TBF
Pretty sure I said how I want his reads
If I kill Pozzai N1, who are you going to have content to pursue going into D2?
I might need to reread D1 to find content on D2, depending on what comes up.
Why not do it now?
TheBiggerFish: three+ people are getting killed. One of these three is decided by the lynch and two are decided by me.
Therefore, I need data on at least three players painting them as suspicious. You're pushing on, at most, two players. In the absence of more to go on I'll kill inactive or useless players, the same as a lynch would. This is bad, because those players aren't necessarily scummy.
As distasteful as it is to say 'go scumhunt more', you should go scumhunt more.
Shakerag:
Persus13:
As far as scum goes, I don't know, man. It's D1. Most of us are experienced enough to not do something totally scummy (at least on D1). Statistically speaking, we're going to lynch an oddball* townie on D1. Good scum analysis isn't going to start until D2, when we've all had a chance to fire off some abilities.
I'm pretty sure NQT or someone did an analysis awhile back and found this was surprisingly not true. I'll need to go dig that up to be sure. Otherwise i like this post. HUnting those trying to push lynches of town was my go-to strategy for awhile.
As my vacation calmed down, I decided to look into something I'd been considering looking into for some time: D1 lynch effectiveness.
It is common knowledge that D1 lynches are almost always against inexperienced townies. We expect mislynches D1. We've spoken for years of how we almost always mislynch D1, and the consistency of our town lynches has been a major motivator of years of efforts to change how we play D1 (and, in fact, in general). Everyone knows most D1 lynches are against townies, and we handle D1 accordingly.
There's just one problem with the common belief: it's wrong. In non-BMs, we usually lynch non-town D1. In the past 4 board pages of non-BM games (about 1 and a half to 2 years of games), we have lynched some sort of non-town D1 56% of the time. Even omitting BYOR 13, where a scum lynch was forced where a town lynch would likely have occurred, and my BYOR, where my failure to give public wincons led to the lynch, it's 52%.
See the results of my search here. I used all non-BMs (we already know BMs actually do almost always start with a mislynch) in the past 4 pages that completed D1, aside from the King/Prince of the Mafia games, non-Mafia games, games with a non-lynch-based D1 voting system (Orbfalls and Worse Things), Mini Mafia Madness (sorry, not untangling that, and I can't even figure out what the alignments are), and the Guardians (a rare bastard mod where the mod was lynched).
@Persus again: The context of D1 is different on D2. Thus, rereading it now doesn't help me.
Re-reading D1 now does help you, precisely because the context of D1 is different now to what it will be in the future. That is why it is helpful to read parts of D1 again on D1
and on D2
and on D3 etc.
Doll asked for a reads list a while ago. Activity's going to be sparse for today and Saturday(and none at Sunday)(blame my horrible time management skills), but I think I have the time to provide that.
Me: Town, for sure.
hector13, Jack A T, 4maskwolf: Town. Scumhunting!
doll: Townier than before. She's actually scum hunting now, so that's a plus. A similar level applies to several less active hunters, Lenglon, Tiruin, Persus, possibly Pozzai, Tea, and flabort, who I haven't looked into enough. Maybe Fish. He looks to be attempting scum hunting.
Origamiscienceguy, Shakerag, TheDarkStar: Neutral. They kinda need to post more.
TolyK. I'm not exactly sure what's going on with him. Possible third party.
Wow, there are a lot of people in this game. I'm losing track. Also makes it hard to develop reads on everybody.
So this is a perfect scumtell and I'm 320% happier with a FoU lynch now.
Consider:
1) FoU has limited time to play the game
2) FoU has a number of very weak, and some unusual reads, including on active players like TolyK in particular
FoU
3) In their limited time, FoU
did not pursue a single lead towards getting more information on these readsThis suggests to me that FoU
does not care particularly about knowing more about the game or player's alignments, and
does care about responding to pressure.
Unfortunately for FoU, I don't want to lynch people who don't answer my questions, I want to lynch people who I think are scum i.e. who I don't see has scumhunting.
For a parallel case, consider my case on scum!4maskwolf in the recent BM.
Shakerag ... 4) I actually kind of think he's town anyway
What makes you think he's town?
Because I don't think he's not town.
Shakes is playing to his town meta, and he hasn't deviated from my expectations.
He's providing information unbidden, rather than in response to pressure.
It's not a
strong read, but it is a town read.
flabort I might go for a deep gameplay analysis in a bit if nothing develops otherwise, else: 1) Contributed a lot to the early game ...
I'd like to challenge this statement: what exactly has he done in the early game? All I can remember is RVS stuff and complaining a bit... right?
I've actually had a gut feeling that flabort is scum this whole game, and it comes back every time I read over other players interacting with him.
However, when I read flabort's early game content I saw high-quality RVS stuff in RVS, and then he sort of trailed off.
Like I said, his towniness is dependent on his continuing what had the makings of a strong daygame; trailing off on the strength of his RVS is an easy direction to see scum!flabort as going in.
FallacyOfUrist
Useless, active lurking, now inactive scum
Should spend less time writing bad short fiction and more in this game, because he's losing it
... what?
I checked everyone's posts when I was making that reads list.
FoU's activity suddenly cuts off, but the most recent post was some 5000+ word short story in a random thread with nothing to do with mafia.
It wasn't a good short story either, but I guess I'd have been more suspicious if it was and he still didn't have time for us?
Anyway, it's a throwaway joke/bullying. FoU is 'losing' this game because he's going to get killed (by the lynch or me) and that's counter to his team's interests.
TolyK
Is Jack town?
See: end of this post. Short answer is ... likely yes?
Yeah unfortunately Jack is pretty solid and I haven't really been able to read into him more than you and possibly less dependent on what you got from the tonality of his QT posts.
FoU:
TolyK. I'm not exactly sure what's going on with him. Possible third party.
I said above in this post that I'm actually kind of annoyed at you not pushing this. And here you are, saying everyone is null or town-ish except me, who is third party-y. Why are you not engaging me or at least asking questions, if I'm the only one acting strange?
Hopefully this post gives enough material, eh? 
Pushing this, rather than posting the readslist, would have been the obvious thing to do as town.
Author
Topic: BYOR 0 - Game Over: Everyone Dies, SK wins (Read 195621 times)