And the numbers for the Senate....
Not a whole lot of change.
Safe Dem seats:
Coons (DE)
Durbin (IL)
Markey (MA)
Shaheen (NH)
Booker (NJ)
Lujan (NM)
Merkley (OR)
Reed (RI)
Warner (VA)
That's 9 of 12 accounted for.
Safe Republican seats:
Tuberville (AL) -- currently held by Doug Jones (D), who is trailing Tuberville by an average of 10.5
Cotton (AR)
Risch (ID)
McConnell (KY) -- despite the massive hate-boner Democrats have nationally for Mitch McConnell, he's leading by 9.5.
Cassidy (LA)
Sasse (NE)
Inhofe (OK)
Rounds (SD)
Hagerty (TN)
Capito (WV)
Lummis (WY)
Likely Dem Seats:
Peters (MI) -- up by 6
Hickenlooper (CO) -- currently held by Cory Gardner (R), who is trailing Hickenlooper by an average of 9.8
Smith (MN) -- up by 5.8
Gideon (ME) -- currently held by Susan Collins (R), who is trailing Gideon by 4.4
Likely Rep Seats:
Cornyn (TX) -- up by 6.8
Lean Dem:
Kelly (AZ) -- currently held by Martha McSally (R), who is trailing Kelly by 2.6. This one has tightened up considerably over the last couple of weeks.
Cunningham (NC) -- currently held by Thom Tillis (R), who is trailing Cunningham by 3.3. While there's still nearly 10% undecided in this race, no recent poll shows Tillis with anything better than a tie.
Lean Rep:
Hyde-Smith (MS) -- hampered by lack of polling data. Cindy Hyde-Smith was up by 10 way back in the spring, but the only recent poll (at the end of August) had her up by only 1. Given the lack of data,
and the fact that it's fucking Mississippi, I'm reluctant to call this one a true toss-up.
Tossups:
Ossoff (GA) -- currently held by David Perdue (R), who trails by 0.6, after leading by 2.8 a few weeks ago. Perdue's deliberate mangling of Kamala Harris' name brought Ossoff a whopping $2 million in 2 days.
Daines (MT) -- leads by 0.8, after leading by 3.3 a few weeks ago
Greenfield (IA) -- currently held by Joni Ernst, who trails by 0.7, after trailing by 4.8 a few weeks ago. This one has tightened up dramatically.
Sullivan (AK) -- leads by 2
Marshall (KS) -- leads by 3
Graham (SC) -- leads by 0.2, after being a dead heat a few weeks ago. Dems have been pouring an absolutely metric fuckton of cash into this race. Jaime Harrison has raised over $100 million now including $2 million from 10/22-10/24 alone, which has prompted Lindsey Graham to call for an investigation into Harrison's fundraising, saying it's coming from "shadowy figures" (They prefer to be called African-American, Lindsey.)
OMGWTFBBQ:
The Georgia special election is almost certain to go to a runoff between Warnock and Loeffler/Collins (no daylight between them, but I'd give the slight edge to Loeffler).
So the overall calculus hasn't changed much. Dems are virtually guaranteed to offset the loss in AL with the win in CO, then likely add to their total with wins in NC, ME and AZ, which would put them at 50-50. Taking either of the Georgia races or SC or IA would be extra insurance from DINOs like Joe Manchin.
Picking up the seat in MT would be overachieving, but quite possible.
Picking up Alaska, Kansas and/or Mississippi would be 4th Vince McMahon-tier orgasm for the DNC.
Picking up ALL of the above would also likely mean a Biden blowout and usher in a glorious age of gulags and re-wokeucation camps, since it would mean a 58-42 Senate with another favorable Senate cycle coming up in 2 years. Though, to be fair the Dems had 58 Senators in 2009 and still couldn't seem to do jackshit with it, as the Republicans abused the hell out of the filibuster.
EDIT:
(I can assure you, the Right does not bother to ask this question. Ever.)
Ever stop to think that there are a significant number of people, left (not precisely applicable here, but to general sentiments) and right, who vote for their candidate out of spite explicitly because of this sorta statement?
For a moment. Then I give zero fucks because if their primary voting behavior is driven by spite, then they're already a lost cause.
And before some clever Trumpet jumps in with "But aren't you voting against Trump because you hate him?? Checkmate liberal!", there's an important distinction there. I'm voting for Biden because I hate Trump with the fury of a thousand suns (and because I think he has been detrimental to this country in ways that we will be recovering from for decades), *not* because one of his supporters said something mean to me once. I frankly could care less what his supporters say or think because they're fleas on the belly of the beast -- an inconsequential irritant that will soon be looking for a new beast to nest on.