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[Dunamisdeos]

He'll just say it was the wrong guy again.

[RedKing]

There's one thing that could really pay off for Democrats in November: lots of GOP people are going to be writing off the poll lead as Fake News, therefore they're less likely to be motivated to get out on polling day.

Yes, but they also expect the "deep state" to try and rig the election, and millions of illegal immigrants to stuff the ballot box and Hillary to something something uranium child sex emails. And as it gets closer to November, you're going to see Trump and other Republicans explicitly use these kind of ideas to drum up GOP turnout.

[RedKing]

... I mean, far as I can recall it's just a ratio thing. One over, five under, 1:5 odds. You can do the dots horizontal. Something like that, anyway.

Nope. Over/under is a bet on the total combined score of a game. So, for instance in football, a reasonable over/under bet might be 50. You're betting either the total is under 50 (you think it's going to be a low-score, defensive game) or over 50 (for instance, two strong, pass-happy offenses matched up against lackluster secondaries).

A 28-24 final score in this example would pay out all the Over bets and collect all the Under bets.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

EDIT: Whelan may have made things much more dicey for Kavanaugh. It's still just a theory, but if someone can find that Whelan was doing this kind of hack job deflection attempt at the behest of someone else in Congressional or WH circles...yeah.

[Kagus]

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2018/09/china-summons-ambassador-military-sanctions-180922154330153.html

So, imposing sanctions on China's military seems like kind of a bad idea if you don't have a lot of international support... But politics really isn't my field.

[Frumple]

I'unno, considering that isn't due to the bugshite trade war insanity there might actually be international support this time?

... or would be if it weren't for the bugshite trade war insanity and all the other stuff. Eh.

[sluissa]

Come on China, just buy your Russian weapons through an intermediary and you can avoid all this trouble. It's not like you haven't done it before.

[smjjames]

As Doge would say: 24 hours! Much drama! Much action! Muchness!

On the Kavanaugh stuff, theres been an additional accusation during his college years, and Avenatti is representing a woman who has some other allegations and will speak of them within 48 hours. Reactions and going ons on both sides are as you might expect, and the Republicans are dismissing it as Democrat lies. Ford is going to be talking with the Senate Judicial committee on Thursday.

Then theres the new drama with Rosenstein with him apparently offering a resignation or something, but things are unclear atm. Trump has said that he'll talk with Rosenstein on Thursday after he gets back from various UN general assembly stuff he is doing atm. So, the drama on that one is on hold.

[PTTG??]

Is there a shortage of stooges? Because I don't get why the Republicans want this particular stooge. I really don't get why they're betting the farm on this guy -- especially since it would only stoke their base if the Republicans lost a fight because of something they could spin as an attack by Social Justice Wizards.

[Frumple]

They can't really do anything about it, exactly. Only trump and k-whatever can withdraw willingly; congress republicans would have to actually vote against him to get another option, which would be political suicide for a lot of them. And neither two will do that, so spineless sexual assault excusing fucks the GOP are are throwing what they can behind the now-older drunken frat boy.

To some degree, I don't know how much the GOP does want the guy, especially now. Unfortunately for them, trump wants him 'cause k-whatever made mouth noises that sounded to trump like criminal immunity and their screamingest base only cares about "winning", and that's functionally all that matters.

[smjjames]

They can only lose two Senators though in the floor vote and Senators Collins and Murkowski are exerting some pressure, and are under pressure themselves.

[Lord Shonus]

They can't really do anything about it, exactly. Only trump and k-whatever can withdraw willingly; congress republicans would have to actually vote against him to get another option, which would be political suicide for a lot of them. And neither two will do that, so spineless sexual assault excusing fucks the GOP are are throwing what they can behind the now-older drunken frat boy.

To some degree, I don't know how much the GOP does want the guy, especially now. Unfortunately for them, trump wants him 'cause k-whatever made mouth noises that sounded to trump like criminal immunity and their screamingest base only cares about "winning", and that's functionally all that matters.

More importantly, the election is only a month(ish) away. There's no practical way that Trump can pick a second nominee and get said nominee through before the election. Taking an open Supreme Court slot into the midterms is very dangerous to both sides, but is a much bigger risk for the GOP. Right now, polling suggests that the Democrats have an excellent chance of taking the House of Representatives, but a fairly poor chance of taking the Senate due to the specific races that are pending. If the Democrats pick the slot for a rallying point, then there is a small but very real chance that they can turn some "leaning R" races into "leaning D" ones, and this could lead to the GOP losing control of both Houses instead of just one. The risk is smaller for the Dems, because a GOP rally would just turn an existing Senate advantage further into the GOP camp.

[Reelya]

What's this thing I saw today?

Democrat David Brill, running for an Arizona Congress position, managed to make an advert where he got 6 family members of his Republican rival to denounce their own kin and tell people to vote for David Brill instead.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZD-gIYEJpk

[scriver]

Haaaah. I gotta see that.

edit: Just got back and watched it. Really makes you wonder what kind of a man that guy is.

[hector13]

T’be fair, they had already denounced him last year for something or other in a letter, so not that big a deal.

[sluissa]

Pod Save America had an interesting take on why Kavanaugh is important.

It's not that there aren't other qualified candidates. But despite everything, the core political base the republicans are depending on are still very much behind him. Something like 80% of republicans with the "Trump Supporters" number being even higher.

Combine that with the fact that republicans have had so few wins, a loss here would be devastating for the midterms. A lot of reluctant trump supporters are willing to hold their nose if they get long term wins out of it like a hard right supreme court nominee. A lot of congress critters have bet everything on the Trump bandwagon. If they can't all work together to make Trump look like he's making progress, winning some key battles, some republicans are going to start wondering why they're holding their nose over all these other issues. Would mean bad things in 2020, something like another Tea Party internal revolution for the party in the middle of a term where they're likely to be at very low popularity and can't afford infighting and incumbent primary challenges.

Basically, they're feeling backed into a corner. Or more aptly, have painted themselves into a corner.

Now my take on that is that I feel like that's stretching things a bit as far as how much you can predict the mindset of politicians, and possibly giving them too much credit. But it's a very possible explanation.