https://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/01/health/students-mock-presidential-election-results/index.htmlThis article, right before election day, at the start notes that students did some polling analysis, came to the conclusion that Clinton had a 97% chance of victory. Well, that clearly didn't work out but it's neither here nor there. Polling analysis is a different topic.
Then there's a headline "Student mock election has perfect record". Which is nice, but since it follows the bit where you just read about Clinton having a 97% chance of victory, if you stopped reading right there, you'd be pretty mislead. Whereas the students used polling analysis to predict a 97% chance of victory for Clinton, less than 1 in 3 students actually expressed a preference to vote for Clinton.
In the next bit, we get into the actual student votes cast in the mock election itself. 47.1% voted for Trump, 32.6% voted for Clinton, and 20% for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. While that's good news for Libertarians and Green votes, it's not so great for the Democrats. So if the mock election does in fact have the
perfect record the article claimed, then they should have been calling it for Trump at that point, not leading with analysis that Clinton was a shoe-in.
There was another mock election that showed different results, so the article went with that one as being indicative and the pro-Trump one as being the outlier. However, the spread in the pro-Clinton one was much smaller, 6%, vs 15% in the pro-Trump one. Also exit polls even in the pro-Clinton poll reveal "terrorism" as being by far the #1 issue cited by the teens as their top issue.
However, the big difference is that the pro-Trump poll was of 100,000 highschoolers only, but the pro-Clinton one was of 300,000 grade school / middle school and highschool students. i.e. if
highschoolers specifically, were more pro-Trump, and they're the exact ones we'd be extending the vote to, then what elementary school kids think would seem to be irrelevant.
So, perhaps young voters aren't in fact a shoe-in for the Democrats, young voters are strongly influenced by whatever is going on at that moment. They seem to have supported Trump with a far bigger lead than the mainstream voters did, after all. Sure, people don't magically get better judgement at 18, but they develop more
overall judgement as they get older, to some limit. The question is then
how much less informed is a typical 18 year old vs e.g. a 25 year old, is it valuable to skew things more in that direction by adding in 16 and 17 year olds? Those ages are overlooked now, but they'd be targets for political polarization if we allow that. The question is whether a voice is worth extending partisan politics to totally consume the high-school years the way it does college and beyond.