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[jipehog]

Speaking of defaults, what is the game plan? It seem that republicans are leverage the moment to make gains for their policy goals, or cost the country democratic presidency to play on in the elections.

[EuchreJack]

Speaking of defaults, what is the game plan? It seem that republicans are leverage the moment to make gains for their policy goals, or cost the country democratic presidency to play on in the elections.

I think the Republicans are gonna eat shit and die.

The Radical Republicans that don't want the debt ceiling increase are very new politicians, generally.
Whereas the Progressive Democrats that are pushing for no compromise on their side are generally more seasoned politicians.

So if the Default happens, it's the Republicans that will lose seats.
...and you can be sure, the Progressive Democrats know that.

[McTraveller]

You're giving the general US population a lot of credit if you think they'll hold the politicians accountable for this.

[EuchreJack]

You're giving the general US population a lot of credit if you think they'll hold the politicians accountable for this.

It'll depend mostly on how long the Default lasts. If it goes to September, then it becomes an Election Issue. If the problem resolves itself before that, then the short attention span of US people will probably keep it from being relevant.

[hector13]

Some people still think the 2020 election was stolen.

Enough that Trump is again leading the polls for the Republican nomination.

[jipehog]

Speaking of defaults, what is the game plan? It seem that republicans are leverage the moment to make gains for their policy goals, or cost the country democratic presidency to play on in the elections.

I think the Republicans are gonna eat shit and die.

The Radical Republicans that don't want the debt ceiling increase are very new politicians, generally.
Whereas the Progressive Democrats that are pushing for no compromise on their side are generally more seasoned politicians.

So if the Default happens, it's the Republicans that will lose seats.
...and you can be sure, the Progressive Democrats know that.

Going past the deadline won't lead immediately to default but to debt prioritization and economic harm. Some analysist think that Republicans are less concerned about such eventually than Democrats and thus there is more pressure on Democrats to compromise.

[EuchreJack]

Speaking of defaults, what is the game plan? It seem that republicans are leverage the moment to make gains for their policy goals, or cost the country democratic presidency to play on in the elections.

I think the Republicans are gonna eat shit and die.

The Radical Republicans that don't want the debt ceiling increase are very new politicians, generally.
Whereas the Progressive Democrats that are pushing for no compromise on their side are generally more seasoned politicians.

So if the Default happens, it's the Republicans that will lose seats.
...and you can be sure, the Progressive Democrats know that.

Going past the deadline won't lead immediately to default but to debt prioritization and economic harm. Some analysist think that Republicans are less concerned about such eventually than Democrats and thus there is more pressure on Democrats to compromise.

Well...they have the White House and Senate.
More responsibility means more responsibility.
I wish more people understood that.

[Vector]

I don't care that much who wins as long as Meatball Ron loses

[Folly]

You're giving the general US population a lot of credit if you think they'll hold the politicians accountable for this.

You're giving US politicians too little credit if you really think they allow the population to have any influence over their power.

[WealthyRadish]

Of course, it's the oligarchs controlling the politicians who are getting too little credit if we give too much credit to the politicians ignoring the general population by merely saying the general population is being given too much credit.

[Lord Shonus]

You're giving the general US population a lot of credit if you think they'll hold the politicians accountable for this.

The Republicans have lost seats pretty solidly every single time they've tried to weaponize the budget. After every government shutdown, and the last time that we came close enough to default for people to panic. The electoral risks they're running are extremely real.


Euchre Jack is quite right. The Republicans, or at least the extremist wing in the house, are going to wind up royally fucked here. The reason, the ONLY reason, that the MTG wing even matters is that the GOP majority in the House is razor thin. If Kevin and Joe manage to knock out a deal (and note that one of the big Republican demands, permitting reform, would also do a lot to help some major green energy projects to move forward, that means giving them that as a "win" is not only cheap but actually beneficial) that can most of the Dems will sign off on, there's going to be pretty much nothing to stop it sailing through quickly.

Also note that any "commitments" made for years after 2023 are dust in the wind. Putting binding agreements on future budgets is something you just can't do.

[EuchreJack]

I don't care that much who wins as long as Meatball Ron loses

Don't worry. He pissed on Disney. He's fucked.
What you should be hoping is that he managed to piss off Disney enough that he'll lose his Governorship.  Which, actually seems likely after he fumbles his Presidential Primary attempt.

[Frumple]

He can't run for governor next term (has hit the term limit), so it's a forgone conclusion on that front. Part of the reason he's fucking around as hard as he is, is because he's trying to lay some kind of screwed up foundation for whatever he does next. Why he thinks a failed presidential run will do much, I'unno, but deshitis has not exactly shown the greatest amount of foresight in the world so *shrugs*

[Dostoevsky]

Also note that any "commitments" made for years after 2023 are dust in the wind. Putting binding agreements on future budgets is something you just can't do.

This is... not true? At least, not if I'm understanding you right. Back in 2011 the budget control act amendments they passed included statutory caps on the next decade of discretionary and mandatory spending, enforced by 'sequestration'. Basically, if the federal government (generally congress through appropriations) went over then it ('it' being the executive branch here) was required to implement a percentage-based, across-the-board cut to all spending in order to get back down to the cap.

In practice most of the years Republicans and Democrats renegotiated slightly higher margins a handful of years at a time, largely driven by the fact that there were separate caps to Defense and Nondefense spending, and Republicans wanted more defense spending enough to acquiesce to greater nondefense spending. Budget growth in this period was overall tighter than usual, and sequestration actually did hit in FY2013.

Going past the deadline won't lead immediately to default but to debt prioritization and economic harm. Some analysist think that Republicans are less concerned about such eventually than Democrats and thus there is more pressure on Democrats to compromise.

The issue (well, one issue) is that it's as much about the appearance of governance as it is about actually paying the bills. Even if the government keeps paying debtors after crossing the line, if it's doing this by making massive cuts/furloughs to its general operations that doesn't exactly give debt holders a vote of confidence about current or future debt. Back in 2011 one of the credit raters downgraded US debt even after congress passed the bill, because of how much of an excrement show it was. (This is setting aside how problematic the credit rating groups are, of course.)


Anyways, as to predictions about how this will pan out the general intel is that Dems have significantly caved to Republican demands enough for McCarthy to show the bulk of his caucus that he got them 'a win' and can claim that he cut funding to government services. Timing is tight, but not too tight to get it wrapped up next week. Still a little unclear whether that'll preserve his speakership, which is the only thing he really cares about, but thanks in part to the White House botching most of this for the last... 10 months? he's on the cusp of scoring a victory here.

[Doomblade187]

Gotta love me some medicaid labor battalions.