Ok, getting back to the horse race, now coming into the final eight-day stretch. Last time, we covered gubernatorial races (which, it should be noted, have tightened further in many races -- FL is now a toss-up, SD is a toss-up, Alaska is now a closer race, etc.)
Now let's turn to the Senate.
First, a bit of refresher for our non-American friends, since the Senate composition can be a bit confusing. There are 100 Senate seats, two from each state regardless of population. Senators are elected for six-year terms. These are then organized into three "classes", which means 1/3 of the Senate is up for election every two years. Typically, this means a given state will have Senator 1, Senator 2, and then a "bye" election in successive electoral cycles. For instance, here in NC, it's our "bye" election with neither Senator on the ballot. But not always -- Minnesota and Mississippi are voting for both of their Senate seats in this election.
Here are the 33 Senate Seats on the ballot this cycle:
Arizona -- Jeff Flake (R), retiring
California -- Dianne Feinstein (D)
Connecticut -- Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware -- Tom Carper (D)
Florida -- Bill Nelson (D)
Hawaii -- Mazie Hirono (D)
Indiana -- Joe Donnelly (D)
Maine -- Angus King (I)
Maryland -- Ben Cardin (D)
Massachusetts -- Elizabeth Warren (D)
Michigan -- Debbie Stabenow (D)
Minnesota1 -- Amy Klobuchar (D)
Minnesota2 -- Tina Smith (D)
Mississippi1 -- Roger Wicker (R)
Mississippi2 -- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Missouri -- Claire McCaskill (D)
Montana -- Jon Tester (D)
Nebraska -- Deb Fischer (R)
Nevada -- Dean Heller (R)
New Jersey -- Bob Menendez (D)
New Mexico -- Martin Heinrich (D)
New York -- Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
North Dakota -- Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Ohio -- Sherrod Brown (D)
Pennsylvania -- Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Rhode Island -- Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Tennessee -- Bob Corker (R), retiring
Texas -- Ted "Zodiac Killer" Cruz (R)
Utah -- Orrin Hatch (R), retiring
Vermont -- Bernie Sanders (I)
Virginia -- Tim Kaine (D)
Washington -- Maria Cantwell (D)
West Virginia -- Joe Manchin (D*)
Wisconsin -- Tammy Baldwin (D)
Wyoming -- John Barrasso (R)
A quick glance at the list shows the biggest problem for Democrats -- they've got way too much skin in the game (24 seats plus 2 Independent allies), while the Republicans have only 9 in play. And some of those were never going to be "in play", such as Mississippi, Utah and Wyoming.
And remember, the current Senate balance (including Angus King and Bernie Sanders as Democrats, since that's how they typically vote) is 51-49. To take control, Democrats would have to defend all 24 seats plus pick up two Republican seats (since Mike Pence breaks a 50-50 tie). At this point, FiveThirtyEight gives the Dems less than an 18% chance of that happening.
There's no point in discussing the safe races. While Senate seats can't be gerrymandered the way House races are, there are definitely states where the partisan balance swings hard enough that there was never really a race.
So let's look at the races currently rated "lean" or "toss-up" (plus a few more that are just interesting on their own merits).
Incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill won 55-45 in 2012. Missouri is one of those purplish-red Midwestern states where even the Democrats are going to be moderates at best, and McCaskill is no exception. She's up against state Attorney General Josh Hawley (R). Hawley won an unenthusiastic 58% of the primary vote, against a large field of contenders that split the rest of the Republican vote into single-digits. Hawley is a fairly bog-standard Republican, though as his Senate campaign began to ramp up, he seems to have veered somewhat more to the right. He's also notable for a scenario earlier this year where he was tasked with investigating the sitting Republican governor of Missouri on charges of blackmail, misuse of campaign funds, and violations of state transparency laws, to the point where the Governor attempted to get a restraining order against his own Attorney General to prevent investigation. The Governor eventually resigned, and so Hawley has some goodwill within the state for uncovering corruption.
McCaskill has outraised Hawley by 3.5:1 and outspent him by nearly 4.5:1, but polls still show the race within margin of error in most polls, but typically showing Hawley with a slight lead. He's been beating up McCaskill over her vote against Brett Kavanaugh, while she's been attacking Hawley for being one of the state attorneys general who sued to block the ACA.
One of the few (maybe the only) Republican seats that's truly vulnerable this cycle. Incumbent Dean Heller (R), a pro-business social moderate Republican is facing Congresswoman Jacky Rosen (D). Heller has incurred Trump's disfavor on previous occasions, including an infamous case where Trump said that if the Senate vote to kill the ACA failed, Heller would lose his Senate seat. (The vote failed.)
Trump has since expressed a newfound love for Heller, disparaging his opponent as "Wacky Jacky". Heller has faced some significant blowback for his support of Brett Kavanaugh, even if it was lukewarm support. The ACA has also been a major issue in this race -- Rosen voted against attempts to repeal it in the House, while Heller voted to repeal. Heller is caught in the awkward position of having to show some kind of support for healthcare reform (Nevada's service industry is overwhelmingly blue-collar folks that need the ACA badly) but also having to not alienate the ranchers and dust farmers that make up everything in Nevada outside of Las Vegas.
Rosen has outraised Heller 1.3:1 and outspent him 1.3:1, leaving them on roughly equal ground with eight days remaining. Polls have been very tight but seem to be showing a very tiny shift towards Heller in the last month.
Incumbent Jeff Flake (R) is retiring, and I'm sure Trump is dancing on his political grave. Vying to fill his seat are two of Arizona's Congresswomen, Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R). No matter who wins, Arizona will be electing its first female Senator.
McSally won her primary by virtue of former Sheriff (and pardoned felon) Joe Arpaio and state Senator Kelli Ward splitting the Trumpian vote, with each trying to outcrazy the other. She's a former Air Force combat pilot, flying an A-10 during the Iraq War, actually the *first* female combat pilot once the restriction was lifted. Formerly a moderate Republican, she (like Hawley in Missouri) has begun running to the right and aligning with Trump (whom she did not support in 2016). For his part, Trump forgot all about his buddy Joe Arpaio after he lost and has endorsed McSally repeatedly.
Sinema is a centrist Democrat. She's also openly bisexual and atheist, a rarity among Congress.
Sinema has outraised McSally 4:3 and outspent her 16:9. With polls close but beginning to show a bit of daylight for Sinema, I wouldn't be surprised to see McSally use her advantage in remaining dollars to blitz the airwaves in the last week.
Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (D) is running against incumbent Governor Rick Scott (R). Scott's tenure was up for election anyways and he was term-limited, so why not make the jump to Congress, right?
Scott has been a polarizing figure in his eight years in office as Governor, but he's also improved his image a bit in the last couple of years by actually showing some capacity as a human being in the wake of tragedies such as Hurricanes Irma and Michael and the Parkland shooting.
Nelson is a relatively unknown (on the national stage) centrist Democrat, despite having held the seat for 16 years.
While a number of other Republican candidates have been running towards Trump, Scott appears to be going the other way. He was a vocal supporter of Trump in 2016, and now avoids mentioning him or criticizes some of the President's rhetoric. Whether this reflects a genuine change of heart or a cynical bid to win crossover support in an extremely swing state is left to the reader.
Top issues in this race, instead of Kavanaugh and Obamacare, are actually far more pertinent to Floridians' recent experiences: gun control and climate change.
After the Parkland shooting, Gov. Scott actually got the Florida legislature to tighten gun laws in Florida, which was impressive in its own right. Nelson has criticized the response as being "the bare minimum".
Nelson is getting much more traction, it seems, around the fact that Scott's administration took a great deal of effort to avoid mentioning or discussing climate change in its projections or policy decisions. And now Florida has been hit by two major hurricanes in the last two years (which honestly isn't that unusual) and is contending with a massive bloom of red tide algae which is devastating the fishing and tourism industries.
Scott has outraised Nelson 2:1, though it should be pointed out that in this case that means $54.7 million to $25.1 million. This race has become one of the most expensive Senate races in the country. He's outspent him by an even larger margin, leaving Scott with only $2 million in the bank as of 9/30, whereas Nelson had four times that. Polls have been super tight, but there are no real 3rd party candidates to speak of.
Incumbent Senator Joe Donnelly (D) is in a fight for this political life. Donnelly, a centrist Democrat, won his seat in 2012 with just 50.04% of the vote in a state that could best be described as "light red with notes of meth and despair". His opponent Mike Braun (R) defeated two establishment Republicans in the primary and appears to be of the Tea Party variety.
Outsourcing/trade has been a major issue, as both candidates have been found guilty of hypocrisy regarding their stances on NAFTA and outsourcing.
Donnelly has been anti-NAFTA and attacked Carrier Corp. for moving jobs to Mexico, but it was found that Donnelly's brother owns a company (of which Donnelly himself was a paid board member) which used Mexican labor for assembly. The NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) even hired a mariachi band to play a Donnelly campaign stop to try and link Donnelly to Mexico in voter's minds (classy!).
For his part, one of Braun's companies (of aftermarket accessories for off-road driving) was found to be selling Chinese-made parts, to which he protested ignorance and basically just said "Hey, I just sell stuff, I don't ask where they get it from".
Fundraising has been virtually identical, with Braun outspending Donnelly 6:5, leaving Donnelly with a 4:1 advantage in remaining warchest as of 9/30.
Polls have been extremely tight, and the Libertarian candidate (polling around 6%) could have an impact on the outcome. Honestly, I feel like if Indiana had a "None of the above" option, it would win in a landslide.
Posting this while only about 60% complete -- need to take a break but don't want to lose what I've done so far. Will come back later today and finish the last four.
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