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[wierd]

In short, their "ignore the problem and it will go away" tactic has failed, so now they have to do what their american and european counterparts have been begging them to do for the better part of half a century.

[Lord Shonus]

Pretty much.


Until now, their worst-case scenario was "getting an American ally right on the border, greatly increasing American influence in the region generally and that part of China specifically"

Now, that is rapidly becoming their best-case scenario.

[Neonivek]

On a side note here is a Anti Gun Control Parody (Not Satire)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWA0rukqrYQ

I can't get through it because dear GOODNESS!!! The NRA would look at this and lose their marbles with how many gun safety violations there are.

Though I guess I am posting it less because it is funny (in which this is considered the guy's worst episode) and more because I am like "ACK NO STOP! don't poke your knee with your gun nozzle"

[smjjames]

I suppose if we ever do attack NK and China isn't directly opposing us, they can, via agreement, go a little ways past the border to create a bit of a buffer zone to give them a little peace of mind since getting too close to the border is what freaked out China the last time there was a war on the Korean penninsula.

[Neonivek]

I wonder if the stories about how badly the North Koreans are under the government regime are... Are true or just propaganda.

[wierd]

It is probably a hyper-realistic toy gun. (There was a period before the 80s where those were popular children's toys, but they were pulled from the market, and required to have orange plugs in the barrel to denote it as a toy replica, due to a number of minority child shootings by police.)

Neon: True.  There was an undercover documentary where the crew went with optemetrists and opticians, to help the NK people with their epidemic of really bad vision care.

[RedKing]

In short, their "ignore the problem and it will go away" tactic has failed, so now they have to do what their american and european counterparts have been begging them to do for the better part of half a century.

That's an oddly Western-centric interpretation. China hasn't been ignoring the problem, they've been managing two diametrically opposed problems:
1. An unstable North Korea on their border.
2. A perceivedly hostile global power having a foothold just beyond that.

China needs North Korea to not implode. They also need US troops to not be right on their fucking doorstep.

There are also historical and cultural connections to Korea to consider. It's a bit like if Canada went stark raving mad, but north of Canada were the White Walkers. Even a friendly but insane High Moose Lord on your borders is better than allowing Canada to become the stepping stone to potential invasion.

US-China tensions are certainly not what they were 40 or even 20 years ago, which removes some of the pressure on that side of the equation.
NK now seems even more unstable than decades past, which ramps up pressure on the other side of the equation.
The potential for escalation to armed conflict seems to be much higher currently than at any time since 1953.
And as others have pointed out, Trump is enough of an unpredictable factor that the potential for nukes to be involved raises the stakes for the whole thing.

[smjjames]

I wonder if the stories about how badly the North Koreans are under the government regime are... Are true or just propaganda.

The specifics depend on who you are, but the repression (and oppression) there is definetly real.

@RedKing: I guess they could come to an agreement that the US troop stuff stay in the southern part? Since they definetly ain't leaving, but being there is better than right on the border.

[Neonivek]

I wonder if the stories about how badly the North Koreans are under the government regime are... Are true or just propaganda.

The specifics depend on who you are, but the repression (and oppression) there is definetly real.

Like... Famines, sometimes government made. (To be specific: A Famine where the government COULD step in and alleviate it... but they do not)

[MetalSlimeHunt]

A point to remember: China is in large part being motivated here by a need to prevent NK from maturing their nuclear program. A nuclear NK has no need of China's military protection, and China will lose most leverage they have over NK without that.

I wonder if the stories about how badly the North Koreans are under the government regime are... Are true or just propaganda.

The specifics depend on who you are, but the repression (and oppression) there is definetly real.

Like... Famines, sometimes government made. (To be specific: A Famine where the government COULD step in and alleviate it... but they do not)

You're never going to get a very clear answer to that, unless someone was stupid enough to write down "we will deal with this growing dissent by the removal of food supplies from provinces X, Y, and Z for a period of six years, reported through state media as caused by rice blight". Which is unlikely. There are obviously actions NK could have taken to alleviate the 90s famine, but the level at which they become consciously culpable for not taking those actions is a subjective question.

[wierd]

RedKing:  The EU has just been asking not for the reunification of the korean state-- but just for Glorious Leader to stop playing with nuclear dildos.  The US ambassadors have been asking the same thing, but admittedly with hidden barbs toward unification.

China does not want unification, but that does not prevent them from seriously reprimanding glorious leader for his nuclear dildo fetish.  All this time, they have steadfastly refused to perform that ambasadorial function, when only they could have any success of doing it.  So, my statement stands.


Here is the ink to that docu, btw.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlJUGZPanB8

[Neonivek]

Other than being good for the North Korean people (IF the info is true... which I am ENTIRELY open to it just being propaganda)... What would be bad about unification?

[wierd]

Public health, infrastructure, and educational nightmare for highly urban SK.
Diplomatic and military nightmare for China.

[Neonivek]

I believe even SK doesn't quite want to help North Korea anymore... and are perfectly willing to let them rot.

[RedKing]

@RedKing: I guess they could come to an agreement that the US troop stuff stay in the southern part? Since they definetly ain't leaving, but being there is better than right on the border.

Yeah, I dunno. During actual hostilities, there would have to be some kind of coordination, and I'm sure the northernmost portion would be considered a no-go zone for Americans, which we'd probably agree to as long as the PLA made sure to occupy and pacify that territory. If it became a safe haven for DPRK forces then all bets would be off, which would be bad.

Post-conflict, I think the best answer would be reunification, but jesus the cost....I think the US and China would have to jointly invest hundreds of billions to keep Seoul from going bankrupt. I mean, German reunification was expensive, and that was with an East Germany that still had basic infrastructure and industry in place. Absorbing a war-torn North Korea could completely bankrupt South Korea. Maybe with some treaty that prohibits either China or the US from basing any military forces there? Seoul is relatively pro-Beijing and pro-Washington, so I think they could play that arrangement smartly and profit from being ostensibly neutral.

No matter how you swing it, military action in North Korea would be costly as fuck for the United States. It might make us look fondly on the Iraq War. 


@wierd: It's completely disingenuous to say that China hasn't criticized North Korea for its actions. That's Trump bullshit.
And the last time they officially did so (in May), North Korea fired back and sent signals that they felt like they didn't necessarily need Big Bro Beijing anymore. Which is also probably factoring into China's reaction here.

They've also halted shipments of coal and oil to NK on multiple occasions in the last 18 months, largely correlated to missile tests. My feeling on this is that China is trying to 'domesticate' them through increased trade ties. That approach has worked very well to tamp down tensions with Taiwan. But because of NK's idiosyncratic despotic government, it doesn't necessarily work as well there.

I believe even SK doesn't quite want to help North Korea anymore... and are perfectly willing to let them rot.

You'd be wrong there.