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[RedKing]

Best reply I've seen so far: "Trump's Fyre Festival is lit!" 

Oh well, maybe Trump will send the military to save them, since his plan for everything else seems to be "let the generals figure it out".

EDIT: Apparently about 30 folks needed medical attention, including an elderly man in a wheelchair and "a father with small children". Pretty sure dragging your kids out at 9pm in subfreezing temperatures to watch Trump should be classified as child abuse.

Found this gem from the NBC report:

Trump told the crowd he'd been to Wisconsin and Michigan earlier on Tuesday, where it had also been freezing and raining and thanked crowds for attending.

"I said I won't put on a hat because I'm gonna show you how tough we are," he said.

I'm gonna laugh my ass off if he winds up pulling a reverse William Henry Harrison and dies of pneumonia just weeks after *losing* the election. Lame Duck Pence would be a lot less of a concern.

[sluissa]

Passed onto me by an acquaintance that still hangs out on 4chan.

According to the information they're passing on, someone, possibly supported by Steve Bannon, is posting photos they're claiming to be Hunter Biden's dick pics.

It's mostly a bunch of Qanon style conspiracy shit otherwise, but hidden in there is a claim that the lewd photos are all telling a story and have hidden meaning behind them.

So now you've apparently got a bunch of conspiracy theorists staring at penis photos trying to work out the deep meaning behind them.

I just thought it was worth a chuckle. Gotta grab em where you can find them. Also hopeful of the possible bonus of Trump retweeting a penis at some point.

[Starver]

He already has.

[SOLDIER First]

why do you have an acquaintance who still hangs out on a fascist recruitment board

[RedKing]

Ok, so I gathered all the data regarding mail-in ballots, counting dates, time of poll closures, etc. and tried to make a guess at when the major networks would call each state (I could be off if they're far more conservative about the practice, as some have stated that they will be) and tried to game out a play-by-play timeline of Election Night. I'm probably going to be hilariously wrong but let's see how it goes. I'll hide the nuts and bolts in a spoiler, because it's long, but the upshot is this:

Trump will likely be in the lead from the first poll closings to around 8:30pm EST. Once Illinois and Massachussetts are called for Biden (and they will be), Biden takes the lead and never looks back. Trump will hang around on Biden's heels long enough to give half the country a coronary for most of the night, but I'm calling it now that Florida will be the state that puts Biden over the top and does so sometime around midnight.
A whopping ten other states will still be too close to call (or not finished voting *cough* Alaska*) but it won't matter.

Spoiler: The Timetable (click to show/hide)

NOTE: All times are Eastern Standard Time

7pm
Polls close in GA, IN, KY, NH, SC, VT, VA
Vermont called for Biden on close. 3-0
Kentucky called for Trump within 15 min. 3-8

7:30pm
Polls close in NC, OH, WV
West Virginia called for Trump on close. 3-13

7:45pm
Virginia called for Biden within 45 min. 16-13
Indiana called for Trump within 45 min. 16-24
New Hampshire called for Biden within 45 min. 20-24

8:00pm
Polls close in AL, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MA, MD, MS, MO, NJ, OK, PA, RI
South Carolina called for Trump within 1 hour. 20-33
Oklahoma called for Trump on close. 20-40
District of Columbia called for Biden on close. 23-40

8:15pm
Alabama called for Trump within 15 min. 23-49 **This is likely Trump's highwater mark in terms of a lead.
Connecticut called for Biden within 15 min. 30-49
Delaware called for Biden within 15 min. 33-49
Maryland called for Biden within 15 min. 43-49
Rhode Island called for Biden within 15 min. 47-49

8:30pm
Polls close in AR
Illinois called for Biden within 30 min. 67-49
Massachusetts called for Biden within 30 min. 78-49
Maine and both its' CDs called for Biden within 30 min. 82-49
Mississippi called for Trump within 30 min. 82-55
New Jersey called for Biden within 30 min. 96-55

8:45pm
Missouri called for Trump within 45 min. 96-65
Arkansas called for Trump within 15 min. 96-71

9pm
Polls close in AZ, CO, KS, LA, MI, MN, NE, NM, NY, SD, TN, TX, WI, WY
Wyoming called for Trump on close. 96-74

9:15pm
New York called for Biden within 15 min. 125-74
South Dakota called for Trump within 15 min. 125-77
Louisiana called for Trump within 15 min. 125-85

9:30pm
Nebraska plus CDs 1 and 3 called for Trump within 30 min. 125-89
Nebraska CD 2 called for Biden within 30 min. 126-89
New Mexico called for Biden within 30 min. 131-89
Tennessee called for Trump within 30 min. 131-100

9:45pm
Colorado called for Biden within 45 min. 140-100

10:00pm
Polls close in IA, MT, NV
Arizona called for Biden within 1 hour. 151-100
Kansas called for Trump within 1 hour. 151-106

11:00pm
Polls close in CA, ID, ND, OR, WA
Michigan called for Biden after 2 hours. 167-106
California called for Biden on close. 222-106
Washington called for Biden within 15 min. 234-106
Oregon called for Biden within 15 min. 241-106
Idaho called for Trump within 15 min. 241-110
North Dakota called for Trump within 15 min. 241-113

12:00am
Polls close in HI
Florida called for Biden after 4 hours. 270-113
Hawaii called for Biden at close 274-113.

At this point, the following states would still be outstanding:

Georgia
North Carolina
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Iowa
Texas
Wisconsin
Alaska (still voting)

Ultimately, Biden should get enough to crack 300 easily, probably not enough to keep Trump from cracking 200, though if Ohio and/or Texas and/or Georgia go Biden's way, it could happen.

The good news is that any talk of "whoever's leading at midnight should win" would backfire on Trump. The states he's going to need to pull out a win won't be done counting for several hours, if not days. Expect to see Trump and his sycophants pivot hard from "We need a winner on Election Night" to "EVERY VOTE MUST BE COUNTED", even though they're likely toast late on Election Night.

Obviously, it goes without saying that there are a million and one ways I can be off and almost certainly will be. But I still think the general ebb and flow will be accurate.

[MrRoboto75]

but what if the chads hang in florida again

[RedKing]

but what if the chads hang in florida again

Florida actually looks to have learned their lessons from being an electoral embarrassment in a few past cycles.

Couple of reasons why I think Florida will be able to call a winner on Election Night (and why they'll do it before nearly a dozen other states):
1. Nearly half of the registered electorate has voted as of today (49.21%).
2. While more than of those votes are mail-in ballots (4,066,974), Florida began processing and counting those votes 22 days before the election, the earliest such period in the country. By comparison, PA, MI and WI can't begin counting until Election Day itself.
3. They have a deadline of Election Day for mail-in votes to be received, so there's no potential waiting for additional votes as in several other swing states (NC, PA, MN, TX, OH, IA).

So the four hour wait is mostly because it's going to be extremely close. If, however, Florida goes to Trump and we're looking at Biden hovering around 250 EVs, things could get dicey. Georgia would be the next potential leg up, as they also have an Election Day deadline and have already processed millions of mail-in ballots as well as millions of in-person early votes. However, I think Georgia is going to be even closer than FL and may not get called until after midnight. Plus, it's only 16 EVs to Florida's 29. If Biden loses FL and wins GA, he's still short a handful of EVs, and they'd have to come from states which are giving 3 days or more for "late" mail-in ballots.

Now, it's possible Minnesota will be a big enough lead that they can call the state without waiting till November 10th, which in conjunction with Hawaii and Georgia would put him over the line. Or Michigan (which also has an Election Day deadline) will finally complete its count, and the trifecta of GA+MI+HI or MI+MN+HI would work.

Short version is: If Biden wins Florida, it's over on Election Night. If he doesn't, it's quite possible we don't have a winner until 3-4am, but Trump would also be heavily trailing so arguing for "whoever's ahead should win" won't work for them either, unless they try to halt state counts of mail-in ballots, which would be a huge Constitutional crisis as the governing of elections is specifically left up to the states.

The chances of not having a winner until days later is relatively low.

[Dostoevsky]

I feel like Florida has gone so consistently Republican the last few cycles (at the national race presidential and senatorial level, at least) that I'm pretty wary of thinking it's going to go for Biden since his polling lead hasn't been highly above the margin of error.

[RedKing]

I feel like Florida has gone so consistently Republican the last few cycles (at the national race presidential and senatorial level, at least) that I'm pretty wary of thinking it's going to go for Biden since his polling lead hasn't been highly above the margin of error.

Quite possible, which is when you get into the scenarios I was describing, where Biden has to clinch in the wee hours of the morning with 2 out of the 4 of Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Georgia.

I think Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Ohio won't be called for DAYS.

[sluissa]

Florida is going to be a weird one. I tend not to trust the polling on it as it has been not the best as of the last few elections and a 1.5point lead is not going to get me to bet any money on anything.

It's such a large state with such a diverse population that it's going to be difficult to get a poll that covers everyone adequately. I think Biden has a chance. Florida is always VERY close and in a year where the tourism industry has been destroyed by Trump Covid policies, I can see people maybe swinging that way if they see things in that light. But I can also see people being scared of Biden forcing further lockdowns. It'll be a weird one and I'm just thankful there are other paths to 270 that don't require Florida.

[RedKing]

If Michigan and Wisconsin actually process their millions of mail-in ballots in a timely manner and report in earlier than I'm expecting, it could wind up being Hawaii that puts Biden over 270. Which would be kinda hilarious and something they'd probably capitalize on for years.

"Come see the state that put the nail in Trump's coffin! Oh, and see our beaches and volcanoes and shit too."

[Greiger]

I'm not a political specialist or anything but we also have a governer down here in florida that is so far up trump's ass he's testing trump's food for poison.  He openly listens to what Trump says instead of health experts, was going to be rewarded for being a good yes man by having the RNC here until his own demand that Florida not shutdown caused Florida to be one of the worst covid hotspots in the country and caused it to be cancelled.  He also made it illegal for any counties or cities in the state to meaningfully enforce mask mandates.  Desantis is a Trump puppet.

Anybody with half a brain cell in this state wants Trump out, so that maybe at least then Desantis will pay attention to experts instead of him.  But I absolutely would not put it past Desantis to do something to fuck with the election results.  Wouldn't be the first sleasy thing he tried to do.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I think Trump will narrowly win Florida at least, by hook or by crook. While there's no country-wide regression to the mean, Florida has rapidly regressed over the past week. That kind of nightmarish shit, reflexively at the last minute, is perfectly in character for the Florida I know.

As much as I hate to say it, NC is a more reliable path to victory for Biden because of the Democratic control of the judiciary. Pennsylvania I think will go for Biden in votes but have its electors overturned if it would give Trump the election, and so Biden functionally has to win without it.

Neither Nevada nor Arizona are safe as the Dems want to believe, IMO. They've completely slipped up on Hispanic voters this cycle, somehow, which will help Trump in Florida too.

Finally, I'd knock an extra 1-1.5 points off Biden to account for the inevitable votes "lost in the mail", be they actually lost or just thrown out.

This election would not be close if it were fair. But it is not fair, and the better Biden does in the polls, the more tools will get pulled out of the drawer marked "ratfucking" in the RNC Mar-A-Lago Consulate.

[RedKing]

If Pennsylvania throws out the results and flips its electors to Trump, the shit going on in Philly will pale compared to what'll happen in Harrisonburg. They'll be fucking hanging legislators from lightpoles.

Ultimately, I'm not worried about PA because it'll be one of the last states to be called. And if the election is tight enough that it's the deciding margin, then Biden has likely lost anyways.

[sluissa]

I'm not a political specialist or anything but we also have a governer down here in florida that is so far up trump's ass he's testing trump's food for poison.  He openly listens to what Trump says instead of health experts, was going to be rewarded for being a good yes man by having the RNC here until his own demand that Florida not shutdown caused Florida to be one of the worst covid hotspots in the country and caused it to be cancelled.  He also made it illegal for any counties or cities in the state to meaningfully enforce mask mandates.  Desantis is a Trump puppet.

Anybody with half a brain cell in this state wants Trump out, so that maybe at least then Desantis will pay attention to experts instead of him.  But I absolutely would not put it past Desantis to do something to fuck with the election results.  Wouldn't be the first sleasy thing he tried to do.

Florida has a LOT of diverse Republican support in it though. Between the Cuban vote, the Villages, all the military bases scattered around, the space coast, and the very rural north. It's a weird state. Not even to get into the potential Amish/Mennonite vote.

On the other side of that you basically have to look for colleges and universities to find any deep democratic support. A few of the cities are big enough to have some left wing support and there are some areas that are loaded with transplants from other states.

To me it's more surprising that it IS as close as it is, cause this is what the state looks like a lot of the time:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)