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[Max™]

ShakingBrightPinkHooverTriggered.gif

[Dunamisdeos]

I think a thing as large as a the great depression is allowed to have multiple triggers, though I admit not familiar with the ones involved.

Everyone I've spoken to thinks that while the trade war going on is stupid and pointless, It's not close to a tipping point for a depression yet. Thoughts?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Regardless of source, any recession at this stage will trigger a simultaneous burst of car and student loan bubbles, potentially a second housing collapse, and spiral out of control as rent payments fail.

Trump will, of course, loan out our remaining money to his buddies and himself in order to counteract this. Maybe we'll get to see the national parks be clear-cut, that'd be neat.

[PTTG??]

Bonus: The Democrat that takes office after him will be blamed.

[MrRoboto75]

It's also worth noting that tariffs and currency wars are how we triggered the Great Depression.

That is clearly an enormous oversimplification. I would caution against use of words like "triggered" that imply a single cause for complicated matters like these.

I dunno, I feel like we're currently in that part of the history textbook with a big map with a ton of arrows on it and also on the page is a header labeled "Factors Leading Up To..."

[Egan_BW]

I think that every part of history is that part.

[smjjames]

I think a thing as large as a the great depression is allowed to have multiple triggers, though I admit not familiar with the ones involved.

Everyone I've spoken to thinks that while the trade war going on is stupid and pointless, It's not close to a tipping point for a depression yet. Thoughts?

It’s less the tipping point and more how it’s handled. If the post stock market crash had been handled differently, maybe it would have been softened somewhat. Though weren’t the reforms since then supposed to make market depressions cycles all but gone? A lot of things would have to go horribly catastrophically wrong for things to ever approach Great Depression levels.

Bond yield curve inverted a while ago (among other things), and the weak wage growth plus low unemployment points to high underemployment, meaning the economy is both weak and weaker than what the raw numbers would indicate. I'd call a recession within a year. Probably sooner.

It'd require a trade war escalation to push it into depression territory, though.

What’s the difference between a deep recession (or a ‘Great Recession’, and some did fear slipping into Great Depression levels since it was one of the if not THE worst recessions since that period) and an economic depression though?

As for a recession happening within a year, I might revise that to within 6 months because the looming no-deal Brexit is going to cause a heck of a shock, plus a few months to give the dominos time to cascade. Though it remains to be seen just how bad the shock will be, it could end up being not as bad as everybody thinks or the doom and gloom will end up being a self fulfilling prophecy.

[Reelya]

It's also worth noting that tariffs and currency wars are how we triggered the Great Depression.

That is clearly an enormous oversimplification. I would caution against use of words like "triggered" that imply a single cause for complicated matters like these.

Yep, it's also worth noting that the currency war happened during the 1930s, not in 1929. The US stock market bubble bursting was the trigger, the other stuff was all responses, responses that made things worse maybe, but still responses to things already being fucked.

You don't ditch the gold standard because everything is going fine. It's like if you got gangrene in your leg and you eventually decided that it's time to saw your leg off. You wouldn't say that sawing your leg off what the "trigger" for all your problems.

In the 1930s, global demand plummeted, and then Britain abandoned the gold standard so that they could devalue their currency and increase exports. The tariffs were then by other nations in response to what they saw as some countries "dumping" artificially cheap products in their territories. The root cause wasn't currency valuation or tariffs, it was that global demand crashed following 1929.

[smjjames]

I seriously doubt anybody is going to start a currency or tariff war over Brexit, the U.K. and the EU would be starting from a clean slate (unless a bunch of tariffs auto trigger via requirements or something) and the U.K. in general would be defaulting to WTO defaults I think.

More likely it’ll be something setting off whatever chain reaction that leads to the im/explosion of all that debt overhead and problems that the global economy currently has and collapsing the tenuous equilibrium that exists. A Rube Goldberg pinball machine would probably be a more appropriate visual than a line of dominos.

[SalmonGod]

it's been, wow...almost exactly two years since I left Bay12. I don't know if anyone still remembers me, I mostly hung out in FG&RP. Bay12 was a pretty big part of my life until I left due to, well, mostly posts in this thread and ones like it. I was a sad, shitty reactionary in 2016-2017 after falling down a very dark hole very fast. Honestly, leaving Bay12 and disengaging from the people here probably slowed my recovery a lot. I'm better now. Still not good, but better. I don't think I can undo the things I laughed at and believed, but I'm trying.

I don't mean to clog up this thread or anything, but I mean, it's where I did most of my ick. I'm probably not coming back, but it just felt weird vanishing into thin air after so much...low-level suckiness and trolling. You're good people. I'm sorry.

Just want to say that it's wonderful when someone has the courage to make a post like this.

[Doomblade187]

it's been, wow...almost exactly two years since I left Bay12. I don't know if anyone still remembers me, I mostly hung out in FG&RP. Bay12 was a pretty big part of my life until I left due to, well, mostly posts in this thread and ones like it. I was a sad, shitty reactionary in 2016-2017 after falling down a very dark hole very fast. Honestly, leaving Bay12 and disengaging from the people here probably slowed my recovery a lot. I'm better now. Still not good, but better. I don't think I can undo the things I laughed at and believed, but I'm trying.

I don't mean to clog up this thread or anything, but I mean, it's where I did most of my ick. I'm probably not coming back, but it just felt weird vanishing into thin air after so much...low-level suckiness and trolling. You're good people. I'm sorry.

Just want to say that it's wonderful when someone has the courage to make a post like this.

I concur. You're always welcome back, folks.

Edit: @smjjames, the Trump and Obama administration second term saw a rollback of market regulations.

[Teneb]

it's been, wow...almost exactly two years since I left Bay12. I don't know if anyone still remembers me, I mostly hung out in FG&RP. Bay12 was a pretty big part of my life until I left due to, well, mostly posts in this thread and ones like it. I was a sad, shitty reactionary in 2016-2017 after falling down a very dark hole very fast. Honestly, leaving Bay12 and disengaging from the people here probably slowed my recovery a lot. I'm better now. Still not good, but better. I don't think I can undo the things I laughed at and believed, but I'm trying.

I don't mean to clog up this thread or anything, but I mean, it's where I did most of my ick. I'm probably not coming back, but it just felt weird vanishing into thin air after so much...low-level suckiness and trolling. You're good people. I'm sorry.

Just want to say that it's wonderful when someone has the courage to make a post like this.

I concur. You're always welcome back, folks.

Edit: @smjjames, the Trump and Obama administration second term saw a rollback of market regulations.

For whatever reason I cannot see the original post.

EDIT: Nevermind, it's two pages back and SMF is being crappy again.

[Iduno]

It's also worth noting that tariffs and currency wars are how we triggered the Great Depression.

That is clearly an enormous oversimplification. I would caution against use of words like "triggered" that imply a single cause for complicated matters like these.

I dunno, I feel like we're currently in that part of the history textbook with a big map with a ton of arrows on it and also on the page is a header labeled "Factors Leading Up To..."

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2012/06/21/how-texas-inflicts-bad-textbooks-on-us/

[smjjames]

it's been, wow...almost exactly two years since I left Bay12. I don't know if anyone still remembers me, I mostly hung out in FG&RP. Bay12 was a pretty big part of my life until I left due to, well, mostly posts in this thread and ones like it. I was a sad, shitty reactionary in 2016-2017 after falling down a very dark hole very fast. Honestly, leaving Bay12 and disengaging from the people here probably slowed my recovery a lot. I'm better now. Still not good, but better. I don't think I can undo the things I laughed at and believed, but I'm trying.

I don't mean to clog up this thread or anything, but I mean, it's where I did most of my ick. I'm probably not coming back, but it just felt weird vanishing into thin air after so much...low-level suckiness and trolling. You're good people. I'm sorry.

Just want to say that it's wonderful when someone has the courage to make a post like this.

I concur. You're always welcome back, folks.

Edit: @smjjames, the Trump and Obama administration second term saw a rollback of market regulations.

I meant the ones that were in response to the Great Depression. Just about the entire world coming off the gold standard probably helped though.

[da_nang]

Jeffrey Epstein Death: 2 Guards Slept Through Checks and Falsified Records

Of course they did.