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[MetalSlimeHunt]

Britain dug its own grave on this one. You can't expect to snub Europe in favor of backing the wrong horse in the US and not have there be consequences when that obese nationalist horse finally breaks a leg. The UK will come in last regardless of any politician's feelings, because it has the least to offer between the US, EU, and itself.

[TD1]

I mean, sure? The whole Brexit thing was sure to shake up trade. A global economic powerhouse leaving its greatest trade partner? Yikes.

Of course, once you get into the world of 'punish Britain for Brexit' it's a different matter.

Also I'm curious, in what way did the UK 'back the wrong horse in the US'? I've only ever really seen old Nigel support the Trump.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

In terms of full-throated ideological support, sure. But from a foreign policy and trade perspective, the entire Tory Brexit argument has been deeply dependent from the beginning on a realignment to the US, which is the only semi-plausible answer to the question "Hey, isn't this economic suicide?".

Boris though took this all the way from a vague answer to an actual dependency, putting a lot of things explicitly on a trade deal between him and Trump, probably to no small degree because Trump is incompetent and would be likely to give a favorable deal to the UK for putting little US flags on everything or whatever.

But like Bibi in Israel, this action is no longer divorced from American partisanship especially because Trump never shut the fuck up about it - as far as many politicians and members of the public are concerned, the UK backed Trump in a serious way. Biden isn't one for retaliation, but that is the minority perspective at this point. Of course, with the Senate so dysfunctional right now that's just one more factor thrown on a pile of factors that will almost certainly see the UK left out in the cold.

[hector13]

Well yes, why not cheer it?

Biden wants Britain to come last in trade talks and refused to talk to a BBC reporter because "I'm Irish".

Why should Britain get to skip the line? The British negotiating position is a lot weaker now as they’re heading inexorably toward losing unfettered access to one of the largest markets in the world.

It is mind-boggling that you would prefer a deal negotiated by an administration lead by Donald Trump - who is known for fucking over other people he makes deals with prior to his presidency, and during it has been more than happy to throw around the US’ economic weight to bully other nations and entities into providing deals that benefit the US more - over one lead by Irish Biden.

[TD1]

I think the word you're looking for is "WE are heading inexorably..." 

Well, firstly, why shouldn't Britain skip the line? Quite apart from the PR of the 'special relationship', Britain isn't an economic backwater. It would benefit both sides to negotiate sooner rather than later.

Secondly, even were that not the case, I'd still cheer for Britain 'skipping the line'. Because yes, I'm biased. I live there.

As for your mind's boggled nature, I am not sure how you managed that. I will attempt to unboggle.

A deal negotiated with an idiot now
Is better than
A deal negotiated with someone who hates us never.

Worst-case scenario is we turn Trump's deal down. (Assuming a level of competence on our part, which is of course debatable).

Plus, Trump won't be in office for much longer. Either he wants to peeve Biden off with a sneak-deal or he wants to go out with one more conquest. Either way, he wants to deal.

[misko27]

Well, firstly, why shouldn't Britain skip the line? Quite apart from the PR of the 'special relationship', Britain isn't an economic backwater. It would benefit both sides to negotiate sooner rather than later.

Yeah but one side wants it a lot more than another, which is a usual sign that a deal won't be fair to someone (though who specifically it is unfair to depends on specifics).

In any case Britain's on the clock in more ways than one. As MSH said, Biden lacks the desire to enforce grudges, but it is a minority view, and a number of democratic politicians and individuals in the incoming administration have bad memories of Johnson from the Obama years (wherein he accused Obama of having an "Ancestral hatred of the British Empire" because of his Kenyan heritage), and more recent bitter memories of Trump helpfully calling Johnson the ungrammatical "Britain Trump".

[Loud Whispers]

Why should Britain get to skip the line? The British negotiating position is a lot weaker now as they’re heading inexorably toward losing unfettered access to one of the largest markets in the world.

Of the USA's top 10 trade waifus, the USA doesn't have a trade agreement with China, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Taiwan and Vietnam in order of trade volume. China and Taiwan are difficult; even if you ignore Washington's current pivot against China, you choose one and you make a trade agreement with the other impossible. The US-Japan trade agreement was concluded last year. USA-German trade negotiations via the EU-US TTIP negotiations failed courtesy of Dolan. A US-EU trade agreement may be able to resume negotiations upon the change of office. That just leaves the UK, Switzerland and Vietnam. Of those three, the UK is the largest, closest aligned, with a considerable overlap in direct foreign investment between both nations, trade between both nations and the movement of workers between both nations. Most importantly, the UK is unlike Switzerland and Vietnam, actually pursuing a US-UK trade agreement. If the USA would rather prioritise a trade deal with China fair enough, but if that's not happening then there's no one else without a trade deal which conducts this much business in and out of America.

It is mind-boggling that you would prefer a deal negotiated by an administration lead by Donald Trump - who is known for fucking over other people he makes deals with prior to his presidency, and during it has been more than happy to throw around the US’ economic weight to bully other nations and entities into providing deals that benefit the US more - over one lead by Irish Biden.

Like Th4DwArfY1, I would prefer to have an offer over nothing. Whilst Boris is 90% likely to accept a shit deal, as a normal human bean I don't really have much impact on the outcome. But assuming I was Prime Minister tomorrow, I would press for an initial agreement from which amendments could be made in future. This is in fact the course of action our country has taken with all of our trade partners - the signing of a trade agreement that is just a codification of the current status quo. The two stark exceptions are with the EU (for obvious reasons, as a UK-EU trade deal has so many political dimensions to consider) and with the US - where liking or disliking the UK has become bipartisan.

[dragdeler]

-

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Man, I was not expecting to uncork AmeriPol's hidden anti-Britbong sentiments.

[Loud Whispers]

But I actually do want Brazil to do well ;-;

[Dostoevsky]

Note that under the various arcane fast-track procedures, the only trade mini-deals the Trump administration can do right now without congressional approval are with Japan (which, as noted, was done last year), EU, and UK.

Also, that fast-track procedure itself ends in June of next year, meaning that congress would need to pass a new fast-track authorization (or approve a trade deal, which has proven tricky as of late) for anything later. Biden does have a narrow window to do a mini-deal before then; he needs to give a notice to congress under the current authority specifying a nation then let it ripen for 90 days.

[LordBaal]

What else could he potentially do? Declare "Viernes Fiesta" were every American has to wear traditional mexican hats and eat tacos?

[Starver]

It is worth noting that we (UK) are beyond the final final final deadline for sorting out things with the EU, and into an extension of the final final final talks[1]. I see our side's potential acceptance of this like a man adrift at sea in a lifebelt choosing to turn to the guy in the liferaft with a hook-for-a-hand (who has a nasty look in his eye, also apparently unbothered by the slow leak he already caused for himself), just because they don't like the boat behind them that they jumped from in a drunken rage and refuses to climb back into on 'principle'.

Best case scenario is the UK is just using this offer to persuade the EU that it 'has other offers', like the husband who moved out of his house and started living in his company car, but that's a desperate ploy that is never going to be taken seriously. And I wouldn't trust this government to understand this. We have Jacob Rees-Mogg today saying that Unicef's wish to make donations to children in England who are clearly living under hardship (and likely were even before Covid) isn't needed and 'is political'. This from the arch-politico, in some ways a Mitch McConnell of Westminster, who was born with a whole silver service in his mouth, has never known poverty as a child or otherwise, and had a nanny when he was young whom he still comfortay employs as an adult to look after his own numerous[2] children.

I dismiss it, though. It's just a distraction. From things on both sides of the Pond.


In AmeriPol terms, as this isn't a Brexit thread, it's Trump trying to add to his 'successes', like brokering peace between countries not even actively at war (plus using that excuse to try to sell more weapons to them(!)), or even on the same continent... The poo-flinging monkey is also throwing bananas (hopefully with its other hand) hoping that some of them land somewhere it can claim to be useful. Perhaps some of the poo and some of the bananas land close to each other (Western Sahara), and he's just as fine with that.


[1] Apparently because of the singular vanity-project of ensuring there's not some sort of hot Cod War in our waters, which would actually involve the final vestiges of a once-great industry that vastly declined for plenty of reasons that did not include Europe.

[2] And at least partially numerated in your actual Latin...

[TD1]

I thought boat with hook-man and puncture was the EU at first and was like
Yea, that's actually a good way of looking at it.

[Starver]

I think I already know you have a different skew to your opinions on that. But I'm having difficulty taking that seriously.