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[Trekkin]

Eh, your opinion is objectively wrong, but believe whatever you want

Not going to bother proving it though

[misko27]

It was a blue wave, by the way.

Just because Nate Silver said it doesn't make it true, and you certainly won't convince the median voter by saying so. Actually, articles like that will probably make voter exhaustion worse.

I don't think the median voter reads FiveThirtyEight though.

[Maximum Spin]

I don't think the median voter reads FiveThirtyEight though.

Very true, which is why I'm saying don't go spreading it around instead of yelling at Nate Silver instead

[SalmonGod]

So ... is this what the frothing vitriol from even mentioning moderates is actually about?

Can you quote the frothing vitriol?

[misko27]

I don't think the median voter reads FiveThirtyEight though.

Very true, which is why I'm saying don't go spreading it around instead of yelling at Nate Silver instead

I don't think this thread is the median voter either. 

[Maximum Spin]

I mean, it won't convince anyone because people already concluded "meh" by 10 PM and we all know that no one ever dares change their conclusions about events ever.

Exactly.

What makes him wrong, in turn, is that "Blue Wave" isn't a specific number of seats flipped or votes rocked, but a feeling people expected to have and then didn't.

[wobbly]

I mean, it won't convince anyone because people already concluded "meh" by 10 PM and we all know that no one ever dares change their conclusions about events ever.

Exactly.

What makes him wrong, in turn, is that "Blue Wave" isn't a specific number of seats flipped or votes rocked, but a feeling people expected to have and then didn't.

Was it? Serious question from an outsider paying half-attention. The "Blue Wave" in the media I was reading was quite specifically about seats flipping. About Democrats having actual numbers in government to control the agenda, rather then some wishy-washy sense.

[Maximum Spin]

Was it? Serious question from an outsider paying half-attention. The "Blue Wave" in the media I was reading was quite specifically about seats flipping. About Democrats having actual numbers in government to control the agenda, rather then some wishy-washy sense.

It turned into a hype thing in many circles. Even though seats were flipped, on the ground one can see that many people formed (wildly unreasonable) expectations that were not met, and now the whole nation has this distinctive quasi-post-premature-ejaculation feeling of "what, that's it?" which can't be fixed by quoting numbers.

Course, it helps that the Democrats don't actually have the numbers in the government to control the agenda now. But of course that was never realistic to begin with.

ETA:

Democrats performed almost exactly to expectations, which were for a "blue wave." If people were expecting some fantastical shit like Democrats taking the Senate, their disappointment doesn't mean that a "blue wave" never happened- it just means that people are wrong about presuming that we're bad at predicting things. We're not.

If you can't tell why the failure to meet the hype means that the hyped-for thing never happened, I don't know what to tell you. It's exactly like in video games, you certainly must understand hype in video games, right? Like, off the top of my head, No Man's Sky performed exactly to reasonable expectations, but that didn't save it.

[MorleyDev]

I mean, as an outside observer taking the House and managing to fight the Senate to what was basically a standstill seems to be pretty good?

It looks like they lost at most one seat in the Senate, depending on if Florida ever stops Floridaing, despite having what...3 times the seats up for the taking compared to what the Republicans had to focus on preserving?

[Maximum Spin]

I mean, as an outside observer taking the House and managing to fight the Senate to basically a standstill  seems to be pretty good? It looks like they lost at most one seat in the Senate, depending on if Florida ever stops Floridaing, despite having what...3 times their seats up for the taking compared to what the Republicans had to focus on preserving?

Well, it's a little more complicated than that from the perspective that the point is to produce policy outcomes, since the Dems have essentially no power to actually accomplish anything, and they're now looking forward to the massive double bind of impeachment being a plausible possibility. But yes, on the simple numbers game they did fine. The problem is that on the ground I and others are seeing massive disillusionment because people were somehow convinced to expect the moon.

So it is very much true that, to an outside observer, everything should be fine.

[RedKing]

Democrats performed almost exactly to expectations, which were for a "blue wave." If people were expecting some fantastical shit like Democrats taking the Senate, their disappointment doesn't mean that a "blue wave" never happened- it just means that people are wrong about presuming that we're bad at predicting things. We're not.

If you can't tell why the failure to meet the hype means that the hyped-for thing never happened, I don't know what to tell you. It's exactly like in video games, you certainly must understand hype in video games, right? Like, off the top of my head, No Man's Sky performed exactly to reasonable expectations, but that didn't save it.

Umm, no. By your analogy, you're arguing that because No Man's Sky didn't meet the hype, it didn't exist. And that any articles pointing out that it did in fact exist are bad because they're just going to piss off gamers.

To paraphrase what others have said, if some Democrats were expecting to sweep Congress and impeach Trump on Wednesday, that's their fault for not paying attention. It was clear for weeks, if not months, ahead of the election that a Senate flip was not going to happen.

I think any disillusionment was that in the immediate aftermath, it looked like the Senate was going to be a major loss, tilting as much as 55-45. But then Tester hung on in Montana, Rosen won in Nevada, Sinema won in Arizona, the Nelson-Scott race is stuck in recounts, and the Mississippi special election is going to a runoff and the Republican candidate just shoved her own foot so far into her mouth she's shitting stillettos. Now you're looking at 53-47 as worst case, with a reasonable possibility of winding up 51-49, which would be a moral victory for Democrats, because it basically erases any counter-narrative that it was a "good night" for Republicans.

[Maximum Spin]

Is it "on the ground" or is it just the loudest people on Twitter (and the usual left-to-far-left media outlets)?

Honest question, here; not trying to be sarcastic.

On the ground. I'm not even on Twitter, I'm talking about actual humans.

Umm, no. By your analogy, you're arguing that because No Man's Sky didn't meet the hype, it didn't exist.

...Noooooo, I'm saying that because No Man's Sky didn't meet the hype, the hyped-up imaginary version of No Man's Sky doesn't exist. Which it doesn't.

[Egan_BW]

Umm, no. By your analogy, you're arguing that because No Man's Sky didn't meet the hype, it didn't exist. And that any articles pointing out that it did in fact exist are bad because they're just going to piss off gamers.

No no no. Norman's Sky being released at all is just the election happening. Norman's Sky being good is the so called blue wave. Whether you think Norman's Sky is good or not depends on how hyped you were for Norman's Sky, hense people disagree on whether the blue wave happened or not, mostly depending on if said people remember being hyped up for Spore.
If Norman's Sky were delayed or just wasn't released, people would be upset for entirely different, much more legitimate reasons. Thankfully this did not happen.

Your disagreement with Max here is between listening to the idiots who were disappointed because they're the majority of people who care, or disregarding the people who are disappointed because they're idiots who never played Spore.

[RedKing]

I see where you're coming from, but I still disagree. If people get unreasonably hype about a thing, then haz a sad when the thing isn't hype, even though the thing is demonstrably what it was *reasonably* expected to be, that just means those people are lolnoobs.

Nate Silver is not a lolnoob.

[Maximum Spin]

Alright, to help suss out the demographics, for those you're referring to, where would you put them on the spectrum of left<->center, in terms of where they get their information? Also, how active they are in keeping up with politics?

I'm not trying to contradict you or anything; I'm trying to work out exactly what demographic is being influenced by the prevailing media/"loud" progressive narrative.

Uh, kind of the middle — that is, not "center", but "in the middle of left and center"; mainstream left-leaning news. Not very active in keeping up with politics, I'd judge, pretty much the demographic you're supposed to get the vote out to. Which I figure is probably the problem, since they were told "this could be the most important election of your lifetime!" and everyone tried to get them out the vote, and then the result was just "as expected" and everything didn't change.

I see where you're coming from, but I still disagree. If people get unreasonably hype about a thing, then haz a sad when the thing isn't hype, even though the thing is demonstrably what it was *reasonably* expected to be, that just means those people are lolnoobs.

I mean that's fine but you're still gonna have trouble getting the "lolnoobs" to come back next time when you're looking Four More Years down the barrel


ETA: To elaborate further, my original point was that saying "Hey, the blue wave worked out fine, look at all the gains we made in even reaching gridlock in the first place!" when all they see is a cloud of vague disappointment only reinforces the idea they already had that their votes can't "change anything" (because the change they expect is honestly insane), and it's probably better in the long run to downplay it and just say "well, that sucked, hey, it's a midterm, can't have everything, see you again in two years" and hope they cheer up by then.