Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[smjjames]

At about 62% in, Lamb has about a 7k lead on Saccone, not a huge lead, but a lead nontheless.

What's the Pennsylvania threshold for recount? 87% in and Lamb is at 50.4%, Saccone at 49%

[smjjames]

0.6% margin, that's gotta be extremely close to the recount margin. BTW, this district most likely won't even exist in it's current shape in November, so, this whole fuss is kind of for nothing.

[misko27]

It's gonna be one of those elections, for sure. Lamb still in the lead, dancing on a knife's edge.

0.6% margin, that's gotta be extremely close to the recount margin. BTW, this district most likely won't even exist in it's current shape in November, so, this whole fuss is kind of for nothing.

It's mostly a question of morale and oddsmaking for 2018 General. This district voted for Trump +20, if it goes for Lamb it's a bad sign for Republicans (although regardless of whether or not he goes over the finish line, this is kind-of a bad sign). But if Lamb goes over the finish line it'll energize democrats nationally; they've chased a lot of special elections in red states, but they've both done really in all of them (better than expected, anyway), but also haven't won any of them. Actually winning one would be nice, I'm sure.

[Frumple]

Also november's better than half a year away at this point. Ain't that biggest deal in the world by a long shot, but so far as fuss goes it's probably worth a good bit more than nothin' much.

[smjjames]

It'll be funny in a schadenfreude way if this goes exactly 50/50....

Also, they have won several special elections in red states, at least one federal level one, but the great majority are state level and lower. Have you been under a concrete rock? (kidding, lol)

edit: 0.4% margin with 96% in. Within recount range I'm pretty sure.

[misko27]

I mean in the House. I'm not aware of any special elections Democrats have won in the house, and since they are VERY unlikely to win the Senate in November, House is what matters.

[smjjames]

In the House, yeah, I don't think they have.

Now it's either a 0.2 or 0.3% margin. Vox has the percentage slightly different but the numbers are the same. This is literally within rounding error range. edit: now it's 0.3 or 0.4%. If there isn't an automatic recount, both sides are within reason to call for a recount.

And yeah, for the Senate, I'd consider it a victory if they managed to hold the current status quo.

[misko27]

It's at the point where Lamb's victory will be less than 50% because of the tiny Libertarian influence, but it does look like Lamb will win.

[smjjames]

Yeah, so ironic, those libertarian votes. Course, no way to know how each of those individual ~1,300 votes would have gone without interviewing each and every voter how they'd have voted if the libertarian candidate wasn't there.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

WE'RE GONNA CRASH!

[smjjames]

Called it in the practically 50/50 (ignoring the libertarian and random write ins). Both parties are going to spin it both ways, whoever wins, though this is supposed to be a 'safe' Republican district I believe.

[smjjames]

Theres that, yeah, which makes this seat something that Republicans should have won handidly. I've seen stuff like the Democrat was running like a Republican, Saccone was just a weak candidate, or Lamb was just a strong Democrat, or any combination of the above.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Margin just widened by 800 votes for Lamb.

[smjjames]

*wonders where those sudden 800 votes came from*

[Folly]

CNN currently reporting Lamb(D) up by 847 votes at 99%. 1195 absentee votes yet to be counted.