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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4452525 times)

smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15045 on: December 01, 2017, 11:35:06 am »

Oh shit, he's gonna deliver the nuclear equivalent of a bombshell, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/362773-flynn-to-testify-trump-directed-him-to-make-contact-with-the (Russians)

Let's see Trump try to slime his way outta this.
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Wolfhunter107

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15046 on: December 01, 2017, 11:42:06 am »

Oh fuck, here we go.
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15048 on: December 01, 2017, 11:56:13 am »

Oh shit, he's gonna deliver the nuclear equivalent of a bombshell, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/362773-flynn-to-testify-trump-directed-him-to-make-contact-with-the (Russians)

Let's see Trump try to slime his way outta this.

That... doesn't seem very likely, at all. It's basically a clickbait story whose entire argument is based on another clickbait story by ABC News. The ABC story doesn't even present any evidence as to what Flynn is actually going to say to the investigation, despite the headline. As I said, he might just say something completely inconsequential, not necessarily this "bombshell" you're talking about.
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ZeroGravitas

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15049 on: December 01, 2017, 11:57:30 am »

Oh shit, he's gonna deliver the nuclear equivalent of a bombshell, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/362773-flynn-to-testify-trump-directed-him-to-make-contact-with-the (Russians)

Let's see Trump try to slime his way outta this.

That... doesn't seem very likely, at all. It's basically a clickbait story whose entire argument is based on another clickbait story by ABC News. The ABC story doesn't even present any evidence as to what Flynn is actually going to say to the investigation, despite the headline. As I said, he might just say something completely inconsequential, not necessarily this "bombshell" you're talking about.

If he were only going to say something inconsequential, he would have been charged with more, and his son would be charged.

He's definitely flipped to prosecution witness at this point.
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NullForceOmega

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15050 on: December 01, 2017, 12:00:39 pm »

Kind of a link.  It's going to depend extremely heavily on whether or not any facts can be dug up about these meetings the Trump campaign had with the Russians, and if there is any actual evidence of 'negotiations', the Logan act does not prevent private contact and discussion with foreign powers, only 'negotiations'.  Still, this could be very relevant.

Far, far too early to be celebrating anything.
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15051 on: December 01, 2017, 12:01:52 pm »

Oh shit, he's gonna deliver the nuclear equivalent of a bombshell, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/362773-flynn-to-testify-trump-directed-him-to-make-contact-with-the (Russians)

Let's see Trump try to slime his way outta this.

That... doesn't seem very likely, at all. It's basically a clickbait story whose entire argument is based on another clickbait story by ABC News. The ABC story doesn't even present any evidence as to what Flynn is actually going to say to the investigation, despite the headline. As I said, he might just say something completely inconsequential, not necessarily this "bombshell" you're talking about.

If he were only going to say something inconsequential, he would have been charged with more, and his son would be charged.

He's definitely flipped to prosecution witness at this point.

Okay, but still, we don't actually know what exactly he's going to say. In all likelihood, he's not going to rat Trump out cold. If you read the ABC story, they don't mention that at all, except in the headline. It's just pure clickbait.

Ninja-edit:

Kind of a link.  It's going to depend extremely heavily on whether or not any facts can be dug up about these meetings the Trump campaign had with the Russians, and if there is any actual evidence of 'negotiations', the Logan act does not prevent private contact and discussion with foreign powers, only 'negotiations'.  Still, this could be very relevant.

Far, far too early to be celebrating anything.
Precisely what I'm saying.
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The closest thing Bay12 has to a flamewar is an argument over philosophy that slowly transitioned to an argument about quantum mechanics.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15052 on: December 01, 2017, 12:01:59 pm »

It's still a major development because of the questions on what did Trump know and when. While this is after the election, it shows that Trump was in full control of this.
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ZeroGravitas

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15053 on: December 01, 2017, 12:15:49 pm »

Oh shit, he's gonna deliver the nuclear equivalent of a bombshell, http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/362773-flynn-to-testify-trump-directed-him-to-make-contact-with-the (Russians)

Let's see Trump try to slime his way outta this.

That... doesn't seem very likely, at all. It's basically a clickbait story whose entire argument is based on another clickbait story by ABC News. The ABC story doesn't even present any evidence as to what Flynn is actually going to say to the investigation, despite the headline. As I said, he might just say something completely inconsequential, not necessarily this "bombshell" you're talking about.

If he were only going to say something inconsequential, he would have been charged with more, and his son would be charged.

He's definitely flipped to prosecution witness at this point.

Okay, but still, we don't actually know what exactly he's going to say. In all likelihood, he's not going to rat Trump out cold. If you read the ABC story, they don't mention that at all, except in the headline. It's just pure clickbait.

Ninja-edit:

Kind of a link.  It's going to depend extremely heavily on whether or not any facts can be dug up about these meetings the Trump campaign had with the Russians, and if there is any actual evidence of 'negotiations', the Logan act does not prevent private contact and discussion with foreign powers, only 'negotiations'.  Still, this could be very relevant.

Far, far too early to be celebrating anything.
Precisely what I'm saying.

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15054 on: December 01, 2017, 12:21:32 pm »

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.

So you basically immediately assume that Flynn's just going to drop to his knees in tears and tell the investigation absolutely everything? He might do that, by some slim chance, but I'm saying that we aren't sure about what he's going to say at this point, and therefore it's too early for us to speculate.
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The closest thing Bay12 has to a flamewar is an argument over philosophy that slowly transitioned to an argument about quantum mechanics.
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ZeroGravitas

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15055 on: December 01, 2017, 12:32:01 pm »

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.

So you basically immediately assume that Flynn's just going to drop to his knees in tears and tell the investigation absolutely everything? He might do that, by some slim chance, but I'm saying that we aren't sure about what he's going to say at this point, and therefore it's too early for us to speculate.

I'm saying he already did.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2017, 12:37:15 pm by ZeroGravitas »
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15056 on: December 01, 2017, 12:36:32 pm »

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.

So you basically immediately assume that Flynn's just going to drop to his knees in tears and tell the investigation absolutely everything? He might do that, by some slim chance, but I'm saying that we aren't sure about what he's going to say at this point, and therefore it's too early for us to speculate.

I'm saying he already did.

And why, may I ask, do you assume he already did, if we have hardly any information about it either way?
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The closest thing Bay12 has to a flamewar is an argument over philosophy that slowly transitioned to an argument about quantum mechanics.
Quote from: thefriendlyhacker
The trick is to only make predictions semi-seriously.  That way, I don't have a 98% failure rate. I have a 98% sarcasm rate.

ZeroGravitas

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15057 on: December 01, 2017, 12:37:27 pm »

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.

So you basically immediately assume that Flynn's just going to drop to his knees in tears and tell the investigation absolutely everything? He might do that, by some slim chance, but I'm saying that we aren't sure about what he's going to say at this point, and therefore it's too early for us to speculate.

I'm saying he already did.

And why, may I ask, do you assume he already did, if we have hardly any information about it either way?

Because he was only charged with a single count of lying to the FBI, and there are no plans to charge his son with anything either. If he weren't going to cooperate, he would be facing a dozen or more charges about various lies and financial arrangements over the years, like Manafort is.

Also, because he pled guilty. The prosecutors have what they want from him, and so he is being allowed to plead guilty to a single felony.

In short, nobody's actions in this circumstance make sense unless there is a significant deal behind the scenes and Mueller's office has the testimony it wants. Flynn wouldn't be charged, nor would he have pled guilty, otherwise.
« Last Edit: December 01, 2017, 12:40:36 pm by ZeroGravitas »
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bloop_bleep

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15058 on: December 01, 2017, 12:45:38 pm »

It's only as limited as that if you 1) ignore everything being leaked out of the situation and 2) know nothing about how corruption/organized crime/financial fraud prosecutors do their jobs. which is exactly what mueller is.

So yes, if you read only the published facts and forget everything else you know about the world, you could imagine that this is nothing but a minor charge with no significant implications for anyone else connected to the investigation.

So you basically immediately assume that Flynn's just going to drop to his knees in tears and tell the investigation absolutely everything? He might do that, by some slim chance, but I'm saying that we aren't sure about what he's going to say at this point, and therefore it's too early for us to speculate.

I'm saying he already did.

And why, may I ask, do you assume he already did, if we have hardly any information about it either way?

Because he was only charged with a single count of lying to the FBI, and there are no plans to charge his son with anything either. If he weren't going to cooperate, he would be facing a dozen or more charges about various lies and financial arrangements over the years, like Manafort is.

Also, because he pled guilty. The prosecutors have what they want from him, and so he is being allowed to plead guilty to a single felony.

I don't think you understand me. He said *something* to the investigators, and we don't know whether that something is an outright rat-out of Trump. The articles with the headlines saying "he's gonna spill everything!" present no actual evidence that that's what he did.
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The closest thing Bay12 has to a flamewar is an argument over philosophy that slowly transitioned to an argument about quantum mechanics.
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ZeroGravitas

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Re: AmeriPol: Congress attempts to cross streams while working on tax 'reform'
« Reply #15059 on: December 01, 2017, 12:50:59 pm »

I don't think you understand me. He said *something* to the investigators, and we don't know whether that something is an outright rat-out of Trump. The articles with the headlines saying "he's gonna spill everything!" present no actual evidence that that's what he did.

And as I already said, all indications point to it being something *significant* because of the number of things he *could* have been charged with, and because every leaker with knowledge of the situation is saying, "Flynn is going to testify that Trump told him to break the law/lie about it."

So yes, leaving aside our knowledge of how prosecutors proportionally reduce charges based on the value of the witness (and Flynn is getting off easy here), and leaving aside what every unofficial source is saying, then yes, we don't know what's going on.
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