lenglon-Shakerag - Shakerag,
TheBiggerFish - TheDarkStar, Tiruin
TheDarkStar - flabort,
TolyK - FallacyOfUrist,
Not Voting - origamascienceguy, TolyK, TheBiggerFish,
Shorten - doll, Persus13,
Oppose Shorten - hector13,
I don't think 4mask as mafia ever latches on to flabort as a wagon option when there's already competing FoU and TBF major wagons. So my analysis is predicated on flabort being non-mafia.
What I'm getting at regarding Jack's voting behavior on D1 is that he pushed me for at least 50% of D1, then voted flabort 12 hours before the original DL and did not vote to extend deadline to give flabort more opportunity to respond. He does switch votes to FoU at the end of D1/make a counterwagon a more viable option -- but I'm just unconvinced that that wasn't bussing that worked out beautifully. When I look at Jack's big readwall of mid-D1 where he has me/flabort/TBF as most scummy (teehee rule of 3), 4mask as null leaning vaguely positive and FoU as null leaning vaguely negative, I can see Jack as mafia with the flipped mafia creating a slightly distanced path to victory. There's not any interactions that I recall amongst Jack and flipped mafia that make me think it's implausible that they're aligned.
We have DarkStar/Tiruin voteparking mafia!TBF literally all day; for that reason among others, don't think they're ever mafia. Additionally we have FoU legit wanting TolyK to die; not ever partners.
I have no idea if Persus knew when he voted FoU in the first place that the deadline extension had been voted for or not -- if he did then it's more non-partnered indicative; otherwise it's a more plausible ~I'm voting FoU rn to look good after momentum is clearly against flabort~ and then ~better stick with this now that flabort is actually defending himself and hope town doesn't come around~.
Hector's D1 being focused almost entirely on FoU/TBF just...looks good to me? He was voteparked on FoU all day and legit really annoyed at TBF, who was ignoring him entirely. The way FoU anchored his game so much around Hector's theory question seemed more like buddying someone you're not aligned with, too. Hector's general emotional trajectory this game doesn't fit with what I think it would be if he was doing nothing but bus D1. I did have some reservations over what the heck he was doing in the space where flabort would've been lynched at the original DL, which I called him out for at the time, but my read on that now is more that he was disconnected from the game narrative in a way that's indicative of him not pushing an agenda.