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Glorious Arstotzka

17 (16%)

Glorious Moskurg

13 (12.3%)

Ingloriously Didn't Play

76 (71.7%)

Total Members Voted: 106

[10ebbor10]

We developed both in a single turn, they'll manage too.

I'm talking about things like the carrier, where we're still dealing with adaption problems after several designs.

[Azzuro]

Ground TC is not needed right now. And I'm not sure how we'd get more, design bigger trains? Better trucks?

Ok, to start, here's a list of our resources:
Forenia: 4 Ore (3 mainland + 1 from Myark) 3 oil (2 mainland + 1 from Desert) 1 Al 1 Mn
Forenia unused: 1 ore (jungle) 1 oil (mutriqa)
Cannala: 2 Wood? 3 Ore 3 Oil 2 Al 1Mg (Ti not listed?)

Here's our designs that are currently Expensive or above, and their Ore/Oil Cost:
AS-MV21-AL: 4 (2 Al), 2 (not listed as Expensive, but it should be)
T2 Breaker: 5, 2
AS-T33: 6, 3
Salamander: 5, 3
AS-1931-HAFB: 5 (1 Al), 4
UFAF-MTA-38 'Reckless Effect': 4 (1 Al), 4
UFAF-F39-W 'Haast': 5 Ore (1 Al 1Mn), 4

Very Expensive:
Death Ball: 6, 2 [Complex]
UFAF-F-40 "Thunderbird": 4 (1 Ti), 4 [Complex]
UFS-CV-40 'Zheleznogorod' B: 6, 5

And the good old AS-ARAC, which is a National Wonder at a stunning 10 ore.

If we retain the Jungle, and reduce the Cannalans to Basic Naval Advantage, the following drop in cost:
AS-MV21-AL, T2 Breaker, Salamander, HAFB, Reckless Effect, Haast to Cheap. Thunderbird and the Z Carrier to Expensive (dear god).

If we retain the Jungle, but the Cannalans interdict shipping, the following drop in cost (assuming we choose the ore, of course):
AS-MV21-Al, T2 Breaker, Salamander, HAFB, to Cheap.

If we lose the Jungle, and reduce the Cannalans to Basic Naval Advantage, the following drop in cost:
absolutely nothing!

The Sealift is a very powerful option assuming the first happens, in particular, dropping the cost of the Thunderbird and Z Carrier to Expensive will practically guarantee we reduce the Cannalans to Basic Advantage for subsequent turns as well, eliminating all TC interdiction concerns. If the second happens, it's also quite powerful, albeit it won't boost our naval strength that much.

However, if the third situation happens, we gain nothing as the Mutriqa oil will not by itself make anything cheaper. We can thus see that retaining the Jungle is important to get that ore.

Here's where I argue that we will not retain the Jungle. I am reasonably assuming here that the Cannalans will go for their own fighter jet to match the Thunderbird. Their jet will only have a 1/6 chance of being as good as the Thunderbird quality-wise, but it will probably be the same cost, at 4 ore 1 Ti 4 oil. Another assumption is that they will spend their revision to make their own engines non-[Complex], or else already have it as such due to turboshaft engine experience. If they do that, it becomes Expensive, and if they spend their DEVIL WEED credit on it, it becomes Cheap. An inferior Cannalan jet that is Cheap will beat out the Thunderbird that is Very Expensive and cause us to lose air superiority. I am confident to say that if we lose air superiority, we will almost certainly lose the jungle, since so much of our forces depend on it (Firecracker bombing, Haast CAS, paratrooper insertion, etc.). Possibly the only bright spot is that their new jet won't have an effect at sea until they design a new carrier or revise the Santos, for all the good it does us.

So that's a lot of assumptions to make about what Cannala will do. But I think it's the most rational course of action for them, unless they roll out radar-guided SAMs or something.

Hence, the Sealift is too high-risk high-reward for my taste. I admit that it's sorely needed to deal with our TC woes, but now is not the time. Voting for the aT-J04 builds on our lead in the field of jet aircraft, and builds on the fact that we've just designed a carrier to launch said jets.

FAKEedit: I'm pretty sure the number of wheels a truck has is only slightly correlated with its transport capacity.

EDIT: The Stinger is currently already Cheap, not Expensive. However, it's mistakenly listed as such in our equipment list.

[evictedSaint]

As Sensei mentioned, resources will pop soon as our allies give us surveying tech.  If we don't keep the jungle, we could reasonably pick up whatever pops in the mountains or plains.

And might I point out that holding the jungle and not having the TC is virtually the same as having the TC and not holding the jungle.  The only difference is we can get the oil from Mutriqa (for drop tanks) and are prepared for new resources.  And it's not unreasonable to expect we'll hold the jungle this turn.  We have better radar for sea, a new carrier, and better torpedo bombers.  We could easily turn it into a Minor or Even Naval advantage.  This makes landing harder for them - I don't think it's nearly as high-risk high-reward as you're making it out to be.

[Taricus]

Honestly the fact that we will be unable to defend the coast means they will likely get a foothold there if they don't try pushing onto the ore island behind them and go for the plains island this turn.

[Parsely]

With a new carrier, radar, a naval jet, and the Haast dropping torpedoes, we'll do OK at repelling an invasion. I'm hoping that they do try and invade the jungle again, cause it'll be a waste of their turn.

[10ebbor10]

And might I point out that holding the jungle and not having the TC is virtually the same as having the TC and not holding the jungle.

Except you're kind of ignoring that designing the transport is not free. If we do it, then we don't get other stuff.

[Azzuro]

You do have a good point about possible new resources, but I'm a little wary of assuming they will pop up next turn when we have conveniently designed a cargo ship for them. Also, we don't hold the plains, and are in fact only one section from being kicked out there. Cheaper jets will have at least a little effect there, whereas a cargo ship would not at all.

You are correct that they're essentially the same to us resource-wise either way, but if we allow Cannala to gain a beachhead next turn they could employ their armour advantage the turn after that. And getting drop-tanked Stingers is hardly significant next to getting cheaper jets, in terms of air advantage.

Regarding the difficulty of a Cannalan invasion of the Jungle, I think we'll have to agree to disagree. They do have to at least attack there, though, because disrupting our ore is much much more important than getting the Plains island.

[Taricus]

(5) aT-J04: Azzuro,Piratejoe, 10ebbor10, Powder Miner, Taricus
(2) UF-AC-40 'Khopesh': Light forger, Funk
(7) UFS-CV-40b 'Sea Lift' Pattern A: evictedSaint, Happerry, Kashyyk, Madman198237, NUKE9.13, Andrea, GUNINANRUNIN
(1) Compact Death Ray: Olith McHuman
(1) Archer pattern k NAV

(2) Design doctrine: Slat armour: NAV, Taricus
(2) Design doctrine: Tactical rails: NAV, Taricus

(1) Convert remaining SPATs into civilian farming tractors and bulldozers: NAV

Ensuring we rule the skies is more important than trying to convert a cargo ship.

[Parsely]

Even if they did make a jet and roll well on it, AFAIK they can't deploy it from the Santos. I think the air can wait while we up our TC.

[Taricus]

We aren't likely to get too much TC from the carrier while also retaining the jungle. I mean if we do that's great and we've got cheap jets next turn.

[Parsely]

Like I said, it's very likely they're going to have serious difficulty invading us with our new carrier, naval jets, and the Haast in a torpedo bomber role. I think them making a jet in response to ours is a good prediction since now they know they can make a working jet without risking [Impossible], but if they did make it it's not going to influence the invasion, just the plains. I think it's very likely we'll reduce their naval advantage, which means if we get TC this turn and benefit from it next turn then it is almost a certainty that the entire war will shift in our favor because of how many designs are reduced in cost, which, compared to the benefit of fixing jet engines, the choice is a no-brainer. I'm willing to temporarily sacrifice the plains for a permanent boon to our economy.

[Taricus]

You're overstating how much of an effect these very expensive carriers are going to have.

[Parsely]

The Santos is also Expensive, and the Z is better. The Z can launch and recover planes much faster than the Santos and it carries a dozen more fighters, plus we have the Wasp Nest in an escort role.

E: Oh, shoot, very expensive. I dunno, maybe the cheap Wasp Nest can make up for it a little.

[Taricus]

The Santos is merely expensive, not very expensive. Though that might change given the costs.

[NUKE9.13]

You're overstating how much of an effect these very expensive carriers are going to have.

I think you are underestimating them. IRL WWII (and later) navies only had a handful of large carriers, and yet they dominated naval warfare.