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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4453187 times)

McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52950 on: July 10, 2024, 03:02:18 pm »

If the executive isn't doing its job - that is, it's not implementing the regulations passed by Congress, isn't it up to Congress to do something about it? If Congress doesn't impeach (or convict if impeachment is even conducted), then if the population itself doesn't elect a Congress that will convict... what more do you want? At this point you're just sad the majority doesn't share your values.  The US government isn't set up to do what is "correct" by the way - it is set up to do what "the majority" wants - except in the interesting case of the electoral college and non-proportional representation aspects of Congress. Of course, having majority rule is often never "correct" in the first place...

If Congress also doesn't put its check-and-balance on the executive, then yeah there's not much that can be done.

I mean seriously, at the end of the day, every government function hinges on the willpower of people to do their duty. If everyone just sits on their hands, what do you propose?  Whinging about it doesn't much help.

This is also all kinds of "what-if" scenarios, and of course it's possible to come up with a "what if" where people really do just do nothing.  The hard part is guessing how plausible that is...

I mean seriously if the progressive element of the country really just does nothing but whine, and doesn't show any coordinated efforts to effect change, what do you expect?

I have long said that I prefer most progressive goals, but only the conservatives seem to be able to achieve theirs.  I have no theories on why this is, just observing that it "is."
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52951 on: July 10, 2024, 03:13:19 pm »

The idea that Biden can just flip a switch and end the Gaza war is nonsense. Israel is not an American proxy and Netanyahu does not take orders from Washington. Meanwhile there's plenty of people who disapprove of the Gaza War but would see further pressure on Israel as throwing the Jewish Homeland to the wolves - and an overwhelming percentage of them vote Democrat. We already had this on the ballot - the Uncommitted Movement back in the primaries. Which was widely touted as hugely popular and a Message To Biden before being absolutely crushed at the polls.

Joe Biden of course is not a magician, but Joe Biden is in charge of the strongest country in the world, the USA. The Biden Administration can use it's leverage against the right wing government of Israel.

In a May 24, 2021 piece, former Reagan admin worker, Lawrence J. Korb points out how Biden is giving Netanyahu too much cover.
However, by blocking the draft UN Security Council statement that called for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and refusing to back legislation sponsored by some 28 Democratic senators to block a $735 million package of precision-guided weapons to Israel, Biden risks undermining the role Washington can play in enhancing long-term prospects for peace in the region.

Korb writes of another mistake in 2021, a failure to intervene and subsequently condemn Netanyahu's government.
Biden, on the other hand, even though he had an hour’s notice, failed to intervene to stop Netanyahu from bombing and collapsing the 12-story building that housed the offices of Al Jazeera and the Associated Press in Gaza during the recent bombing campaign. He also failed to publicly condemn the attack, let alone challenge Israel’s contention that the building sheltered Hamas military intelligence assets, despite AP’s insistence that its staff had no evidence that such assets were or ever had been present.

I think the mistakes in 2021 can be seen as paralleling the mistakes of 2023 and 2024.
The US government ought to stop providing diplomatic cover for the government of Israel in the UN. The US government can also choose to stop sending weapons over to the military of Israel. In my opinion, Joe Biden could also have the US government condemn the actions of Israel as well.

I believe withdrawing diplomatic and military support will increase Joe Biden's favorability among Democrats and Independents and thus re-energize his voter base.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52952 on: July 10, 2024, 03:17:47 pm »

That all over looks several key pieces.

-The military perspective of Israel being the only truly friendly nation in a region of the world that hates us.
-The financial perspective of Israel being one of the primary buyers of US weapons.
-The political/religious perspective of American Jews who are ride or die for Israel, and who are single issue voters regardless of their political affiliation.

I'm not saying those should carry more weight than they do, but historically, they supercede any concerns about human rights as far as US policy is concerned. Biden has done exactly what previous American presidents have done: shake their finger at Israel while changing nothing.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52953 on: July 10, 2024, 03:33:28 pm »

I believe withdrawing diplomatic and military support will increase Joe Biden's favorability among Democrats and Independents and thus re-energize his voter base.

Only if you assume that it doesn't drive away more voters than it gets you. And the Democrats who would not vote for Biden because he Enabled The Second Holocaust by hanging Israel out to dry are a lot more numerous than you realize. The anti-Israel protests are loud adn extremely big on social media. That does NOT mean that they're actually all that numerous and influential in the voter base at large.
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Folly

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52954 on: July 10, 2024, 03:45:08 pm »

For all the claims of gutting various three-letter agencies, I'm not sure how much the executive can really gut them because most of those agencies are established to fulfill actual law (e.g., the Clean Air Act), so there would need to be either a repeal of those acts or some other mechanism by which Congress changes the mandates for those agencies.
I mean, or trump says not to do their duties (or fires the lot and replaces them with folks pointedly uninterested in actually doing the work)

Or just fires them and doesn't bother to replace them. Trump did have an entire TV show glorifying notoriously slow and inefficient hiring processes. And large chunks of his Cabinet were left empty for much of his presidential term.
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52955 on: July 10, 2024, 04:15:38 pm »

No one watching the chicken coup is Trump's favorite style of leadership.
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52956 on: July 10, 2024, 04:33:05 pm »

At their most radical AOC is  very slightly center left and believes that implementing social protections for minorities will remedy society's ills, and Sanders is a classic Liberal Democrat who would be perfectly happy if we returned to the Imperialist superpower we were in the 50's pre-segregation.
In my opinion, Bernie Sanders is a socialist, but he has to keep a mask on in order not to lose political office. I think Bernie Sanders is strategic in his messaging by advocating for progressive policies while not describing his policies or goals as socialist in nature.

As for the pre-segregation time period, I think Bernie Sanders would be opposed to such a time period's legal and systemic racism.
There is an image of Sanders protest against the unfair treatment of Black Americans in education. https://s3.amazonaws.com/cdn.sandersinstitute.org/app/uploads/2022/06/14193616/1963_timeline_1600x900_2.jpg


Bernie Sanders Arrest At Chicago Civil Rights Protest
https://sandersinstitute.org/event/bernie-sanders-arrest-at-chicago-civil-rights-protest
On August 12, 1963, Bernie was charged with resisting arrest for his role in Chicago protests against the use of “Willis Wagons.” He was found guilty and paid a fine of $25.


edit july 10, 2024
Polling Data
The idea that Biden can just flip a switch and end the Gaza war is nonsense. Israel is not an American proxy and Netanyahu does not take orders from Washington. Meanwhile there's plenty of people who disapprove of the Gaza War but would see further pressure on Israel as throwing the Jewish Homeland to the wolves - and an overwhelming percentage of them vote Democrat. We already had this on the ballot - the Uncommitted Movement back in the primaries. Which was widely touted as hugely popular and a Message To Biden before being absolutely crushed at the polls.
While you are correct that a majority of Jewish Americans are Democrats:
Of note: Jews (10%) and Muslims (18%) are the least likely religious groups to identify as Republican, according to ISPU’s American Muslim Poll.
I still disagree with your argumentation here.

One thing that Biden can support is a ceasefire for the Israel–Hamas war.

I think this polling shows that Biden would have the support of Jewish American voters in his base.

Though just shy of a majority, Jewish Americans are more likely to favor (50%) than oppose (34%) a cessation in violence.
https://www.ispu.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Ceasefire-Poll-01-1-1024x859.png?x46312

In this image it looks like 57% of Jewish Democrats favor a ceasefire.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2024, 05:12:08 pm by StrawBarrel »
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EuchreJack

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52957 on: July 10, 2024, 05:28:19 pm »

I think it is helpful to remind everyone of the first rule of politics: Old People Vote.
They're the most reliable voters, and they now outnumber literally everyone else even if everyone voted.

Young people tend to be unreliable voters.  They say they have feelings about things, but can't be bothered to actually vote.
That being said, if the young people can be organized, they are capable of making a difference.  But left to their own devices, they generally don't vote.

As for Biden: He was a mediocre candidate when he won against Trump the first time, and he is a mediocre candidate now. 
But he's the incumbent and the election is less than four months away.
Democrats need to shut up and close ranks, like they are capable of doing on other issues.

In a May 24, 2021 piece, former Reagan admin worker, Lawrence J. Korb points out how Biden is...
Yeah, like a former Reagan admin worker is ever gonna say anything about a Democrat other than "This guy sucks"

Overall, I think Biden is handling the issue with Israel as best as literally anyone could.  Even Reagan struggled with Israel and the Middle East, and his party was the easier one.

The US providing arms to Israel is actually the only thing that is keeping Israel from treating the Palestinians much, much worse.  While Israel has "accidentally" killed "a few" aid workers and reporters, they know that they can't kill "too many" or they'll lose their main source of supplies and support.  Without US aid, they could just "kill everyone" and ignore the international community.  Just look at how most of the wars in Africa are conducted, or even how Hamas conducts their side of the war, and you can see at least minimal restraint being shown by Israel.

StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52958 on: July 10, 2024, 05:44:34 pm »

I believe withdrawing diplomatic and military support will increase Joe Biden's favorability among Democrats and Independents and thus re-energize his voter base.

Only if you assume that it doesn't drive away more voters than it gets you. And the Democrats who would not vote for Biden because he Enabled The Second Holocaust by hanging Israel out to dry are a lot more numerous than you realize. The anti-Israel protests are loud adn extremely big on social media. That does NOT mean that they're actually all that numerous and influential in the voter base at large.

As for your fears of a Holocaust occurring in Israel if the US withdraws support, I find those fears to be unfounded. In fact, I think that the US withdrawing support from Netanyahu’s right wing government could lead to peace and thus lower the amount of deaths.

According to a Jewish Voice for Peace post:
On Sunday, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that he would not accept any permanent ceasefire. He forecasted that the most intense period of Israeli military violence may be drawing to a close, but allowed only for negotiations to continue for prisoner swaps. 
If Netanyahu opposes a ceasefire, then Biden ought to oppose Netanyahu.

I think that Joe Biden allowing Benjamin Netanyahu to continue wage a war with no peace in sight endangers the state of Israel even more. Continual warfare will lead to more tensions and more death. A ceasefire and peace agreement would be a deescalation of both violence and tensions among political powers.


In an interview with CBS, Jewish American Harrison Mann says he believes that continual violence will have a negative effect on the security of the state of Israel.
"They're not responding in a way that is productive for the security of the state of Israel or Jews worldwide," Mann said. "I'm confident saying it's certainly some measure of ethnic cleansing. I do not think it is in the spirit of 'never again'."
"If you are somebody who is really motivated by the concern to protect Jewish life," Mann said, "you should be fighting for [Israel] to wind down the war, to conduct it in a way that does not turn basically the whole world against them. That is not good for the near- or long-term security of Israel."
I agree with Major Mann’s assessment here.

For further reading, this twitter posts contains the US Army Major’s November resignation letter.
Image of letter part 1: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNeA3qJWQAARm-E?format=png&name=large
Image of letter part 2: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GNeA4lIXgAA18xb?format=png&name=large
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52959 on: July 10, 2024, 05:57:31 pm »

Man, can we get an age check? I'm 40 and I've seen so many "peace in the Middle East" attempts in my time alive, I have no illusions left that some white guy from the West is going to broker real peace. Nor a ceasefire, because this is 2024 and we have a hot war that's been running for years that two presidents have been unable to do anything but support, because it's all we realistically can do other than "nothing."

I feel like the only two reasonable options for the US are to maintain the status quo, or withdraw support from Israel. US Diplomats aren't sitting around while this is going on, doing nothing either. I'm sure every day a ceasefire is repeatedly offered as a temporary solution.

Not being Jewish, I don't have much of a stake in the game beyond the sheer inhumanity of what's happened and is still going on. So obviously, I'm going to struggle to see why the US should have a stake in this either other than being a peace broker. I don't truly believe Israel is the key to the Middle East uniting against the US were it to cease to be a nation-state. So maintaining an ally there really just means the US has a place to stage ground forces if need be. And since I'm no fan of the MIC, us shuffling billions around in arms deals is something I would happily see go away, or at a minimum stop in Israel. Lastly, while it would be politically catastrophic for whatever administration withdrew support, I think that's a band-aid the US just needs to rip off. I'd be happy for us to continue supporting Israel, but the thought of our tax dollars supporting straight-up war crimes for EITHER side just makes me want the fuck out of it. Despite the fact I support Ukraine, I have no doubt we've probably enabled some of that in their war for survival as well. That's just war to some extent, but what's going on in Israel is pretty barbaric and has been since I was old enough to understand what was going on.

So TLDR: from a guy I didn't expect much from, I certainly didn't expect Biden to pull off a Nobel Peace Prize winning move in an election year.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2024, 06:39:46 pm by nenjin »
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52960 on: July 10, 2024, 06:27:29 pm »



One thing that Biden can support is a ceasefire for the Israel–Hamas war.


You mean like the ceasefire he's already been pushing since at least May and that leaders over there have repeatedly and soundly rejected?
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52961 on: July 10, 2024, 09:39:50 pm »

An important part of civil discourse is acknowledging that you won't always be able to persuade everyone to your own way of thinking. People will do their best to present their views in a way that is clear and convincing, but ultimately we have to be prepared to let other people have their own way of looking at the world.

And maybe sometimes try to see things from their point of view. Even if you disagree, understanding where they are coming from might help you get through to them.
Yeah I have seen people online talk about once being conservative, but then becoming progressive after seeing an argument presented by a left wing person.
I think misinformation from the right wing can give some people a right wing mindset and worldview. Some people are misinformed by media figures like Ben Sharpiro and Jordan Peterson. Some people grow up in conservative households and become misinformed due to that home environment.

So I think the important thing is to present your arguments and information. Whether or not the other person is convinced is not up to you. You can only control yourself.

I also think you make a good point on "understanding where they are coming from might help you get through to them.". If a person presents a good faith quality argument, it shows that they are serious about the conversation. Once they create a decent quality argument, you can see probably see their thought process as well as their logic and thus have the potential to formulate a counterargument in turn.

Quote
And maybe sometimes try to see things from their point of view.
I remember learning in high school speech class that you study your audience. Once you understand your audience, you can create a better argument for them.
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hector13

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52962 on: July 10, 2024, 10:26:06 pm »

I’m pretty sure research has shown information against a position usually just shores up the opposite position.

I think understanding people and treating them like human beings is more likely to engender respectful discourse.

Obviously this requires the participants of the argument to be arguing in good faith.
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52963 on: July 11, 2024, 12:10:19 am »

I think it is helpful to remind everyone of the first rule of politics: Old People Vote.
They're the most reliable voters, and they now outnumber literally everyone else even if everyone voted.

Young people tend to be unreliable voters.  They say they have feelings about things, but can't be bothered to actually vote.
That being said, if the young people can be organized, they are capable of making a difference.  But left to their own devices, they generally don't vote.

As for Biden: He was a mediocre candidate when he won against Trump the first time, and he is a mediocre candidate now. 
But he's the incumbent and the election is less than four months away.
Democrats need to shut up and close ranks, like they are capable of doing on other issues.

In a May 24, 2021 piece, former Reagan admin worker, Lawrence J. Korb points out how Biden is...
Yeah, like a former Reagan admin worker is ever gonna say anything about a Democrat other than "This guy sucks"

Overall, I think Biden is handling the issue with Israel as best as literally anyone could.  Even Reagan struggled with Israel and the Middle East, and his party was the easier one.

The US providing arms to Israel is actually the only thing that is keeping Israel from treating the Palestinians much, much worse.  While Israel has "accidentally" killed "a few" aid workers and reporters, they know that they can't kill "too many" or they'll lose their main source of supplies and support.  Without US aid, they could just "kill everyone" and ignore the international community.  Just look at how most of the wars in Africa are conducted, or even how Hamas conducts their side of the war, and you can see at least minimal restraint being shown by Israel.
"Just look at how most of the wars in Africa are conducted, or even how Hamas conducts their side of the war, and you can see at least minimal restraint being shown by Israel."
I think a major problem is that the Israeli military is not showing enough restraint. Minimal restraint is clearly not enough when the killing aid workers and the media continues.

A NBC twitter video on abuse in Sde Teiman Camp.
https://x.com/allinwithchris/status/1799442067409523185
  • I think Chris Hayes does a good job showing parallels of US torture in Iraq and Israel torture.
  • 3:29 of the video was shocking to me as a person was tortured to death.
  • The Times reports that 35 people have been reported killed at Sde Teiman.
  • I like how Hayes ends with a call to action “to not look away”.
  • This was a very good news segment from NBC news.
The torture of civilians in prison shows to me that "minimal restraint" is pitiful. I think that it normal for most people to not torture others. Most normal people do not need to restrain themselves from the urge to torture. I think a better government would arrest their war criminals and put them on trial. This shows me why right wing governments are dangerous like Netanyahu's.



http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=182224.msg8532279#msg8532279
In this past post, I write about how the Israeli military has been using snipers to harm and kill civilians.

There have been multiple reports of Israeli military snipers shooting civilians in Gaza.
In December it was reported by the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem that:
Quote from: CNN
An Israeli military sniper shot and killed two women inside the Holy Family Parish in Gaza on Saturday, according to the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/16/middleeast/idf-sniper-gaza-church-deaths-intl-hnk

On the 13th of this month, 3 Palestinians were killed by sniper fire at Nasser Hospital.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-palestinians-killed-by-israeli-sniper-fire-gazas-nasser-medical-complex-2024-02-13/

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/three-palestinians-killed-by-israeli-sniper-fire-gazas-nasser-medical-complex-2024-02-13/
According to this wikipedia article, on December 15, 2023 in Gaza three Israeli civilians: Yotam Haim, Alon Shamriz, and Samer Talalka were killed by the IDF.
Quote
An Israeli sniper then opened fire on them, killing Shamriz and Talalka and wounding Haim.
Quote
a soldier acting against the battalion commander's order shot and killed him.

https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240111-ora-01-00-bi.pdf
On page 30 of Transcript of South Africa's submissions regarding provisional measures
Quote
This intent is evident from Israel’s conduct in:
(1) specially targeting Palestinians living in Gaza;
(2) using weaponry that causes large-scale homicidal destruction, as well as targeted sniping of
civilians;

A Palestinian father and daughter were killed by Israeli snipers in Gaza
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6__JTz_1iso&rco=1
This Middle East Eye video reports that:
Quote
Israeli snipers were conducting a field execution in Al-Shatie Refugee Camp in Gaza, in which they killed multiple Palestinian civilians, including a Palestinian father and daughter who were trying to find shelter.


So from my viewpoint, this "minimal restraint" stratagem is not working. The IDF continues to kill innocent people. Crimes against humanities are occurring with this "minimal restraint" approach.

Sidenote: This post was not so much disagreeing but rather my skepticism of whether or not the government of Israel is showing restraint or not. It is possible that Israel could increase the rate of killing, but I would not view an increase in killing as a loss of "minimal restraint", but rather an unfortunately natural evolution of the stages of genocide.
One example I am thinking of is how the government of Nazi Germany placed people in ghettos at first. Some people starved to death in the Warsaw ghetto. Later on, the ghettos were liquidated by the Nazis and people were sent to concentration camps. So to me, I think the Nazi government was not losing restraint, but rather morphing and finding a new doctrine for killing people.
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StrawBarrel

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #52964 on: July 11, 2024, 02:35:28 am »

My continued contention with this post:
The US providing arms to Israel is actually the only thing that is keeping Israel from treating the Palestinians much, much worse.  While Israel has "accidentally" killed "a few" aid workers and reporters, they know that they can't kill "too many" or they'll lose their main source of supplies and support.  Without US aid, they could just "kill everyone" and ignore the international community.  Just look at how most of the wars in Africa are conducted, or even how Hamas conducts their side of the war, and you can see at least minimal restraint being shown by Israel.
I think it is a problem that we let the government of Israel threaten to kill more people if they do not receive support from the United States.
One right wing member of the Knesset, Tally Gotliv threaten to kill more civilians if the US does not provide weapons.
In May 2024, after the United States delayed the delivery of precision missiles to Israel, Gotliv stated that Israel should instead use missiles which were imprecise and thus more destructive. "We have imprecise missiles! So maybe instead of using a precise missile to take out a specific room or a specific building, I’ll use my imprecise missiles to flatten 10 buildings. That’s what I’ll do. If you don’t give me precise missiles, I’ll use imprecise missiles," Gotliv said.
Video of the Gotliv: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FEOo74uJtU Israeli MK threatens US, says will use ‘imprecise missiles’

   As for the tactic of supplying people with weapons or else they will kill more people, I view this as appeasement. One example of appeasement was letting Adolf Hitler’s government annex Austria in 1938.
   Although I do not know if scholars and analysts classify this as appeasement, I think that when Vladimir Putin's government annexed Crimea from the state of Ukraine in 2014 there was not enough push back against Putin. When there is not enough opposition against right wing governments, I feel like we are appeasing them.

   I think that the US government should not give into these threats.
   One reason is that the US is currently the most powerful state and can likely tank a threat from the government of Israel.
   Another reason is that I can not think of a historical example where appeasing a right wing government has led to productive outcomes.
   I also have the personal belief that we should stand up to right wing bullies like Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. If we let the right wing take more and more, they are not likely to stop. In my opinion, right wing governments are bad faith and we have to take them seriously. I think the continual arming of the Israeli military will lead to bad outcomes such as more death to people and destruction to infrastructure.
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