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[smjjames]

I agree that it should be edited to be not terrible, but I don't think it's editable in the current form with Obama repeal in it because, well, the Dems don't want it to be repealed.

It'll still have to get through the House again, and the House bill was mainly aiming for repeal. So, it remains to be seen whether it can get through there.

[Neonivek]

We'll see. McCain likes his rebel reputation, but this can easily just be a set up to a Republican line vote and blaming the Democrats for "refusing to compromise" when the bill is disastrous. Dude's an operator, that he's only got a few months to live doesn't change that.

Ohh... what an anti-twist.

[RedKing]

Senate, by M. Night Shyamalan.

Pence had to break the tie to begin debate.
From my understanding, the first thing on the table will be an amendment that would completely repeal the ACA (Rand Paul's demand in order for him to vote to begin debate). This will fail.

Then, the Ted Cruz amendment, letting insurers offer non-ACA compliant plans. This too, will fail.

Then the original Senate/McConnell bill, which will also likely fail.

Then the "skinny" repeal, which only strips out the individual and employer mandates. This will likely fail as well.

After that (and possibly in between that), Senators are free to offer any fucking amendments they want. I'm hoping to see at least somebody offer a single-payer amendment, just to fuck with the GOP and so the Dems can claim, "Hey, we offered ideas, you didn't want them."

The crux of the problem is that no substantial change is going to be brutal enough to satisfy the hard right wing, and simultaneously merciful enough to satisfy the moderates. The Democrats are likely to vote against anything and everything that gets suggested. Which will leave the Senate exhausted and bitter at each other, and nothing accomplished.

[smjjames]

You can bet that Sanders will bring single-payer up at least once.

Next up is tax reform, which will be a bit easier ideologically, but harder because of everything involved, and it's been 30 years since the last major tax reform, which is for a reason. Then there's the budget stuff, debt limit, and funding the government.

[RedKing]

I think the debt ceiling and budget debates will probably take precedence over tax reform.

Will be interesting (and by interesting, I mean "ha ha okay, are we all going to die?") to see if the hard-right wing of the GOP goes for another threatened shutdown/default rather than raising the debt ceiling. Lot easier to threaten that when the guy from the other party is running the show. Trump has to know that it would be disastrous to have a default or shutdown on his watch.

And his cultists, the same ones that were chanting "SHUT IT DOWN" last few times we were at this precipice, will do some amazing mental gymnastics to justify why it's totally different this time, and we should raise the debt ceiling without delay, because HER EMAILS.

[smjjames]

I think the debt ceiling and budget debates will probably take precedence over tax reform.

Will be interesting (and by interesting, I mean "ha ha okay, are we all going to die?") to see if the hard-right wing of the GOP goes for another threatened shutdown/default rather than raising the debt ceiling. Lot easier to threaten that when the guy from the other party is running the show. Trump has to know that it would be disastrous to have a default or shutdown on his watch.

Eh, I doubt that he knows the full implications of a default because his line of thinking probably goes bankruptcy=GOOD bankruptcy=default=GOOD. Some of his staff would certainly try to talk him out of it, and as for a shutdown, that's all on Congress. Though he has called for a "good shutdown", whatever that means.

Also, I've read that the Freedom Caucaus (most of the guys that did the shutdown last time) have decided that it was a bad strategy last time. Dunno about the debt ceiling lession, though most Congressmembers REALLY DO NOT want to go default if they can avoid it. Buuut, Trump still has to sign off on the thing that raises the debt ceiling, so, that adds even more uncertianity. It's also that they keep playing chicken with the debt ceiling and someday they're going to miscalculate.

[misko27]

You know, it's damn impressive how far Obamacare repeal has moved purely with the "Well, we'll fix it at the next step" line of argument. It's a testament to how badly they really, really want this to work. But whether that can actually get you over the hump? That remains to be seen.

And as for the debt-ceiling, I have hope (if not exactly faith) in the reasonable people in Trump's cabinet to pressure him to not personally send the country into a fiscal tailspin for no damn reason. Shutdown... I don't know. Who knows what goes on in their heads.

[Frumple]

I'unno, anyone know if the betting critters are placing odds on a default? What they look like/are trending towards if it does exist would be neat to know, too.

[scriver]

Like I'm not already?

If I remember my you correctly, arent you one of the people watching those watch list in the first place?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I particularly want Sanders to bring up single-payer with that Trump quote endorsing it. He knows about that, he talked about it on the news at least once.

And as for the debt-ceiling, I have hope (if not exactly faith) in the reasonable people in Trump's cabinet to pressure him to not personally send the country into a fiscal tailspin for no damn reason. Shutdown... I don't know. Who knows what goes on in their heads.

Yeah, he'll probably be held back by the influence from guys like Comey...ooh....or maybe Spicer, cause he...ahh....well there's always the statesman experience from Sessions and...um....Tillerson's a guy he respects and...err....

McMaster?

Mattis?

_^Bannon?

I'unno, anyone know if the betting critters are placing odds on a default? What they look like/are trending towards if it does exist would be neat to know, too.

I looked, and despite finding odds for things like Trump having hair surgery (2/1), no odds on a sovereign default. Or any major economic events, really.

[smjjames]

I'unno, anyone know if the betting critters are placing odds on a default? What they look like/are trending towards if it does exist would be neat to know, too.

I'd probably keep an eye on the stock market, which will definetly start panicking if it looks like we might go default.

The problem is less that there's a risk of default, enough congressmembers don't wish that, and more that they've been playing chicken with it.

[EnigmaticHat]

I'unno, anyone know if the betting critters are placing odds on a default? What they look like/are trending towards if it does exist would be neat to know, too.

I looked, and despite finding odds for things like Trump having hair surgery (2/1), no odds on a sovereign default. Or any major economic events, really.

If they want to bet on a default they've already got the stock market.

Fakedit: that is a really specific ninja

[RedKing]

Like I'm not already?

If I remember my you correctly, arent you one of the people watching those watch list in the first place?

Not for a few years now, thank the gods.


Trump stated again today that he is "very disappointed" in AG Sessions. When asked if he wants the Attorney General to resign, he merely repeated that he was "very disappointed" in him. My assumption is that he followed this with a directive for the AG to "go to his room" and "think long and hard about what you've done". No word yet on whether the Attorney General is grounded and/or lost his TV privileges.

[smjjames]

DoE Secretary Rick Perry got pranked in a fake interview by two Russian guys.

Where I originally found it.

Just something funny.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Holy shit, Rick Perry is the Secretary of the Department of Energy.

I completely forgot. His very existence in that position would be the memetastic chair for any other administration. That...really puts things into perspective.