"DID YOU JUST...
...Ignore the possibility of droughts caused by changing weather patterns worsened by climste change?
When they're presented as a broad and widening thing? Fuck yes I did, it is lying to the layman and it is the worst sin in science. Ice ages are arid, deserts expanded vastly, the sahara is a remnant of the glacial deserts, you want to see what happens when you have a massive ice sheet, look at Antarctica, the largest desert on the planet, literal fucktons of water right there, hard as rock, dry as stone.
To assume that THIS point in time is when we reach the apex of aridity and that it somehow drops off if we enter a warmer climate AND a colder climate is absurd just from a philosophical standpoint, nevermind the physical implausibilities required to support this idea. Somehow we're going to melt the last ice caps and simultaneously turn half the planet into deserts?
I get it, burning oil is shitty, I love cars but we have better things to do with petroleum anyways, and burning lighter distillates of it isn't one of them. Moving away from oil and coal and gas is important, but I can't help but think honesty in the presentation of science is important as well. A big part of that is being able to say "I don't know" or better yet "I'm not certain, but if X holds, then Y following is supported by Z models for these reasons with these assumptions as can be found in blah blah blah" which will probably end up with your audience having their eyes glaze over sadly. I always liked reading through this stuff, but I had to swear off arguing about it, too much time I could have been doing something fun like hurting myself with woodworking tools or picking my nose. I'll gladly provide links to read through and make your own inferences from if you're interested, with the note that you shouldn't believe me, as I do not have perfect information about the future or the past, nor does anyone else. Asking questions and hunting for answers is always a noble pursuit.
Changes in the water cycle are projected to occur in a warming climate (TFE.1, Figure 3, see also TS 4.6, TS 5.6, Annex I). Global-scale precipitation is projected to gradually increase in the 21st century. The precipitation increase is projected to be much smaller (about 2% K–1) than the rate of lower tropospheric water vapour increase (about 7% K–1), due to global energetic constraints. Changes of average precipitation in a much warmer world will not be uniform, with some regions experiencing increases, and others with decreases or not much change at all. The high latitude land masses are likely to experience greater amounts of precipitation due to the additional water carrying capacity of the warmer troposphere. Many mid-latitude and subtropical arid and semi-arid regions will likely experience less precipitation. The largest precipitation changes over northern Eurasia and North America are projected to occur during the winter. {12.4.5, Annex I}
Italics theirs, unnecessarily vague wording which could suggest a majority of regions bolded by me, link here:
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_TS_FINAL.pdf
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Topic: AmeriPol thread (Read 4464042 times)