You know, I am fairly certain that the only reason our military has remained as large as it has is due to the World Trade Center attacks. Someone who was older at the time may have a different opinion, but as far as I can see, the attacks essentially gave the US an enemy to focus on after the Soviet Union fell. Hell, Bush might have turned out a decent president instead of the mess we got, as I've heard that he was more suited to being a domestic-focused, diplomatic president rather than a international-focused, militaristic president.
Granted, was a kid at the time, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.
My impression (being older, but not
necessarily so wise about the world, despite a decade or so of online communications with that (then) rare beast, the fellow Internet user) was indeed that Dubya was working towards introversion and staying out of World Geopolitics. That's with the
possible exception of keeping in mind what to do about his Papa's legacy involvement in Iraq, but not so much more trying to deal with Yugoslavian fallout, keeping mostly out of the way in Israeli/Palestinian agreements, etc, unlike Clinton.
Not so sure that being allowed to do that (in a more genteel 'America First' way, maybe) would have resulted in running down the military, what with all the interesting new 'toys' coming onto the scene (better stealth, autonomy/remote control, etc, the same developments that soon inspired the 2005 film
called 'Stealth', indicating where theory was already heading, if not practice), but it might have led to mothballing outpacing any other form of overseas deployment, just participating in NATO commitments, etc... Letting the UN deal with regional issues of no direct concern to the US, etc. Except maybe for some meddling in Iraq (short of an invasion, perhaps sponsoring a soft-coup and)
(And it would have been a different world. But hard to predict how. And if 911 had never happened, to harden the world's civil security against a repeat of 911, I'm fairly sure that an instead-of-911 incident would have happened elsewhere/elsewhen, because the people with the basic ideas would have still been around, to pass them on in unofficial terrorist mindstorming sessions if not to use them themselves. The only way for it not to happen is if some other terror-meme came to play first. But, anyway, I digress.)
I think Bush Jr could have been a happy-enough non-extreme right-of-(US-)centre leader. Maybe just the one term, maybe still the two. But that's just my impressions, a decade after and thousands of miles away. I certainly don't think he had the "we must
lead the world" (in the supposed 'convention of sort-of-equals' that are the UN, NATO, G7/8/whatever, etc) mindset of one or other He Who Shall Not Be Named person, the choice of whom I shall leave up to you.
But, again, not my area of expertise, just an impression.