An update on my situation, in case anyone cares. In the week since I last posted, I've managed to set up everything necessary to extract raw materials from Mercury, ship them to Earth, and convert them to cellphones at the rate of 220 per tick. Since demand for cellphones on Earth has steadily been between 300%-400% across the board, this results in an easy $600k revenue per tick and costs under 10% revenue. Since I only have to watch the three routes selling product on a single chart, this certainly takes less work than arbitrage for about the same income. The downside is I've used up nearly all my structure logistics capacity to accomplish this, so any additional income will need to come through arbitrage. Additionally, being invested in only one good, I'm vulnerable to a drop in cellphone demand across Earth; there aren't any other gadgets I can make with the components I make, and to expand into any other component production will use up what little logistics capacity I have left. In any case, it's nice passive income, but disappointing compared to what a good number of fresh arbitrage routes can bring in considering how much investment was required.
There is now a second problem I have to consider: how to defend my stuff off world. Not that I've had any trouble yet, but an undefended staging post is a tempting target, and NPCs don't care about who they hit. I've tried running the combat numbers through some spreadsheet simulations to determine what gives the best bang-for-the-buck, but the results aren't exactly conclusive. Scouts and corvettes are the cheapest to operate per amount of damage they can do across the board versus other ships, but would take loads of logistic capacity to damage anything big. Conversely, dreadnoughts are most efficient logistically, but are terribly inefficient to operate from a financial standpoint. Cruisers seem like the best midpoint on both scales. However, I should also consider that large ships have hangar capacity, and that bombers are effective against said large ships. When I consider a cruiser with a level 2 bomber versus a battleship with a level 5 bomber, I find I need three cruisers to match the performance of the battleship, requiring 2/3rds the upkeep and twice the logistics capacity. There's still a lot I haven't considered (mixed fleets, leveling ships, performance degradation due to damage, other small craft compliments, special units, random effects, etc.) but from what I have considered, it seems like cruiser+bomber is best for financial efficiency while battleship+bomber is best for logistical efficiency. I tried looking through battle histories to confirm my findings, but it seems there hasn't been a lot of ship v. ship combat, which is understandable given the relative difficulty in intercepting moving targets.
Anyhow, that's a lot of text. What I'd like to know is whether or not cruiser+bomber is a reasonable approach to defending my assets from typical raiding threats, assuming I park three or four over critical areas and keep an extra fleet around for retaliatory purposes. Also, what vulnerabilities haven't I accounted for? (Quickly looking over the numbers, five destroyers should win against the single cruiser in ideal combat for the same cost and upkeep and twice logistics, but that's not considering the bomber screen.)