This 30-minute Veritasium video on the prisoner's dilemma - or its content anyway - should almost be codified in law. I wish our politicians would follow it.
1. Be nice.
2. Be forgiving.
3. Don't be a pushover.
4. Be clear.
Basically it highlights some of the good and bad that our current policy-makers exhibit. One is I think in international politics we're a bit too much of a pushover, we need a little more tit-for-tat. But at the same time, we are also not forgiving enough - once someone strikes back, we keep attacking instead of forgiving after a time. We're also too slow to ensure clarity: we have both too much assumptions of the other side being hostile or too much lenience in assuming it's not as bad as we think.
One of the best gameshows ever was a gameshow called golden balls. Game started with a few elimination rounds where players vote to eliminate a player. Players have a bunch of balls, with a few "killer balls" and a few big cash balls. Players want to avoid killer balls entering their prize pool, but ultimately also want to survive, whilst establishing credibility as honest.
At the very end, only two players remain. And no matter how well or badly they did, in the end it comes down to one choice. Players can pick to steal, or split. If they both split, they share the prize pool equally. If they both steal, they both walk home with nothing. If one of them splits and the other steals, the thief gets the whole prize pot.
This one math teacher and this mother of 3 made it to the final round. The mo of 3 said he could trust her, she was honest, she was an integrous mother, she intended to split. The math teacher said "I am going to pick steal."
The mother got very flustered and began offering quick counters and questions like "WHY?!" getting red in the face, but the math teacher remained firm. "No matter what, I do not trust you. I am going to pick steal, and then split the pot with you equally. If you pick steal, we both walk away with nothing."
The host asks them both to finalise their selection. The glum faced mother sullenly reveals she picked split. The math teacher reveals he also picked split. They both walked away with half the prize pool. Afterwards they interviewed them both and asked what they would have picked had he not pulled off his gambit. She said yeah, she would've picked steal. Had 3 kids to feed X
D
Of these 4 points though, the last one is most important. USA has great power, but internationally, no one has any idea what the hell the USA considers a red line or not, because it acts in very unclear ways as to what it will support in one state, or bomb another state for. Even to its own government servants and military officers. I remember this one fucking hilarious interview where a US Army General was informing an Air Force Marshal they were invading Iraq. "Why?" The air marshal asked. "I don't know," the army general replied, exasperated. Probably one of the classic and recurring tragedies is whenever the USA encourages a popular uprising, with US presidents giving strong public rhetoric indicating they will support people taking power into their own hands. Then when the uprisings happen, the USA just watches impassively whilst the popular uprisings are crushed by the government. From the Shiites and Saddam to the Kurds getting the rug pulled out from under them in Syria and Iraq today, it dislocates US foreign policy if the USA isn't dependable or predictable to its allies or competitors.