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[Loud Whispers]

A weapon to surpass metal gear

[martinuzz]

Unsurprising, with Trump as president.

[sluissa]

Another meh. I worry less about the bombers and more about the missiles.

Bombers take significant time to reach their targets, can be called back, and have an extra set of humans in the command chain to error check.

Missiles are quick and have no callback or cancel ability and once launched the missiles won't do any thinking beyond what's required to reach their target.

Bombers are also significantly more useful as a threat against rogue states *cough*NK*cough*. It's easy to ignore someone promising they have missiles in silos or on unseen submarines. A whole mess of bombers flying at you, that's another story. That's something that can be seen. Something that can actually be used as a threat before it gets to the point of "pushing the button that can't be unpushed.*

[RedKing]

Trump doesn't strike me as a guy who "unpushes" anything. Even if he fucked up and hit the launch button because he was trying to scratch his ass, he'd make up a reason why it was totally called for, bigly. And anyone who disagrees is a loser and hates America.

[smjjames]

So this is a thing, now. I... really don't have much else to say.

Unsurprising, with Trump as president.

Not surprising with the NK stuff ramping up recently.

Another meh. I worry less about the bombers and more about the missiles.

Bombers take significant time to reach their targets, can be called back, and have an extra set of humans in the command chain to error check.

Missiles are quick and have no callback or cancel ability and once launched the missiles won't do any thinking beyond what's required to reach their target.

Bombers are also significantly more useful as a threat against rogue states *cough*NK*cough*. It's easy to ignore someone promising they have missiles in silos or on unseen submarines. A whole mess of bombers flying at you, that's another story. That's something that can be seen. Something that can actually be used as a threat before it gets to the point of "pushing the button that can't be unpushed.*

But can NK see them in time to make a decision? I suppose we're starting to see the 'military options' being deployed.

A thought occurs to me, if the bombers head towards NK, they're going to rattle Russia and China because there's no way of getting to NK without having a general trajectory towards either one.

[Maximum Spin]

Frankly, the bombers should never be off alert.

[RedKing]

Frankly, the bombers should never be off alert.

Disagree. Unnecessary cost and increased risk.

Also, it should be noted that they're NOT back on alert. They're merely preparing in case they are ordered to put them back on alert. Considerable difference.

[Lord Shonus]

A thought occurs to me, if the bombers head towards NK, they're going to rattle Russia and China because there's no way of getting to NK without having a general trajectory towards either one.

That problem is why the US would use bombers instead of ICBMs or SLBMs to threaten or (if the situation deteriorated enough) strike NK. Bombers have unlimited flight paths, and you can pick one that looks non threatening enough not to panic Russia or China. There is no practical trajectory for a ballistic missile that does not pass over Chinese or Russian (generally Chinese AND Russian) territory, so those nations would be very likely to view any such launch as a potential threat - especially if the rumors that Russian BM detection is much more spotty than it should be.

[smjjames]

Just launch westward, wouldn't cross the territory of either, but yeah, the proximity would still make a missile look like it's incoming no matter what.

Using the planes would also give time to reassure Russia and China if they get nervous.

[Dunamisdeos]

Or we could like, call them. Be like hey there are about to be missiles in the air. They are not for you, it's good.

Trump doesn't strike me as a guy who "unpushes" anything. Even if he fucked up and hit the launch button because he was trying to scratch his ass, he'd make up a reason why it was totally called for, bigly. And anyone who disagrees is a loser and hates America.

If he did he would say that he doesn't even know why everyone is so worked up about it, it was just a button, no one got hurt, the media is playing this up to hurt me so sad.

[EnigmaticHat]

The problem is that, AFAIK, most early warning devices other countries would have for nukes would only detect them less than an hour before impact.  From a quick google search, more like 20 minutes.  It also takes time to launch nukes, depending on where they're coming from.  So if anyone launches an ICBM, every other country has maybe 10 minutes to decide what they're going to do.  And then if anyone else decides "OK, I'll launch MY nukes," then everyone else has to make that decision, again.  Including us.

So the only way advance warning will work, is if you get the OK from the other countries to go ahead with the launch.  Otherwise you still have to deal with the paranoia, and the fact that someone else's nuclear doctrine might involve nuking you regardless.  But you're not going to get the OK from them, they're going to say "don't do it."  With an optional "or we'll launch our nukes."

All of which kind of ignores the fact that any ICBM heading towards NK is going to look a hell of a lot like an ICBM heading towards China, which is allied with them anyway... at least a nuclear bomber might look like a spy plane or something.

[Dunamisdeos]

I don't think that anyone would launch nukes in retaliation to a strike against a third party. I think that would be the absolute last thing that anyone would do.

For reals why can't we call China and Russia and be like hey, we are launching missiles at NK, they are not for you, here is the planned trajectory. We would have to be the unprovoked aggressor in any scenario in which anyone provided direct assistance to NK. If they launched first everyone would know it.

[Lord Shonus]

Not to mention that "Don't worry, we're not shooting at you" is exactly what somebody who is shooting at you would say.

Meanwhile, a bomber likely wouldn't be detected until it was close enough to Korea to clearly show where it was going, and a small bomber strike that wouldn't get through Chinese or Russian air defenses is a hell of a lot less threatening.

[Reelya]

You can also call the bombers and tell them to abort at any point, so you can use them as a bargaining chip until the last minute.

[smjjames]

You can also call the bombers and tell them to abort at any point, so you can use them as a bargaining chip until the last minute.

How many times has that tactic actually been used? Doesn't seem wise to use that tactic against our larger adversaries with actual nukes.

I can definetly see Trump using that tactic on NK though.