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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4434510 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15840 on: December 20, 2017, 01:33:12 am »

Virginia House of Delegates seat goes to the Democrats by margin of a single vote, ensuring the legislature as a whole will be either tied or Democratic depending on the outcome of the other two recounting seats.

But voting doesn't matter.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15841 on: December 20, 2017, 07:43:38 am »

Horrible tax plan passes congressional hurdles, at least for now...  Expected to be on the Trump's desk tomorrow...
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Aklyon

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15842 on: December 20, 2017, 09:10:25 am »

I hope they're happy with their achievement, because they aren't getting a second. Theres no more reconciliation for them to hide shit under unless they survive to jan 2019.
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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15843 on: December 20, 2017, 09:37:40 am »

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Sufficiently advanced computation, and knowledge of the system (that you're clearly already close enough to assess the geopolitical state of one inner planet, having come here from far away), could give you a reasonable chance of nudging an Oort Cloud object on a 'direct' course to Earth (orbitally curved by all manners of bodies, but not ever going to reach perihelion, because it ends up with an effective perigee  below the Earth's crust first). Choose a cigar-shape, orientated lengthwise towards the Earth (adjust by installed flywheels), and coat it with something like Vantablack with any unavoidably 'messy' surface details like radiators and communications arrays kept permanently facing away, and it'll be hard to detect in time to do anything about it, and you've already done the initial thrust-nudging way out beyond the likely limit of our noticing thermal thrusters/etc. (Do it well out of the ecliptic, for additional surprise.)

If you need adjustments, to counter an unplanned near-asteroid encounter's nudge, or the effects of unpredictable solar-wind gusts (they'll already have accounted for things like the Yarkovsky effect, expert space-farers as they are), subtle non-visiothermal adjustments can be made by sprung-loaded (or even linear mass-accelerator propelled) ejection of prepared 'ballast' masses, axially outwards. Fast enough to effect the required micronudge, small enough to be plentiful enough for all contingencies without depleting the 'attack mass' (which can start off arbitrarily large, up to the point of being useful without needing to be Zyra-sized, or even Theia-ish, whilst still being effective 'half used up').

But these are consumate interstellar travellers (and likelt have done this sort of thing before). They know our capabilities (if they're keeping abreast of our suitability for contact/destruction based on the news, they probably also tune into our science documentaries, if they haven't actually been here among us and ingratiated themseselves into NEAT and/or NEOShield conferences) and they also know that they can afford to reveal their hand overtly once their Rod From God is half way here, 'cos there's no Deep Impact/Armageddon mission possible (regardless of the recomissionability status of the Shuttle and other bodge-job components that can be sent to orbit) other than just try to send something thermonuclear in almost totally direct oposition to the incoming threat and try to blow up what is probably a carefully chosen dense and uncrumbly ballistic mass (not that crumbling into scattergun bits would help, anyway!) that probably could also uses its spring/mass-driver launch system to send a small wavefront of gravel ahead of it, as required, to create a counter-missile buffer-zone.


And that's without sci-fi level Futuretech, such as firing up a weaponised ion beam (or just retasking rear-end/sideways ion thrusters to send a brief focussed event forwars, now that we've seen it anyway) or doing handwavy things with magnetic fields.

Or just having used their access to the world's space agencies and governments (used successfully to deflect all detection for so long) to engineer a cock-up in the Last, Best Hope solution for mankind.  Big Dumb Rocket 1 'accidentally' enters a spin and loses telecommunication contact, Big Dumb Rocket 2 suffers from the rush to bring it into service and there's a 'problem' on the launchpad. Big Dumb Rocket 3 has an apparent propellant leak that drifts it sideways. Big Dumb Rocket 4 is delayed by the cumulative enquiry, which itself is being delayed by the breakdown of law and order as fhe world goes to Hell in a handcart, and the Earth Killer might as well, by now, roll up to the Earth, halt in mid-air and then project a "BANG!" flag out its front, because whatever the Others didn't like about the current pesky state of the world (Trump, Brexit, Indyref2, Ukraine, North Korea, Myanmar, Nepal, the South China Sea, Pitcairn Islands, the Three Gorges Dam, Fukashima, the North Circular between Barking and Wembley, that house that so eone painted in candystripes to annoy their neigbour, Weinstein, Rolf Harris, the Loch Ness Monster, being griefed by a 12-year-old in Call Of Duty, the misuse of apostrophes, that Spore wasn't as good as it was supposed to be, that Bladerunner 2049 (as good as it was) still doesn't definitively answer the question about Deckard...) is probably by now nothing to worry about. Job done!
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 09:42:34 am by Starver »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15844 on: December 20, 2017, 09:54:18 am »

Virginia House of Delegates seat goes to the Democrats by margin of a single vote, ensuring the legislature as a whole will be either tied or Democratic depending on the outcome of the other two recounting seats.

But voting doesn't matter.
I'm not sure that's good or bad though.  When you have a vote like 11,608 to 11,607 and you get a massive shift in potential policy because of it, that's not really that great.  What that vote says is that, on average, the population is fairly split on what they want - but then you get a significant change in the results based on that small delta.

Even when it came to the national election, and the popular vote was split, what, 48-52 or whatever it was... that just exacerbates the "tipping point" philosophy where a very small minority can effect massive changes in outcome.  Same thing when you get senate votes 51-49.

The population at large is really not as polarized as politics make it seem.  Instead it's polarized because a small relative difference in votes often makes such a massive difference in policy - it's inherently a very unstable system.  I don't even think a change away from first-past-the-post will fix this; it is going to take something much more dramatic.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15845 on: December 20, 2017, 01:06:23 pm »

A change away from first past the post will certainly help. Allowing third parties to actually be competitive would also go a ways towards helping.

Anyhoo, the tax bill passed the House (for the second time) and is en route to Trumps desk.

Sounds like they're going to do a continuing resolution to push it to Jan. 19th, but no guarantee.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 01:10:10 pm by smjjames »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15846 on: December 20, 2017, 01:24:35 pm »

A change away from first past the post will certainly help. Allowing third parties to actually be competitive would also go a ways towards helping.

Anyhoo, the tax bill passed the House (for the second time) and is en route to Trumps desk.

Sounds like they're going to do a continuing resolution to push it to Jan. 19th, but no guarantee.

How would changing from first-past-the-post voting help?  Allowing "third parties" isn't going to do anything if the third parties are in a minority - because they will have to side with the polarizing dominant parties.  You'd have to get enough alternative viewpoints in there to form a powerful enough bloc to make a difference and moderate things, rather than just be the few individuals who get to name their price for voting along one of the other party lines.

Or am I just being too pessimistic?
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Aklyon

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15847 on: December 20, 2017, 01:30:46 pm »

Give them more time to faff about? They rushed out with this useless shit of a bill the last time we did that, they've already shown they can do fast. So how about they do fast when they have to actually cooperate? Surely they can do something actually worthwhile in the two days they've been given left with christmas threatening them if they don't. Plenty of time!

/s
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15848 on: December 20, 2017, 01:43:04 pm »

Give them more time to faff about? They rushed out with this useless shit of a bill the last time we did that, they've already shown they can do fast. So how about they do fast when they have to actually cooperate? Surely they can do something actually worthwhile in the two days they've been given left with christmas threatening them if they don't. Plenty of time!

/s

The House is doing a continuing resolution that pushes it to January 19th or so, but from the article, it sounds like there are still internal squabbles that they have to get over for the House. Plus the conservatives in the House seem to be raring for a fight with the Senate, and it's not clear whether the Senate might pass it or not.

Vox discussion with an author on why most baby boomers have wrecked America. The final message is pretty much "if we don't have massive turnover in politics, we're screwed". Edit: Or possibly a massive lurch to the left, as we've been seeing more and more with millenials.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 01:47:28 pm by smjjames »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15849 on: December 20, 2017, 02:00:56 pm »

I wouldn't say that Vox is a very tempered source of information though - they seem to be very sensationalist (and they definitely don't hide their bias).  That sounds a bit chicken little to me - we've been teetering on the razor edge between wreckage and prosperity for a long time*.

Also, I really, really wish people would be able to separate fiscal conservatism / liberalism from social conservatism / liberalism and corporate conservatism / liberalism.

Personally I'm fiscally conservative, socially kind of middle of the road, and align more with the liberals when it comes to corporate dealings like antitrust but not everything; for instance I prefer the goals of the liberals when it comes to things like environment but I dislike their methodology.

*It's also like climate change: some people will fall toward wreckage, some will prosper - so crying "total destruction" is not really recognizing the nuances of the situation, and generally just serves to further polarize the population instead of trying to get people to work together.  I hate these "let's blame group X" headlines - even if that group does have the majority share of the blame, work to fix it not just increase the division...
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15850 on: December 20, 2017, 02:26:00 pm »

Vox discussion with an author on why most baby boomers have wrecked America. The final message is pretty much "if we don't have massive turnover in politics, we're screwed". Edit: Or possibly a massive lurch to the left, as we've been seeing more and more with millenials.

This is about as credible as any of the "millennials have ruined America!!1!" articles out there. People simply love to hate on other generations, it seems.
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Zangi

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress voting on finalized tax 'reform'
« Reply #15851 on: December 20, 2017, 02:47:57 pm »

A change away from first past the post will certainly help. Allowing third parties to actually be competitive would also go a ways towards helping.

Anyhoo, the tax bill passed the House (for the second time) and is en route to Trumps desk.

Sounds like they're going to do a continuing resolution to push it to Jan. 19th, but no guarantee.

How would changing from first-past-the-post voting help?  Allowing "third parties" isn't going to do anything if the third parties are in a minority - because they will have to side with the polarizing dominant parties.  You'd have to get enough alternative viewpoints in there to form a powerful enough bloc to make a difference and moderate things, rather than just be the few individuals who get to name their price for voting along one of the other party lines.

Or am I just being too pessimistic?
Pessimism.  A change like that will probably only actually affect elections a few election cycles later. 

Of course, you'll have random people who expected immediate changes to get pissy about it and it'll give fodder for the entrenched political interests to change it back cause 'it didn't do anything useful anyways'. 

It probably is also not in the interest of our political lobby system.  Once other parties get rolling, more money needs to be thrown around to buy those other parties.
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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15852 on: December 20, 2017, 02:52:46 pm »

I wouldn't say that Vox is a very tempered source of information though - they seem to be very sensationalist (and they definitely don't hide their bias).  That sounds a bit chicken little to me - we've been teetering on the razor edge between wreckage and prosperity for a long time*.

Also, I really, really wish people would be able to separate fiscal conservatism / liberalism from social conservatism / liberalism and corporate conservatism / liberalism.

Personally I'm fiscally conservative, socially kind of middle of the road, and align more with the liberals when it comes to corporate dealings like antitrust but not everything; for instance I prefer the goals of the liberals when it comes to things like environment but I dislike their methodology.

*It's also like climate change: some people will fall toward wreckage, some will prosper - so crying "total destruction" is not really recognizing the nuances of the situation, and generally just serves to further polarize the population instead of trying to get people to work together.  I hate these "let's blame group X" headlines - even if that group does have the majority share of the blame, work to fix it not just increase the division...
What we also need is to separate neo-liberalism from capitalism.
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EnigmaticHat

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15853 on: December 20, 2017, 03:44:02 pm »

Vox discussion with an author on why most baby boomers have wrecked America. The final message is pretty much "if we don't have massive turnover in politics, we're screwed". Edit: Or possibly a massive lurch to the left, as we've been seeing more and more with millenials.

This is about as credible as any of the "millennials have ruined America!!1!" articles out there. People simply love to hate on other generations, it seems.
No, its not.  Boomers fucked up both America and the world.

To provide just one of many examples: social security.  Boomers are one of the only large groups of people on planet Earth that are categorically opposed to welfare.  They are also unusually predisposed against raising taxes in all its forms.

Because of the boomer's political influence, the formation of a functioning healthcare system in the US has been delayed by decades.  As has a tax structure that would function to promote movement of money and reduction of wealth inequality.

Yet, that same influence protects social security on absolute terms.  Social security, which is a tax on the young that only benefits the old.  Social security, which is blatantly a form of welfare to protect the old.  Social security, which costs the nation more than our bloated military.  If the baby boomers held to their own principles, we would essentially not have a deficit. (this isn't an exaggeration, the current deficit is a little under a trillion IIRC, if we dropped social security but kept up the taxes that supported it, almost all of that trillion would be gone)

I have heard of many nations on Earth where political power is used to give wealth and agency from one group to another.  Be it from a lower class to an upper class, one ethnic group to another, the citizens of other nations to the citizens of the home nation.  But I have never heard of any other nation on Earth where on such a wide scale political power is used to plunder the younger generation for the sake of the old.

For anyone who didn't know, Boomers are called that because they were part of a baby boom.  Their generation is larger than the generations that came both before and after, which is why political power is so skewed towards the elderly in the US (and why in 10-20 years there's going to be a massive political shift as those elderly die).  Boomers were raised during a time of economic growth.  Between their inflation-adjusted higher incomes, more effective social services, and greatly reduced inflation-adjusted prices, when Boomers first graduated high school and college they had a buying power something like 4-10 times as much as Millennials have now.  They grew up in a time of political upheaval and activism powered by the fact that they had so much disposable income they could afford to go out and make change in the world.  During the Clinton and Reagan administrations, the majority of Boomers formed a de facto united political bloc consisting of conservative democrats, swing state moderates, and economic conservatives.  From formation to the election of Obama, this voting bloc got its way.  Boomers, satisfied in their wealth and power, forgot their activism and their old frustrations.  They began to grow dissatisfied because the perceived economic injustices of America weren't being fixed, but were blinded by the dissatisfaction to the fact that in almost every way, their informal center-right political platform was being implemented.  When Obama was elected on social media and youth turnout, they finally saw something happen in American politics that wasn't driven by them.  And that planted a deeper seed of anger and frustration than they already had.  But the thing is that Obama was still 80% in line with what the majority of Boomers wanted, he just wasn't their candidate.  In 2016, the seed of Obama era frustration blossomed, and angry Boomers voted in Trump.  That decision has broken the center-right, Boomer dominated bloc that has run the country for 2-3 decades.  Economic conservatives are no longer the driving force in the Republican party.  The conservative democrats are diluting their political influence as some swing left to become economic or progressive democrats while others stay where they are.  All that the boomers have is the swing voters now, but the swing voters of 2018 aren't going to live in Ohio, they're going to live in the political strongholds of the Republicans.  The Boomers quietly grind their teeth, feeling futile as their political influence collapses, too blind to see no one did this to them.

See, Boomers are so used to getting their way that that's status quo to them.  Getting everything they want is mediocrity, ruling everything is equality.  A petty but representative example of this would be Christmas.  US toy advertising is designed to manipulate kids into harassing their parents into spending large amounts of money.  My impression is that a lot of older working class men in America see/saw Christmas as something stressful they do for the kids.  They spend a lot of money, fall off ladders putting up Christmas lights, ect. ect.  Its a sacrifice.  But if you look at what Christmas actually is in America, its super focused on Boomers.  Every song, every Christmas movie is from the 90s.  And the narrative around Christmas, of uniting the family and decorating the house, that's what Boomers care about.  It doesn't reflect millennial values at all.  This isn't to say that Christmas has hurt Millennials exactly.  Its more that, to paraphrase Randal Munroe, "every year since the 90s we've been recreating the Christmas of the Boomers' childhood".

This is where the great irony of the Boomer's anger comes in.  The taxes have been cut.  The "welfare queens" put out on the street.  We have a strong military.  We support our troops, we "support" our cops.  Media that would "corrupt the youth" has been censored so widely that 90% of the population doesn't see it as censorship anymore.  The free love movement was quashed, and the LGBT movement only allowed to move forward only once it adopted the old dream of the nuclear family and suburban home.  The civil rights movement has been blocked, the war on drugs continued despite 95% of everyone who isn't an old white person hating it.  And now that its collapsed, its being quietly dismantled behind the scene so that Boomers don't have to think about the enormity of the harm they caused.  How many of them do you think would still say Bill Clinton was a good candidate?  How many of them do you think would say they liked him because he was hard on crime?

In every way that matters, Boomers got their way.  Yet they're still massively dissatisfied.  For my entire life, everyone I've known over the age of 50 has taken it as a given that the country is on a downward slope.  Maybe they don't hate the government, but they hate "how polarized things have become", or they have some pet peeve with government.  Or they just take it as a given things are going badly.  Because again, they're so used to getting their way, getting their way reads as not getting their way.  This is where Obama comes in.  Obama was a center-left candidate.  He differed from Boomers in three main points: he was apathetic towards the war on drugs, he wanted a modern healthcare system (remember, by international standards Obamacare is a private system), and he believed in climate change (but was not primarily motivated by climate issues).  On everything else, he was pretty much lockstep.  And those are not big points.  But the thing is, they didn't elect him.  He was a youth candidate.  And so they were furious.  See, what happened is, they neither got their way nor didn't get their way.  Obama was a mixed victory for their voting bloc.  But they had never lost a presidential election before.  To them, winning felt like a loss.  So not winning?  It felt like the sky was falling.

This isn't even getting into the harm climate change denial has done.  Its a phenomenon unique to pretty much us and the UK; societies disconnected from the global communication network and modern science don't necessarily believe in climate change, but it would be disingenuous to call some pre-industrial village or hunter gatherer tribe "climate change deniers".  We can't even say its China's fault any more, and AFAIK the climate change deniers in the UK have pretty much let off. Its JUST this one cluster of entitled fucks in the US dragging the entire world further past the point of no return.  Anyone see Moana?  Some Polynesian islands have already dissapeared beneath the sea.  When that happens the tribe doesn't just reform somewhere else; their culture is inseparable from the island.  The people might live but the society is broken.  Its basically inevitable at this point that that's going to happen to that entire culture.  It will effectively cease to exist.  Its also highly unlikely Puerto Rico will ever recover or become a state, they might not be rebuilt in time for next hurricane season and its just going to get worse and worse every year.  New Orleans is on the Boomer's shriveled, ignored conscience, now Texas joins it.  And this is the minor stuff.  The harm we're looking at in the next decade from global warming will make us wish we could have Katrina back.
« Last Edit: December 20, 2017, 03:49:41 pm by EnigmaticHat »
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Re: AmeriPol: Congress passes tax 'reform', Trump to sign, now facing gov shutdown
« Reply #15854 on: December 20, 2017, 04:05:03 pm »

'Current deficit is under a trillion', I think you mean the yearly deficit right?

Vox discussion with an author on why most baby boomers have wrecked America. The final message is pretty much "if we don't have massive turnover in politics, we're screwed". Edit: Or possibly a massive lurch to the left, as we've been seeing more and more with millenials.

This is about as credible as any of the "millennials have ruined America!!1!" articles out there. People simply love to hate on other generations, it seems.
No, its not.  Boomers fucked up both America and the world.

To provide just one of many examples: social security.  Boomers are one of the only large groups of people on planet Earth that are categorically opposed to welfare.  They are also unusually predisposed against raising taxes in all its forms.

Because of the boomer's political influence, the formation of a functioning healthcare system in the US has been delayed by decades.  As has a tax structure that would function to promote movement of money and reduction of wealth inequality.

Yet, that same influence protects social security on absolute terms.  Social security, which is a tax on the young that only benefits the old.  Social security, which is blatantly a form of welfare to protect the old.  Social security, which costs the nation more than our bloated military.  If the baby boomers held to their own principles, we would essentially not have a deficit. (this isn't an exaggeration, the current deficit is a little under a trillion IIRC, if we dropped social security but kept up the taxes that supported it, almost all of that trillion would be gone)

I object to that characterization of social security because it helps the poor and I don't see how it's a tax on the young, and it also helps the disabled. I'm a bit surprised at your characterization of it actually. Of course it benefits the old now because of the baby boomer generation getting old, but seriously, it helps the disabled and also the poor.

BTW, those very same baby boomers are looking into cutting social security, among other things.

Quote
-snip-

There's definetly an upcoming generational shift in politics, no question about that.
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