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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4185509 times)

Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10215 on: August 09, 2017, 06:34:53 pm »

Something something vacant positions something.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10216 on: August 09, 2017, 06:38:29 pm »

Except China has been working on anti-carrier weapons and tactics for at least 20 years now. If shit stayed conventional, and it looked like NK was gonna get steamrolled, I could see the PLA (with or without official sanction) handing the DPRK a few under the table to help even the odds (and blunt US force projection at the same time).

Of course China's been working on anti-carrier strategies and weapons. That would be a huge deal, in a war with China.

At present, the known Chinese approaches to anti-carrier work involve anti-ship ballistic missiles and sea-skimming cruise missiles, the same as everyone else who plots attacks against carriers are using.

Sea-skimming cruise missiles would have to be launched in very high numbers (at least 60) to have a real chance of breaking through a carrier battle group's defenses, as the USN (and allied navies) has spend the last fifty years perfecting defenses against precisely that threat. Surreptitiously supplying the DPRK with that many weapons would be very difficult to pull off without getting caught. This is also a threat that can be completely neutralized by staying far enough offshore, as the DPRK doesn't have sufficient mobile launch platforms (bombers, missile boats, etc) to carry out such a strike.

We don't know how well a carrier group's defenses would stand up to a ASBM attack, so it is conceivable (but unlikely) that a mere dozen or so missiles might get through. This is, however, largely irrelevant. Only four nations are working on such systems (Russia, China, India, and Iran), and only one has one that would be useful in this scenario (Russia cancelled their system under the SALT treaty, India's and Iran's are pretty short ranged). It is literally impossible for China not to be immediately blamed if such a weapon destroyed a US ship.

Openly providing the DPRK with such a weapon would be a breach of a great many international treaties and cause immense diplomatic damage to China.

Providing such a weapon to the DPRK in secret, during active or imminent hostilities, for the express purpose of causing damage to a rival would fall under a much simpler category. It would be an act of war.


China's government is not nearly stupid enough to take that risk, and if some lower-level official decided to do so, that official's family would almost certainly be billed the cost of a bullet.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10217 on: August 09, 2017, 07:02:02 pm »

So, basically, if China supplied NK with lesser war materials like guns and bullets and got caught doing it, it'd be an act of war? Though I'm sure the Geneva Convention covers this somewhere.

Since war with the US is something they'd like to avoid as much as possible, I guess they'd be limited to non-military support like food.

Anyways, NK responded and basically said "We think you're full of shit." (maybe if he did it at the Resolute Desk, he'd be taken more seriously? heh), and are saying that they'll complete a plan to strike near Guam by mid-August, give it to Kim Jong-Un, and wait and see.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 07:04:46 pm by smjjames »
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Loud Whispers

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10218 on: August 09, 2017, 07:10:26 pm »

inb4 north korea goes full retard and actually attacks the usa

smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10219 on: August 09, 2017, 07:14:24 pm »

Their plan apparently is to not really hit the island and instead (try to) hit the waters around and near Guam. Sounds more like a test to see what Trump actually does.

It seemed odd to me that they were signalling exactly what they were going to do (aside from the timing, obviously), sort of like "We don't REALLY want to hit you, just make you shit your pants." Of course, they could be bluffing and send four missiles elsewhere while shouting "PSYCH!"

Also, gonna note that neither Trump or anybody in the admin has responded back to that yet.

edit: And the fact that it was apparently impromptu certainly didn't help towards NK taking Trump seriously.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 07:23:36 pm by smjjames »
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MrRoboto75

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10220 on: August 09, 2017, 08:06:22 pm »

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Loud Whispers

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10221 on: August 09, 2017, 08:10:30 pm »

(try to)
hmmmmm
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Their plan apparently is to not really hit the island and instead (try to) hit the waters around and near Guam. Sounds more like a test to see what Trump actually does.
There is a man at the head of an armored division, he is sitting outside of a main battle tank with the entirety of the division's guns facing me. I pull out my gun, and shoot at what I think is a space near the man's head, but not actually his head. I am not a good aim

misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10222 on: August 09, 2017, 08:12:08 pm »

It certainly would be very embarrassing for them if they failed (whether it lands in drink a 100 miles short of the target, or alternately, it lands on top of Guam). Imagine the pressure on those engineers. The outcome of one of what could be the most serious diplomatic incidents in recent history will rest on your engineering competence.

It'd be a hell of a premise for a movie if anyone is alive to see the funny side afterwards.
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MrRoboto75

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10223 on: August 09, 2017, 08:16:09 pm »

It wouldn't surprise me if it was an "unfortunate accident" much like missing a noble in DF is the result of an "unfortunate accident".
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10224 on: August 09, 2017, 08:17:53 pm »

(try to)

hmmmmm

I said '(try to)' because their ability to be extremely accurate hasn't been proven yet. Though I guess the fact that they have managed to get their missiles right up into the edge of Japans Exclusive Economic Zone and not inside it shows some ability to be accurate.

It certainly would be very embarrassing for them if they failed (whether it lands in drink a 100 miles short of the target, or alternately, it lands on top of Guam). Imagine the pressure on those engineers. The outcome of one of what could be the most serious diplomatic incidents in recent history will rest on your engineering competence.

It'd be a hell of a premise for a movie if anyone is alive to see the funny side afterwards.

Yeah, it's certainly a bit of a double edged sword for NK's own reputation since if you boast a claim that you can hit the bullseye in one shot, you'd BETTER get a bullseye in one shot. Also, it's four missiles, which ups the chance of success somewhat, but at the same time, ups the embarrassment of failiure.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2017, 08:19:59 pm by smjjames »
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Egan_BW

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10225 on: August 09, 2017, 08:46:29 pm »

inb4 the missiles somehow land in china, proving to everyone once and for all that we do not live in a rational universe
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10226 on: August 09, 2017, 08:55:24 pm »

It would be a massive screwup if that ever happened, for sure.
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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10227 on: August 10, 2017, 02:41:31 am »

NK attacking the USA is the only thing that could get Trump's approval positive. So he's probably rooting for it.
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Loud Whispers

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10228 on: August 10, 2017, 03:05:00 am »

martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread: D. C. on summer break
« Reply #10229 on: August 10, 2017, 03:18:45 am »

Well yea, that's the most terrifying about this whole thing. For all you know, a US nuke lands on London today, because Trump thinks NK is a suburb of London.
Or he nukes New York, cause he thinks NK is somewhere to the southeast of Chinatown.
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