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[TamerVirus]

The plane landed.
We do not live in the timeline where China shoots down Nancy Pelosi, instigating World War 3

[MonkeyHead]

Before February, I would have thought all the Chinese activity near Taiwan was sabre rattling. Now, I am a lot more concerned. With the west generally focussed on Ukraine, they might just make a move.

[dragdeler]

For what tho? Could the US leadership be made up of more passive mummies?

[Random_Dragon]

Before February, I would have thought all the Chinese activity near Taiwan was sabre rattling. Now, I am a lot more concerned. With the west generally focussed on Ukraine, they might just make a move.

My thinking is the best time for them to make a move on Taiwan was when the invasion of Ukraine had just started, before the sanctions were actually carried out and when the world was still reeling from it. Every day after the odds of them being able to get something out of starting something without consequences dwindled back down to probably about the same odds as before the war. Maybe slightly worse odds now, since there's indication that there's at least some potential for non-WWIII responses to put pressure on a country.

The problem however is it's not yet clear if the sanctions are going to be enough to actually undermine Putin's ambitions and affect the logistics of the war, not just its popularity on the home front. If this war ends in anything less than total victory for Ukraine, then a good time for the PRC to start something will come again right after the war ends. That'll be when the world starts to cotton onto the "we've now proven that nuclear countries in general can do literally anything to non-nuclear countries and nothing sort of global war will curtail that behavior" precedent being further solidified, but before the world has recovered from war-weariness.

[martinuzz]

China has reacted furiously on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
The Chinese Defense department has announced 'targeted military operations'.

[nenjin]

Taking a letter from the Russian playbook I see. Next they'll be telling us about de-nazifying Taiwan. Coincidence that the Chinese economy mortgages are starting to crash right about now? I don't think so.

"“These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous. Those who play with fire will perish by it,” the statement said in part. “China will definitely take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity in response to the U.S. Speaker’s visit. All the consequences arising therefrom must be borne by the U.S. side and the ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces.”"

https://www.newsnationnow.com/world/china-to-begin-targeted-military-operations/

[McTraveller]

I guess I don't understand international politics at all.  It seems so petty.

I mean I guess I can see maybe how seeing someone come from out of town to have a meeting with your neighbor that you covet might seem threatening, but I don't understand why the response would be "we're going to threaten to destroy that neighbor's landscaping and house, and maybe kill their pets."

Like, why not do some cooperation instead of conflict?  I just don't get it.

[Il Palazzo]

Because you think you can get away with conflict, and all the associated theatre is for local consumption?

[hector13]

I guess I don't understand international politics at all.  It seems so petty.

I mean I guess I can see maybe how seeing someone come from out of town to have a meeting with your neighbor that you covet might seem threatening, but I don't understand why the response would be "we're going to threaten to destroy that neighbor's landscaping and house, and maybe kill their pets."

Like, why not do some cooperation instead of conflict?  I just don't get it.

Well, China doesn’t see Taiwan as a neighbour it covets, China sees Taiwan as China, so, as per your metaphor, they would expect the out of towner to ask permission to enter their property, who ignores them and visits anyway, and they feel as though they can get justifiably upset about it.

[anewaname]

China is responding the same way an abusive and controlling husband responds when someone talks to their wife.

[hector13]

China does that. Hong Kong had a little bit of democracy, and it looked like that little bit of democracy was electing pro-China majorities a lot, but China still cracked down hard on that shit and now they don’t have democracy any more.

[Lord Shonus]

For what tho? Could the US leadership be made up of more passive mummies?

Nancy Pelosi is #3 in the line of succession. Shooting her down would not be an act of war, it would be an outright declaration of war. Which is why China's fuming but isn't doing anything.

[Laterigrade]

China will torpedo any economic advantage it has over America if it invades Taiwan.

Not if America spends a similar amount of resources in response.

[Lord Shonus]

China is extremely reliant on international trade to prop their economy up, more than most nations. Invading Taiwan would ruin enormous numbers of the trade agreements, the same way Russia invading Ukraine did. Particularly since Taiwan produces a massive percentage of the semiconductors that the world relies on to function, and an invasion would destroy that.

Meanwhile, the US waging war in defense of the island would have far less impact - most of the US's non-China trade partners are allied with the US specifically to oppose China. It isn't just about the resources dumped into the fight.

[Random_Dragon]

the same way Russia invading Ukraine did.

See, that's why there's still some worry that China might do it anyway despite what a bad idea it'd be. Everyone was remarking that "no way would Russia be dumb enough to invade Ukraine" and then it happened.

There's hope that having seen what a dumb idea it was might discourage the PRC from trying the same thing, but there's still the twin considerations of "if Russia looks like it's actually getting away with laughing at another nations' sovereignty in any meaningful way it'll encourage more of this shit" combined with "the sheer magnitude of human stupidity is both universal and boundless"