Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Dunamisdeos]

Cool so the warden oopsie daisy removed his cellmate, the one that it's standard practice to keeping a cell with a guy on suicide watch. He's facing no discipline whatsoever.

[Folly]

My understanding is that he was not on suicide watch.
I'm not sure if the watch is just a judgement call, or if there's actually like some sort of specific protocols in place for when a person is supposed to be on that list.

[hector13]

Usually they’re heavily monitored, like being checked on every 30 minutes.

[hector13]

I bet sooner rather than later.

[MrRoboto75]

Cool, it's not like the previous one ended anyway.

[Telgin]

If it does happen in that time frame, the silver lining is that Trump will get the blame for it.  And, honestly, the blame is probably deserved at this point given the whole tariff debacle.  Will it matter for elections?  That's the $64,000 question.

I'm curious what he will say or do in reaction.  I doubt he fully understands it (I don't, really), so any response is likely to be only tangentially related at best.

[smjjames]

I should note that I was mistaken in an earlier post when I claimed that the yield curve inverted. The 5-year yield curve inverted a few months ago.

The 10-year yield curve inverted today.

This generally precedes a recession by 3 to 11 months.

Incidentially, the recession red light alarm went off on the stock market today. Though the drop just seems to be mostly people panicking over the red flag notice for something that apparently has an extremely good track record at predicting recessions.

I'm willing to bet that a no-deal Brexit crash through shockwave will accelerate the timeline for an incoming recession, though October 31st is pretty close to the 3 month mark anyway. Probably the biggest danger at this point is the stock market version of a tantrum spiral.

If it does happen in that time frame, the silver lining is that Trump will get the blame for it.  And, honestly, the blame is probably deserved at this point given the whole tariff debacle.  Will it matter for elections?  That's the $64,000 question.

I'm curious what he will say or do in reaction.  I doubt he fully understands it (I don't, really), so any response is likely to be only tangentially related at best.

If his adminstration handles it badly, they'll definetly get the blame for that. I seriously doubt that you'd be able to pin the cause of a recession on any particular President since it's only one of so many factors, it's the handling of it that generally gets them. Though if they did something that exacerbates it, like say, continuing a trade war in the middle of a recession (talk about between a rock and a hard place (okay, another rock) for Trump), they'll get hit over that for sure.

[Dunamisdeos]

While yes, a recession is caused by many different things happening at the same time, I think that the President who ran a major part of his campaign on being the only one anywhere capable of improving the economy and blaming everyone's ideas but his own for recent recessions should get a specific extra-large portion of blame for the recession that was triggered as a result of his policies.

Guns have lots of moving parts, but the guy who pulled the trigger still gets the blame.

[Egan_BW]

Fingers don't kill people, hammers do!

[PTTG??]

In the worst possible sense, a recession would be good for Democratic policy ideals, in the same way that the Titanic was good for ship safety reformers. This must have been a small consolation for those who happened to be on the Titanic at the time.

[Dunamisdeos]

in the same way Trump would be good for America in the long run in that it will hopefully teach people firsthand about the dangers of his kind of populism.

You're not wrong. Cultures learn these things only after they've come through them.

[smjjames]

While yes, a recession is caused by many different things happening at the same time, I think that the President who ran a major part of his campaign on being the only one anywhere capable of improving the economy and blaming everyone's ideas but his own for recent recessions should get a specific extra-large portion of blame for the recession that was triggered as a result of his policies.

Guns have lots of moving parts, but the guy who pulled the trigger still gets the blame.

Well yeah, insofar as his/her policies making things worse and/or having campaigned on 'Only I can fix it!', they should get blamed that way. However, the cause might not be as clear cut as it was in 2008, instead of one big bubble bursting, it's more like several big to medium sized bubbles bursting amid a global slowdown that's already happening.

in the same way Trump would be good for America in the long run in that it will hopefully teach people firsthand about the dangers of his kind of populism.

You're not wrong. Cultures learn these things only after they've come through them.

I dunno, with the way that the Republicans have been embracing the populism, I don't know if they'd learn the lession anytime soon. The establishment is definetly trying to ride it out and hope it goes away though.

[WealthyRadish]

Cultures learn these things only after they've come through them.

First as tragedy, forty-eighth as farce?

.

[Dunamisdeos]

Cultures learn these things only after they've come through them.

First as tragedy, forty-eighth as farce?

.

Eh, I mean about super racist populist leaders. Recessions are eventually unavoidable (to a certain degree). Cultures tend to take a step back and make (some) social progress after stuff like that, and generally not before.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Neither recessions nor racism are unavoidable. We choose these things for ourselves and the world.