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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4466598 times)

da_nang

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46395 on: September 30, 2021, 03:48:11 pm »

So the reverse repo (asset borrowing) is at $1.6 trillion (spiking?) and has been over $1 trillion for more than a month now.

Possible reason no 1: Banks overflowing with pandemic money need to find assets to meet regulatory requirements.

Possible reason no 2: Hedge funds shorting more GME shares than exist, shorting it again after the initial spike in January, creating synthetic shares through naked shorting and trading amongst themselves in dark pools (closed private markets) to keep the price down--all the while hemorraging dollars on interest, needing to meet asset requirements on exchanges to avoid margin calls, and battling with diamond-handed direct-registering* GME retail--was a terrible idea.

*Broker must produce an ownership certificate of a real share to the shareholder.

Oh, and inflation has been above 5% for months, and the debt ceiling is knocking on the door.

Buckle up, we're in for a bumpy ride.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2021, 03:49:44 pm by da_nang »
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Gentlefish

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46396 on: September 30, 2021, 04:26:10 pm »

Hey, if it takes the housing market with it I won't be complaining. I'd like to be able to buy a house without having to put up a house's uninflated value up as down.

LordBaal

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46397 on: September 30, 2021, 04:33:52 pm »

I read something about rising the budget or debt limit some more trillions to plant trees?

Would not be better to put that money on carbon secuestrers?
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46398 on: September 30, 2021, 04:37:35 pm »

Hey, if it takes the housing market with it I won't be complaining. I'd like to be able to buy a house without having to put up a house's uninflated value up as down.

^

I'm in the market to buy a house but I want to strike when the housing bubble collapses.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46399 on: September 30, 2021, 04:45:03 pm »

I read something about rising the budget or debt limit some more trillions to plant trees?

Would not be better to put that money on carbon secuestrers?
Trees are one of the most cost effect carbon sequestration methods currently available, iirc. Just planting shedloads of the things is a fairly effective proposal, from what I understand... maybe not optimal, but fairly achievable logistics wise and an easy message to push.

Near as I can recall it wouldn't take trillions of dollars to plant enough of them to basically stall rising temperatures, though (it's only like 30c to the tree or something like that; you'd have to plant multiple trillions of trees to cost trillions of dollars, and we probably only need around a trillion or so of the things to begin with, with the proposals I've noticed), so wherever you heard that specifically was probably pretty sketchy, or it was put backwards or something.

... also not a major component of the debt limit increase regardless, so far as I'm aware, so yeah.
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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46400 on: September 30, 2021, 04:58:18 pm »

I read something about rising the budget or debt limit some more trillions to plant trees?

Would not be better to put that money on carbon secuestrers?

There's a lot to unpack for the current situation, but here's an attempt:

- There are currently multiple large spending bills that have some level of prospect of congressional activity. Of these, the largest is possibly up to $3.5 trillion in total spending (roughly $1.8 trillion in net debt), and (as of current, definitely-not-final text) does include various climate positions. There may be tree-planting in there somewhere, I dunno, but there's a lot of other stuff besides including a kinda-sorta carbon standard for the electricity sector, a fee on methane emissions, money for implementing environmental reviews, etc. etc. This is the 'Build Back Better' (BBB) bill.

- There is also an impending debt ceiling/cliff. This is technically unrelated to the above, as it's about existing spending & revenue trajectories and legislation that isn't law (let alone being implemented) has no bearing on that. There are a bunch of factors going into the current debt situation, but in truth the total amount doesn't actually matter due to how we raise the ceiling - just the fact that there's still a deficit. (This is because the normal way of increasing the debt ceiling these days is to tie it to a date instead of a number - whatever the debt is at X date, that's the cap because congress says so.)

- There's also a bipartisan infrastructure package with some minor environmental provisions (and arguably a greater number of bad provisions, making it possibly a net-negative bill). That one is either $1 trillion of $560 billion, depending on how you do the maths. This is the BIF.

- There's also the normal appropriations bills, with (if I remember right) a little over $1 trillion in total spending overall for discretionary spending over the next fiscal year. That includes various existing environmental programs, albeit a pretty tiny percentage. There's probably tree-planting in there somewhere. This needed to pass by today in order to prevent a government shutdown, but at the 11th hour they've figured this out.

- Both the BBB and the BIF were theoretically going to get votes this week as well, but the BBB is plagued by various Democratic infighting that spills over into the BIF because BIF was sold to progressives on the promise that BBB was also becoming law. If BIF passes first the Sinema/Manchin contingent will quite likely kill BBB, and so progressives are threatening to take down BIF.

- BIF also includes a transportation reauthorization, but that's honestly not a huge factor at play here and has little to do with trees (unless you count turning nature into asphalt).
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LordBaal

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46401 on: September 30, 2021, 05:22:13 pm »

Oh I said that because the latest kurzergast video hints it migth be one of the active ways to fix the climate issue and they dont end up burning on horrible forest fires started by climate or jerks.
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I'm curious as to how a tank would evolve. Would it climb out of the primordial ooze wiggling it's track-nubs, feeding on smaller jeeps before crawling onto the shore having evolved proper treds?
My ship exploded midflight, but all the shrapnel totally landed on Alpha Centauri before anyone else did.  Bow before me world leaders!

Rolan7

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46402 on: September 30, 2021, 05:49:57 pm »

According to a podcast yesterday, the carbon capture technology is nowhere near practical yet for what we need. Obviously they're expected to improve, but right now it takes a pretty large (about truck-sized) machine to capture the carbon of... like 6 thousand cars? It may have been hundred. So yeah, trees are significantly more efficient (for now).

The podcast did mention a fiasco where thousands of trees were planted but failed to thrive. So it's not quite as simple as it sounds, heh. Hopefully carbon capture technology advances by a degree or two of magnitude, and other methods like trees help in the meantime.
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MrRoboto75

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46403 on: September 30, 2021, 06:11:14 pm »

Buckle up, we're in for a bumpy ride.

Oh, its only the fourth(?) economic disaster in my short lifetime.  Not like I have any opportunities left to lose. Nor did the last economic disasters ever actually end.

hashtag: #milleniallife
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46404 on: September 30, 2021, 06:28:45 pm »

The usual "stick it in a mine" CCS is a terrible idea. You get a breach there and a high pressure wave of concentrated CO2 will smother the surface around the breach. The radius depends on the size of the breach and the amount stored. There are lakes where a similar phenomena happens naturally on rare occasions, and it's absurdly deadly.

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will drop on its own via sunlight destruction if we just stop emitting. Global forestry and sunlight are constantly destroying massive amounts of CO2 and life on this planet wouldn't be the way it is otherwise.

Biomass sequestration is fine, but underground sequestration is a blue sky idea in the same vein as hydrogen cell cars and atmosphere sulfate seeding.
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46405 on: September 30, 2021, 07:35:04 pm »

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will drop on its own via sunlight destruction if we just stop emitting.
I don't think you mean geophysical (atmophysical?) process there, though you make it sound like it in this snippet. (Letting biology mop it up is maybe what you meant.)

CO2 is more stable than O2 (which peskily oxides things, including carbon-based stuff that then becomes more CO2), so without plantlife (or equivalent from another domain of life) you won't find it destroying itself due to sunlight (unlike other compounds).

Add volcanic processes naturally spitting even more of the stuff out (though it's secondary to water vapour, for a number of reasons) and there's always a chance of running away into a situation approaching that of Venus, with an apparently stable (with day/night fluctuations via an amount of nitric oxides, notable but still not within the same order) 95+% CO2 atmosphere.
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SOLDIER First

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46406 on: September 30, 2021, 08:13:47 pm »

Choo-choo! Circle-jerk train now leaving station! All abooooard!

i wish you my heartiest and most sincere "cope"
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scriver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46407 on: September 30, 2021, 09:46:35 pm »

The usual "stick it in a mine" CCS is a terrible idea. You get a breach there and a high pressure wave of concentrated CO2 will smother the surface around the breach. The radius depends on the size of the breach and the amount stored. There are lakes where a similar phenomena happens naturally on rare occasions, and it's absurdly deadly.

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere will drop on its own via sunlight destruction if we just stop emitting. Global forestry and sunlight are constantly destroying massive amounts of CO2 and life on this planet wouldn't be the way it is otherwise.

Biomass sequestration is fine, but underground sequestration is a blue sky idea in the same vein as hydrogen cell cars and atmosphere sulfate seeding.

What we need to do is biomodificate a fast growing sea weed co2 eater that we the  can stuff in mines like the dinosaurs did
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Rolan7

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46408 on: September 30, 2021, 10:01:56 pm »

I don't know how serious it is, but apparently one of the proposals is to grow trees (capturing the carbon) and then cut them down and bury the lumber.  Which sounds laughably expensive to me.

But also you have to make sure they don't rot!  Which led to the podcasters joking about using the same hole as a nuclear waste dump.  Wild stuff.
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Micro102

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #46409 on: September 30, 2021, 11:45:50 pm »

Time for a giant space mirror/advertising board in orbit around earth!
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