China won’t start a naval war with America because they have far more to lose than they have to gain and they would absolutely not have the capacity to prosecute it in any meaningful capacity.
America won’t start a naval war with China because they have nearly nothing to gain from it, and a lot to lose economically.
I really wouldn’t overestimate the geopolitical impact of the Chinese Navy; they have a role in nearby sea conflicts but pose no threat to American interests or operations.
China's consolidation of the South China Seas has seen Chinese diesel submarines gain the capacity to enter the Pacific from Chinese ports without detection by American units, this in turn allows China to station nuclear capable submarines on the American west coast; it's probably already been done in some capacity. The greater China's naval capacities increase, the further America loses the capability to challenge China anywhere in the world with military force. Conversely, once it is certain that the South China Seas will be covered in radar towers and submarine listening arrays, American or US-allied ships will find it increasingly impossible to station military units in the South China Seas without China's permission. Despite the UN ruling China's claim as illegal and the island bases as illegal, who's to say after 50 years of effective control it won't be long before what is actual will become what is legal? Consider for example
US planes being ordered to leave or Chinese warships playing chicken. Here is a useful excerpt from China's studies of the Falklands War, the last naval war in contemporary history:
The Chinese have concluded, according to the SSI, that Argentina failed to conduct an "accurate pre-conflict strategic assessment." Indeed, the junta underestimated British resolve. Chinese war planners intend to avoid that mistake. However, the Argentines were tasked with "preventing an outside power from interfering in a territorial dispute" -- a direct analog to Taiwan, in Beijing's estimate.
The Chinese believe Argentina failed to attack Britain's biggest weakness: its long sea and air supply line. The Argentines did not dramatically reinforce their ground units on the islands, nor did they upgrade island airfields to handle high-performance jets. Their aerial refueling capabilities were limited. As a result, Britain's jump jet carriers provided just enough air power to give the fleet a protective "bubble."
China intends to pierce any adversary's protective "bubble." Beijing has ballistic missiles designed to suppress Taiwan's airfields and conceivably U.S. bases on Guam. China intends to triple its arsenal of land-based maritime strike aircraft; robust air refueling capabilities increases their range. China is building more diesel and nuclear submarines, to attack supply ships and -- yes -- super-carriers. Trust that any Chinese invasion force successfully seizing an island will receive heavy ground, air and air defense reinforcements with alacrity. And never say never.
China is not Argentina.
It is also far more likely than you'd think, though neither US nor China would desire war, Xi Jinping's aggressive expansion in the South China Seas & his insistence that China will not withdraw from a single inch of their reef bases means a collision of some sort with the US is unavoidable. Much as in the Great War, no one wanted it, but everyone was forced into it. If there is to be a US-China naval war, it will be because a series of events and contingencies forced the two powers into conflict, not because either willed it. Likewise the lessons they learned from the Falklands was not on how to conduct an expedition against the USA, but rather how to deny any American expedition to China.
A centerpiece of this strategy is an arsenal of high-speed ballistic missiles designed to strike moving ships. The latest versions, the DF-21D and, since 2016, the DF-26, are popularly known as “carrier killers,” since they can threaten the most powerful vessels in the American fleet long before they get close to China.
The DF-26, which made its debut in a military parade in Beijing in 2015 and was tested in the Bohai Sea last year, has a range that would allow it to menace ships and bases as far away as Guam, according to the latest Pentagon report on the Chinese military, released this month. These missiles are almost impossible to detect and intercept, and are directed at moving targets by an increasingly sophisticated Chinese network of radar and satellites.
China announced in April that the DF-26 had entered service. State television showed rocket launchers carrying 22 of them, though the number deployed now is unknown. A brigade equipped with them is reported to be based in Henan Province, in central China.
Such missiles pose a particular challenge to American commanders because neutralizing them might require an attack deep inside Chinese territory, which would be a major escalation.
The American Navy has never faced such a threat before, the Congressional Research Office warned in a report in May, adding that some analysts consider the missiles “game changing.”
[...]
To prevail in these waters, according to officials and analysts who scrutinize Chinese military developments, China does not need a military that can defeat the United States outright but merely one that can make intervention in the region too costly for Washington to contemplate. Many analysts say Beijing has already achieved that goal.
These missiles sting more than excocets, while the reefs have been
turned into fortified airbases for fighter craft in accordance with their military manuals on how Argentina lost the Falklands War. It would be foolish to expect that the Chinese would conduct the war the same way the Americans would.
In an excoriating assessment of China’s increasingly muscular posture in the region, Harry Harris said Beijing’s “intent is crystal clear” to dominate the South China Sea and that its military might could soon rival American power “across almost every domain”.
Harris, soon to retire as the head of US Pacific Command in Hawaii, told the House armed services committee, the US and its allies should be wary of Beijing’s military expansionism in the region, and condemned China’s foreign influence operations, predatory economic behaviour and coercion of regional neighbours.
“China’s intent is crystal clear. We ignore it at our peril,” he said. “I’m concerned China will now work to undermine the international rules-based order.”
The US motive is clear, and this goes beyond Trump's China rivalry & even Obama's Pacific Pivot, with the US State Department providing a clear and consistent warning that as time goes on, the strength disparity between China and the USA will only decrease. If a naval war then is inevitable, the best time to strike is yesterday, the second best today, and in future never. Xi Jinping cannot stop consolidating the SCS without being seen to back down against US naval power in front of the Chinese people. Too much focus is on the individual personality of US Presidents, when whether it was Obama, Clinton or Trump, the state department would have advised them all the same. It's the perfect spicy meatball
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