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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4241248 times)

lemon10

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41970 on: November 13, 2020, 05:55:34 pm »

I don't think trump is actually going to run in 2024.  He's just going to blow hot air at rallies and collect campaign donations, but just take the money and run when the election year actually hits.  It's just his next big grift, and his cult will fall for it.
Trump isn't going to run in 2024.
I think he really wants one big thing: Not to go to prison (and to make as much money as possible doing so).
To do that he is trying his very best to stay in the white house, because as president he simply won't ever go to prison.


If he gets kicked out but doesn't go to prison then I honestly think he would be very happy not running for president again.
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41971 on: November 13, 2020, 06:33:54 pm »

The Republicans will probably learn from their mistakes (arguably having a President wasn't a mistake but the kind they got was) and their successes (it seems that they didn't poison their own chalice enough to (yet) lose the other parts of government, but it's hard to credit Trump to this fact without assuming N. E. Other in the position would not - save for the old "look over here!" distraction he caused perhaps).

What have the Democrats learnt, though?  Except that, whatever you think about the candidates, they managed to pick ones barely more popular than what the Republicans put up (and not enough so, in at least one of those cases).

It's an interesting avenue to ask what both parties have learned from the experience. However, what the Republicans learned may not be positive. They learned what works and what doesn't work, and the bits that worked, they're going to weaponize those going forward. A narcissist having a bad experience with someone else as a result of their pathology doesn't necessarily turn into not a narcissist as a result of learning from the experience, they use the experience to work out how to be a better narcissist. Generally bad experiences cause people to change the absolute least amount that they can, in a way that avoids the bad experience, before they start trying to change themselves in any deeper way. They may be throwing Trump under the bus and throwing Trump's policies under the bus, but that doesn't mean they're rejecting Trumpian tactics and strategy: that just needs to be refined in service to the movement rather than the loose-cannon version that is Trump himself.

If the Democrats learn anything, it should be from both elections. The major criticism of them, in terms of having an ear to the ground is that they scoffed, both times, that any of the stuff Trump was doing or saying would be popular. We've had two elections now where the polls and media did in fact push a narrative where the Democrats were going to absolutely steamroll home, yet it didn't happen either time.

So, first fix the problem of not knowing what the fuck is going on. Once the liberal / Democratic institutions actually have something in place so they know what's going on instead of some whitewashed version, that's when you can have a conversation of what to do about it. Maybe they should have picked Sanders in 2016. Perhaps the same flaws in polling and data collection that lead to Trump's surprise win would have also meant Sanders was the candidate if those weren't so broken. Think about it this way, if the information systems /networks Democrats were relying on were completely wrong on who was actually best candidate out of Trump and Clinton, why would they be any more accurate about who was the best candidate out of Clinton and Sanders?

So yeah, accurate polling methods are half the battle at least. One point is that Rasmussen was widely derided for their "biased" polling methods suggesting Trump was more popular than other polls indicated. Rasmussen was right however, they've been right two times now and dismissed two times now. That's something the Democrats can learn from. Some of Rasmussen's techniques should be considered for other polls to get more accurate information.

In Chomsky's terms, the media represents the interests of the corporate/political class, and the Overton Window that they operate within is what the media operates in. Trump, for all his faults, got outside that Overton Window, and everyone else scoffed that there was nothing there to see. Trump did in fact prove them wrong and if you're going to beat fascism, people have to accept that. If he's that fucking stupid and he got outside your Overton Window and won once, and came a lot closer to winning the second time than he was given credit for, it's time to rethink how things are going.

It's all well and good to say "we can't bring in views outside the Overton Window because that would be giving 'them' a platform" but ... you're going to keep sliding into this shit if you keep doing the same thing. The current strategy seems to be to de-platform anyone outside the acceptable range of opinion. Is that really going to fix the problem that got you here?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 07:06:31 pm by Reelya »
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41972 on: November 13, 2020, 07:14:18 pm »

Seem to recall Rasmussen has still been pretty damn wrong, they're just wrong in a way that happens to be sorta' similar to what actually happened, in some ways. Basically a thing where you don't actually want to do what they're doing 'cause their methodology is kinda' shit, they just happened to fuck up the right way this time. Somewhat. Not entirely.

Polling been real weird this cycle, and it's not being helped by actually being mostly pretty accurate, just not in a way that meshes well with the clusterfuck that is our election results publication. Fair amount that looked royally fucked on the 3rd has turned out to be pretty close as shit actually finished getting counted, which is probably going to drive pollsters up the goddamn walls, since it doesn't, like, lend itself well to figuring out what did go wrong in places :-\
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41973 on: November 13, 2020, 07:23:19 pm »

Guessing is not being correct, even if you do end up being correct. That's Trafalgar's deal.

Rasmussen's whole deal is that they mostly massage the feelings of the Republicans who subscribe to them, then occasionally stick a knife in them hedging with some ridiculously favorable poll to Democrats. Then they focus on whichever version of reality played out afterwards. That also is not being right.

Rasmussen is good at tracking boomers in a way that other polsters aren't, but that's not going to get any more useful than it currently is, and less useful every year hence.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41974 on: November 13, 2020, 07:52:53 pm »


If the Democrats learn anything, it should be from both elections. The major criticism of them, in terms of having an ear to the ground is that they scoffed, both times, that any of the stuff Trump was doing or saying would be popular. We've had two elections now where the polls and media did in fact push a narrative where the Democrats were going to absolutely steamroll home, yet it didn't happen either time.


At the Presidential level, the results this year were pretty much exactly as predicted outside of Florida - which was largely a error of not separating Cubans from the general "Hispanic" group. Congressionally, things are more off, but to get these results a lot of people had to have voted for Binen and split-ticketed an R Senator. Which may well be because of an expected Biden steamroll.
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41975 on: November 13, 2020, 08:55:00 pm »

Polling been real weird this cycle, and it's not being helped by actually being mostly pretty accurate, just not in a way that meshes well with the clusterfuck that is our election results publication. Fair amount that looked royally fucked on the 3rd has turned out to be pretty close as shit actually finished getting counted, which is probably going to drive pollsters up the goddamn walls, since it doesn't, like, lend itself well to figuring out what did go wrong in places :-\

It doesn't feel that accurate, Biden was supposed to be up by 10 points in places he barely scraped ahead. Last time I was willing to dismiss that as normal variations in results, since Trump's first win was within the 'roll of the dice' type likelihoods given the limits of polling, but it really is starting to feel like there are systematic issues going on now.

One thing that's been mentioned specifically that I alluded to is that Rasmussen uses automated polling rather than a talking to a human. When talking to a human you're going to moderate what you'll say. But you don't want people moderating what they say when you're trying to get the truth. It's one of the things that's definitely worth looking at, for example what people say online is a hell of a lot different to what they say face to face. And it's easy to dismiss any online opinions as "fringe" and the face to face stuff as the real deal. But, that may well be the wrong way around, with the online cesspit really getting to the heart of what people actually think.

Egan_BW

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41976 on: November 13, 2020, 09:10:44 pm »

person on npr this morning was saying there was a study where they compared doing polls in person with doing it online and it was the same
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41977 on: November 13, 2020, 09:12:33 pm »

That might depend on the type of question however, what was the context of the question type in the study?

For Wisconsin, the polls right up to the wire said Biden was going to be ~7% up but it turned out to be ~0.5%. No matter how you slice that, something is broken there.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 09:19:08 pm by Reelya »
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MaxTheFox

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41978 on: November 14, 2020, 02:45:54 am »

Let's be honest I really don't trust online voting. Mail-in is better because you can't hack mail-in. So don't fix what ain't broke.
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misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41979 on: November 14, 2020, 03:14:44 am »

That might depend on the type of question however, what was the context of the question type in the study?

For Wisconsin, the polls right up to the wire said Biden was going to be ~7% up but it turned out to be ~0.5%. No matter how you slice that, something is broken there.
On the other hand, polling in Georgia said it was a tossup, which was a spitting image of exactly what we saw on election night and thereafter (and to the surprise of many, I might add). So it's not clear that all polling is equally broken in all circumstances.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2020, 03:16:25 am by misko27 »
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41980 on: November 14, 2020, 04:31:05 am »

Let's be honest I really don't trust online voting. Mail-in is better because you can't hack mail-in. So don't fix what ain't broke.

We're talking about surveys, nothing to do with online voting. Polls = opinion polls, nothing to do with election voting.

Recent poll (survey) results have been way off, and there's some speculation that talking to a real person might make people less likely to divulge their actual opinion if it's unpopular. An alternative is where an automated voice reads out the questions for phone polls, and the person then pushes a button for which response they want.

Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41981 on: November 14, 2020, 06:08:30 am »

The real bitch of it seems to be that nobody except the fascists was willing to countenance the idea they shared the nation with a bunch of goddamn fucking fascists.

I even let myself start to expect that Trump being such a colossal unappealing fuckup and doing every wrong thing he can might just result in his bullshit being roundly rejected by all but the most craven bitchboi nazi fucks.

So after seeing him get 72 million votes and just under a couple weeks out from the election we're closing in on 200k new covid cases each day... the takeway seems to be one of two things:

I was wrong because you don't have to be a nazi to love the stupid orange cunt, as long as you're a stupid piece of shit, and we are sharing a nation with millions upon millions of stupid motherfuckers that function on the same mental level as a herd of cattle, a herd which don't seem to mind being directed into ever shittier situations by fucking nazis.

or

I was right to think nobody but a bunch of fascist fucking shitsuckers would willingly support that stupid orange bitchbaby shitnazi, but I vastly underestimated the number of people who are totally fucking down with riding the trumptrain into a fascist dystopian hellhole because there are apparently millions of these stupid garbagenazi racist pieces of shit out there.

I'm not sure which is more depressing honestly, though I feel it'll probably be a bit of column A and a bit of column B where all the stupid fucking cattle have been primed and bred stupid so long that they'll start goose-stepping into the slaughterhouse happily even when you tell them they're being used as pawns by nazis because "hurr hurr, libruls hate nazis!"

It's the reverse of Farnworth's "I don't want to live on this planet anymore" for me, I want to put them all on boats, let them have a dumbfuck parade out into the fucking ocean, and hurl the ocean into the sun.


I mean, I've been pretty jaded about how shitty people here can be to each other for as long as I can remember, but I really didn't expect us to sink this low this fast. I kept some sort of... I guess the closest thing would be hope that the average person wasn't that awful, hope just makes the disappointment that much more heartbreaking doesn't it?

Reagan was a piece of shit and the best thing he ever did was fucking die, the heirs to his hateful legacy are all pieces of shit too, but goddamn, they weren't fucking openly cheering on a fascist takeover in the midst of a full on governmental collapse with a tally of over a quarter of a million completely pointless and preventable american deaths... I wish I'd been louder and more persuasive about the neonazi outbreak a few years ago, as I'm sure many others who were trying to sound that alarm do, but fuck.

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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41982 on: November 14, 2020, 06:18:13 am »

KOriginally in reply to...)
Recent poll (survey) results have been way off, and there's some speculation that talking to a real person might make people less likely to divulge their actual opinion if it's unpopular. An alternative is where an automated voice reads out the questions for phone polls, and the person then pushes a button for which response they want.
(...but first para might also be a reply to Max©® ;))

I've heard things about "Shy Trumpers" (we in the UK had a lot of Shy Tories a few years back). And then you apparently largely miss various demographics (Cuban Floridians, etc[1], at least until next time, when you'll forget the Yugoslav Alaskans or whatever).

What the pollsters need to do to get more accurate results is to have a nationwide poll and encourage every voting age person to participate. Tell them that their answers will be used to elect the next <whatever is being elected>. To make sure you have everyone, you need official government records. The workload on the polling staff would be easier you set up a sort of 'polling station' in every handy place and incentivise everyone to come to you (give 'em a trinket for their trouble), but maybe allow people to participate by mail if even that is inconvenient. If you do it right, you can be so accurate that everybody can amicably agree that you don't then need all the fuss and expense of an election!!!


[1] And how're you going to talk to the back-woods isolationists who're off-grid from utilities and not keen on doorstepping? ;)
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misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41983 on: November 14, 2020, 10:53:45 am »

For those curious how Trump's legal campaign is proceeding  (I know I was): ‘Purely outlandish stuff’: Trump’s legal machine grinds to a halt

And if you're wondering why that might be: Giuliani wrecks Trump campaign's well-laid legal plans
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41984 on: November 14, 2020, 01:34:05 pm »

A couple of interesting reads that I saw the BBC write up, earlier (for what it's worth, as they're not everyone's thing, I know, even in here...)

So, about those dead voters in Michigan...
They sampled the 'supporting' data-dump, and give their conclusions.

Some Republican voters' current thoughts
Latest in a long line of vox-pops, prior ones tended to covering Republican/Democrat(/Independent)-inclined, for comparison. And all choices likely 'curated' for our reding pleasure, except for the ones where they chose some people and followed them as the news changed.
This one instead covers a few individuals with various flavours of Republicanism, and/or mainly just Trumpism.  Nothing surprising, several things I think are misconceived, but voices that need hearing...
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