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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4227398 times)

RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41085 on: October 29, 2020, 12:57:46 pm »

So, in addition to the Federal elections (and state elections and local elections), there are 120 ballot initiatives/referenda/propositions/whatever-your-state-calls-them in 32 states.

I won't cover them all but let's touch on some of the more interesting and/or groundbreaking.

Arizona, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota will be voting on whether to legalize recreational marijuana.
Mississippi and South Dakota will be voting on whether to legalize medical marijuana. Yes, you read that correctly -- South Dakota is voting simultaneously on medical and recreational marijuana, the first state to do so.

Oregon says, "Whoa, hold my toke, dudes" and is voting to legalize psilocybin-containing mushrooms, under strict supervision in "service centers". If successful, it'll be fascinating to see if Oregon leads a second wave of drug decriminalization focused on hallucinogens. We can't have universal health care, but maybe we'll all be tripping balls so it's all good.

California will be voting on Prop 22 (started by Lyft, Uber and DoorDash that would calssify gig workers as independent contractors and not employees, and therefore not subject to benefits or minimum wage laws.
Also Prop 25, which will attempt to uphold a state Senate Bill 10, which would eliminate the cash bail system in favor of a risk assessment to determine if someone is a flight risk. If successful, it would be the first state to eliminate cash bail for all suspects awaiting trial.

Colorado will be voting on an initiative to reintroduce the gray wolf to designated lands west of the Continental Divide by 2023.

Mississippi will be voting on a new state flag to replace the last state flag in the country bearing the Confederate battle flag as part of its overall design. Oddly, they're not choosing between a slate of designs but rather whether to accept a single design proffered so far. If rejected, it'll go back to a committee to produce another design and that one will be on the ballot in a special election next year.

And lastly, Rhode Island will be voting to change it's official name to "State of Rhode Island". That may sound tautological, but currently its' actual legal name is the "State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations". The word "plantation" isn't exactly in vogue these days, as you might guess. And you can guess pretty much how the support/opposition breaks down in terms of partisanship. A previous attempt to change it to just "Rhode Island" failed in 2010 with 77.9% against. Will be interesting to see how it turns out with 10 years and the BLM movement added to the mix.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41086 on: October 29, 2020, 01:03:22 pm »

Mild amusement, beyond stuff that ranges from upping the minimum wage to probably functionally crippling the state's ability to make ballot initiative changes (requiring two consecutive votes to pass instead of just the one), Florida has a proposal on the ballot to change over to open primaries. Left up to the reader is whether that would be fun, or "fun".
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 01:27:22 pm by Frumple »
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Eschar

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41087 on: October 29, 2020, 01:18:19 pm »

!!FUN!!
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RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41088 on: October 29, 2020, 01:27:53 pm »

Mild amusement, beyond stuff that ranges from upping the minimum wage to probably functionally crippling the state's ability to make ballot initiative changes (requiring two consecutive votes to pass instead of just the one), Florida has a proposal on the ballot to change over the open primaries. Left up to the reader is whether that would be fun, or "fun".
I saw that. My understanding is that they're looking to adopt something like Georgia's "jungle primary" system where everyone runs in the same race, and if anyone gets more than 50% they win, otherwise it goes to a runoff between the top two. I *actually* like that model the more I've thought about it. One of the problems with the primary system is that it tends to encourage more extreme candidates, which then leads to general election matchups that are billed like the fucking Battle of Stalingrad, with Nazis vs. Communists.

Look at the Georgia special election for Senate -- Loeffler and Collins are busy trying to one-up each other on just how far-right they can be, while Raphael Warnock is free to just run as a moderately progressive, "common sense" candidate. While he can't make 50% without some of the other Dems (most of whom are actually more centrist) dropping out, he'll likely benefit in the runoff from seeming like a normal human being, while whomever the 2nd place finisher is is going to have one hell of a pivot to make, while simultaneously wiping the rabid froth off their mouth after they just got done saying how they'd personally run a Mack truck through a BLM rally while giving birth to a bald eagle dual-wielding AR-15s.

So in theory, after a couple of cycles an open primary should lead to more moderate candidates. Or at least, candidates who espouse more moderate views on the campaign trail.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41089 on: October 29, 2020, 01:57:21 pm »

California will be voting on Prop 22 (started by Lyft, Uber and DoorDash that would calssify gig workers as independent contractors and not employees, and therefore not subject to benefits or minimum wage laws.

For those who haven't seen/heard yet, there's quite a bit of corporate awfulness going on in this one. E.g. hassling employees to support the ballot measure (see some more context here; seems they used it to generate a "X% of drivers support prop 22" figure).

Here in MD the biggest thing is sports betting, so I guess we're relatively tame here.

[jungle primaries]

They can be a good idea, but in some areas you could end up in a situation where the two runoff candidates are both of the same party (this has happened in CA), leading to the general being a practice in out-extreming the other.
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41090 on: October 29, 2020, 02:03:55 pm »

Mild amusement, beyond stuff that ranges from upping the minimum wage to probably functionally crippling the state's ability to make ballot initiative changes (requiring two consecutive votes to pass instead of just the one), Florida has a proposal on the ballot to change over to open primaries. Left up to the reader is whether that would be fun, or "fun".

It's not like Florida really follows its constitution anyway. We had a constitutional requirement to build high speed rail and just kind of ignored it until Amtrak got cut out of the state after Katrina and Floridians forgot what a train was.

They can be a good idea, but in some areas you could end up in a situation where the two runoff candidates are both of the same party (this has happened in CA), leading to the general being a practice in out-extreming the other.

It's definitely good in some areas where you CAN'T win running as a candidate of a certain party, and gives people the chance to have multiple choices even if they both have to run under the same banner. As it is now, sections of Florida have representatives, who win simply because they've got an R in front of their name and they had no viable competition. Can run as far right as you want, but if you've got that D next to your name you're never going to win.
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Dostoevsky

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41091 on: October 29, 2020, 02:06:00 pm »

Yeah, on the whole I think jungle primaries are a good idea. Not perfect, but probably better than the traditional way.

(And since I'm a registered independent, in my state I don't even get to vote in the primary.)
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RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41092 on: October 29, 2020, 02:34:17 pm »


[jungle primaries]

They can be a good idea, but in some areas you could end up in a situation where the two runoff candidates are both of the same party (this has happened in CA), leading to the general being a practice in out-extreming the other.
Sure, that's a risk. Though as it would happen in places where the electorate is overwhelmingly lopsided towards one party, that may be democracy functioning as intended. As it stands in those locations now, it's mostly out-extremeing in private and then not even bothering to campaign in the general because it's a foregone conclusion.

Case in point: NC-4 (my district). Its' PVI is D+17, which is why we've had the same Congresscritter for 33 years (minus a 2-year hiatus from 1994-1996 during Newt Gingrich's "Republican Revolution"). Now, I actually like David Price and am happy to vote for him every two years. But damn....at least have enough of a race to make him have to campaign once in a while.

It doesn't help that, being such a lost cause, only the derpiest and most desperate Republicans run for the seat. His opponent in 2008 made news for actually running TV ads, which most of Price's opponents hadn't even bothered doing in years.

A jungle primary here almost certainly would lead to two Democrats in the runoff, but people also might be more inclined to vote for new blood if they knew there was no chance of a Republican winning as a result. I think Price tends to win his primaries handily because people worry that nominating a new face might give the Republicans an opening (and because he's done a pretty decent job).
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Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41093 on: October 29, 2020, 02:43:43 pm »

Also to note, it sounds as if Florida's amendment would only apply to state positions. Federal elections would remain with the current closed primary system.
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RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41094 on: October 29, 2020, 10:52:32 pm »

Heh...you know how I've been throwing shade at Trafalgar Group's polls for a while now? 538 banned them from their pollster list for blatantly insane crosstabs that Silver said looked "made-up" (stuff like Trump winning 25 percent of Democrats, winning independents by 32.5 points, carrying 31 percent of the black vote, etc.) At which point Trafalgar removed the crosstabs from their site rather than defend them.

Hopefully these assholes get laughed straight out of the industry after this. Guarantee the Trump campaign has been paying them to concoct friendly poll results to skew the aggregators like RCP and 538.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41095 on: October 29, 2020, 11:43:21 pm »

They were fools to think they could muscle in on Rasmussen's territory. Now those are some master-tier book cookers, and they're careful to occasionally release a poll that's ridiculously favorable to the Dems, both to scare their own RNC wonk readership and in propitiation of Nate Indium.

That said, if Trump wins they're sure to drown in regime dollars and be insufferable forever.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41096 on: October 30, 2020, 09:17:32 am »

This got shared on dischord.

It needs to be here.  Finally, transparency in government!

(Lol!)

https://youtu.be/dpIkl2QnJeI
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41097 on: October 30, 2020, 09:20:13 am »

So hey, with a day of early voting and actual election day left, Texas has, uh. Surpassed its total 2016 voting turnout. That's neat.
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RedKing

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41098 on: October 30, 2020, 10:37:19 am »

This got shared on dischord.

It needs to be here.  Finally, transparency in government!

(Lol!)

https://youtu.be/dpIkl2QnJeI
"Profits Made, Profits Kept" is a brilliant bit of sloganry.

So hey, with a day of early voting and actual election day left, Texas has, uh. Surpassed its total 2016 voting turnout. That's neat.
So has Hawaii! Which is probably less impressive, but still sorta impressive.

EDIT:
Also, Trump threw Republican Senator Martha McSally under the bus in the most hilarious fashion possible at a rally in Arizona on Wednesday. He gave fucking Nigel Farage more time to speak.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 11:09:34 am by RedKing »
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SOLDIER First

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #41099 on: October 30, 2020, 02:14:42 pm »

We can't have universal health care, but maybe we'll all be tripping balls so it's all good.
There is no way that universal healthcare can make the private sector money, but there are many ways that legalized drug use can.
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