Posting my arguments here from the Discord, regarding a purely strategic perspective:
We have annoyed the Allies by invading Myark, likewise the Cannalans have annoyed the Axis by invading Redbeard Island.
>Cannala's choices are now between Allies/Comintern. Between these two, Allies are objectively more powerful and will gain them the resources of French Colony island. Furthermore the Expense Credit benefits them as a lot of their stuff is more expensive than ours.
>It's therefore a safe bet that Cannala will go for Allies. If we go for Allies too, they will win because of the Myark Incident counting against us. Unless we offer a significantly better design that they do, but the only area we have is carriers and radar, both of which the Allies already have.
>So our reasonable choices are Axis/Comintern. Now if Cannala will gain French Colony Island without a fight, and we need to spend three turns to gain the Communist Desert Island, then we are at a Disadvantage because they will be advancing more than we do for two turns, and will have a Resource Advantage for three.
>Thus, we should vote for Comintern.
Others will point out that Credits can be saved, so losing the Allies this turn and trying for Axis/Comintern next turn is no difference. I reply that if we are going to lose anyway, why waste this turn? If Cannala immediately uses the credit to gain an advantage, then they will advance for the turn and we will have been disadvantaged for no reason except sheer-bloodymindedness in trying for the Allies.