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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4245433 times)

palsch

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2910 on: March 01, 2017, 11:18:52 am »

HTTPS Everywhere only turns it on if the site offers but doesn't force it. You can't force a site to use encryption if they aren't set up for it on their end.

It also buys you no privacy for things that are publicly posted against a stored IP address. Still good practice, but for other reasons.
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smjjames

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2911 on: March 01, 2017, 11:27:38 am »

It's pretty doubtful he's going to get reelected, really. Not unless some serious shit changes and he pulls some physical impossibilities out of his ass. He already lost the public election, and that was with all the bullshit the fourth estate was pulling to his benefit. Four years of him to continuing to make an enemy of 'em, on top of failed promise on top of failed promise on top of the lack of the economic miracles he promised to pull out of his ass, when even large chunks of the folks that voted for him have already been expressing significantly poor impressions of his character and competence, and him going out of his way to piss off pretty much every politician (i.e. the boys from home included) he can on the side, and you're not looking at a two term president.

And that's all assuming he survives the four years. Never mind someone killing him, the guy's old and to all appearances at least somewhat rather literally insane. Not the worst situation a POTUS has seen, but it's up there.

Plus the whole Russia thing hasn't been resolved yet and there's plenty of chances for him to do something that is impeachable, should the Dems get the House back.

That and like you mention, he also has to somehow fulfill his voters wants. It's only been a month and a half, there are still years for stuff to happen, both good and bad.
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Telgin

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2912 on: March 01, 2017, 11:56:21 am »

Oh, I want to agree.  So very badly.  But I still remember the week leading up to election day where it seemed obvious that Trump not only was going to lose, but was going to lose badly.

"Man brags about groping women, is later inaugurated as president of the United States."

Unless one of the 3-letter agencies finds video evidence of Trump promising to sell the United States' soul to Russia, I don't think a scandal is going to do him in.

And he's currently running at less than 50% approval, true, but I guess it remains to be seen if the Democrat party fields a viable candidate next election.  If not, we could find ourselves in exactly the same situation as last time.  People might hate Trump, but they can hate everyone else more.  You don't even need a real reason.  An email about pizza will do.  Hatred needs no justification.  Hatred is the Emperor's gift to mankind.

...I seriously need to take a break from reading about politics.  I've found something new to get angry about almost literally every day for two months now.  I've always been pessimistic, but this is a new low for me.
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sluissa

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2913 on: March 01, 2017, 11:59:05 am »

It's not required that a party back an incumbent. That said, I could see Trump getting re elected if the republicans decide they can stand dealing with him and the dems continue on their current path of shaking apart like a dryer with a brick in it. A 3 party election is basically what he needs. But I still say he'll outlive his usefulness to congress and they'll impeach and get rid of him.
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misko27

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2914 on: March 01, 2017, 12:00:47 pm »

So I'll make the unpopular point: Trump was on his discipline last night. That speech was qualitatively different from his other pressconferences or speeches as President. He was still making his same points as usual, but in a way we haven't seen from him. Again, same lack of policy as ever, but put very differently.

One immediate consequence is that since he didn't give Congress any guidelines on Obamacare, they are still stuck.
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Frumple

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2915 on: March 01, 2017, 12:07:42 pm »

Still haven't gotten around to looking at it, tbh. Be mildly surprised if he can manage anything resembling teleprompted for very long, though.
Oh, I want to agree.  So very badly.  But I still remember the week leading up to election day where it seemed obvious that Trump not only was going to lose, but was going to lose badly.
The news was definitely running with that message, in complete defiance of polling information and basic journalism, but those fuckers were fuckers the whole goddamn campaign cycle. I remember a similar thing, and then kenning just how much those bastards can all go right to hell shortly thereafter. What could be taken from that period was FTFE, not anything about the nature of the election or trump's staying power.
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Neonivek

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2916 on: March 01, 2017, 12:09:16 pm »

Yeah but even when they believed Trump was going to lose... They never dropped his chance of winning.

They were spinning a narrative and giving the audience a villain to boo for.
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PTTG??

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2917 on: March 01, 2017, 01:08:32 pm »

It's kind of easy to forget that he did announce his VOICE program last night.

Before I summarize VOICE, let's just talk about why it's bad to compare people to Hitler.

Hitler did many things. A subset of those things were bad, and those actions were so bad and so serious that we can say with confidence that Hitler was a bad person. Nonetheless, Hitler did, on occasion, do things that were neutral, or even good. For instance, he pet his dog. If we were to compare someone who pet their own dog to Adolph Hitler, and say that their actions were similar enough to warrant a broader comparison, then we are making a grave logical error.

All that said, VOICE is not, itself, a neutral action. VOICE is both a bad action itself, and it is designed to enable future bad actions. It also is closely related to an action that Hitler did, which itself was both bad and instrumental for future badness. In that respect, it's possible to compare Trump to Hitler quite reasonably.

Now, we must also establish that immigrants, including illegal immigrants, commit fewer crimes per capita than native-born citizens. Focusing on them as a cause for crime is blatant scapegoating.

VOICE is a program to frequently publish a list of crimes committed by immigrants. Hitler's equivalent targeted crimes committed by Jewish citizens. Even if totally accurate, both lists are clearly dishonest because they give no metric for comparison, and because opponents to the program are forced to argue the merits of convicted criminals, when in fact the true victims are the innocent people in the targeted group who are marked by the propaganda.

In the near future, many people who do not pay close attention to politics and do not think hard about it, will read the list of crimes, will hear about specific terrible crimes on the internet, and will not have the intellectual integrity to avoid falling for the propaganda. And once they have, it will be impossible to pull them out of their broken mindset, because anyone who disagrees with them will, by definition, side with the criminals.
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Sergarr

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2918 on: March 01, 2017, 01:25:03 pm »

(removed)
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 12:27:13 am by Toady One »
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martinuzz

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2919 on: March 01, 2017, 01:56:41 pm »

If you think Trump's immigration policy is terrible, have a look at the Canadians. Even worse:

A 59 year old man, Len van Heest, will most likely be deported to the Netherlands, by Canada.
The man came to Canada 59 years ago, as a 8 month old baby, when his mother emigrated from the Netherlands with her Canadian husband. For some reason, his now 82 year old mother never registered the baby as Canadian 59 years ago, which means he automatically got the Dutch nationality instead. He never bothered to change it himself, considering himself a 'citizen of the planet earth'.

Now the previous, conservative Canadian government made immigration policy more strict. One of the changes was that any foreign national who has ever served more than 6 months in prison, can be deported immediatly.

At age 16, Len is diagnosed with bipolar disorder, and around the same time, gets involved in some criminal activities. He is caught, and sentenced to 9 months juvenile detention.

Then, nearly 40 years later, a new government decides it's time to deport him based on their new law.
After years of legal battle, he is running his final appeal against deportation. It is expected that the supreme court will not alter the verdict of earlier judges.
He and his brother are trying to prevent deportation by claiming his bipolar disorder made him do some stupid things as a kid, and point out that it is illegal to deport a mental patient. Furthermore, Len claims he has had his disorder under control for many years now, and doesn't drink or do drugs like back in the 70s.

Len cannot imagine being deported to a foreign country, of which he has no memory, and of which he does not speak the language. His mother says she doesn't know what she will do without him.

The Dutch embassy already has all the nescessary paperwork in order in case the judge rules against him. The Dutch government has commented that if it has to come to deportation, at the very least mr. Len will be a free man in the Netherlands.
« Last Edit: March 01, 2017, 01:59:55 pm by martinuzz »
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Rolepgeek

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2920 on: March 01, 2017, 02:00:30 pm »

PTTG??, in the interest of credibility, would you be willing to cite some research articles, or better yet, metastudies that backup your claim that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes?

My basic intuition about poverty contributing to crime causes me to be skeptical of the claim, and even more curious about the proposed mechanism or reason. Immigrants from e.g. Britain or Japan are likely to have significant differences in demographical statistics (profession, wealth, number imprisoned, etc.) from either refugees, mexican immigrants (who, yes, make up a large enough portion of immigration in the US to need need a category), or immigrants from India. All of these people have different cultures they are coming from and different situations they are arriving into. I am quite capable of believing that immigrants from India, Britain, and Japan commit crimes at a lower rate than the general US population; many are probably here for relatively high-level work or education, so it makes sense that they would be more careful and/or concerned about staying in the US compared to people who can't be deported because they have been citizens of the US for their entire lives. Immigrants from Mexico I can fairly well see very similarly, the major difference being the professions, but also probably having a family to be worried about taking care of a fair portion of the time as well; much easier to bring your family up a few hundred miles than several thousand, and if you plan to not go back to Mexico, there's more reason to.

On the other hand, immigrants from basically anywhere that's wartorn, or extremely poor but with a significant U.S. presence in the recent past, is probably in a different situation. They come primarily to escape poverty, but perhaps with minimal idea of how to accomplish that other than 'work in America'. They are of a completely different culture - India is largely Hindu but had Britain occupation for so long that they are by no means unfamiliar with Anglo/Western culture (in the sense of English speaking countries). Mexico and Britain are both still largely Christian nations. And yes, religion, especially the religion of your background home, has a huge influence on culture. Most Islamic countries don't have the same exposure to western culture that Japan or India does. Culture shock is a thing, a large chunk of the U.S. is fairly obviously hostile to Muslim immigrants, and crime is already on the margins so slight changes like that can and likely will affect it. Then if you further consider how often black people are impacted by the system and mandatory minimums, artificially inflating the crime rate of the general population (particularly if you go by crimes per 100,000 or prison population per 100,000 rather than violent offenders per 100,000), then you may get something else entirely.

Do remember though, that arguments are not soldiers; I'm not trying to support Trump, the righr, and certainly not VOICE (media already distorts our view of how common crimes are plenty) by asking you to back up your claim. Nor do I think that marginal increases in crime rate justify prejudicial treatment or banning certain countries. I don't think that immigration is all sunshine and roses, but it's certainly not going to bring about the fall of the United States of America(and on net it's probably positive atm).

So yeah, that list is horrifying and I was proven so very wrong about Trump. Goddamnit. He's just as bad as people were worried he would be. I was hoping so badly that he would do an about-face after he won.
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redwallzyl

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2921 on: March 01, 2017, 02:20:19 pm »

So I'll make the unpopular point: Trump was on his discipline last night. That speech was qualitatively different from his other pressconferences or speeches as President. He was still making his same points as usual, but in a way we haven't seen from him. Again, same lack of policy as ever, but put very differently.

One immediate consequence is that since he didn't give Congress any guidelines on Obamacare, they are still stuck.
it will precisely as long as he is away from his Twitter account.
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Rolepgeek

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2922 on: March 01, 2017, 02:39:35 pm »

one, two
Those cite the same studies, and they focus on Hispanic/Mexican immigration. Which is fair, it's the largest amount. But as they mention in the first one, after serving their sentence, immigrants are deported, which greatly reduced the chance of them being repeat offenders, and if you look at crime data in general, repeat offenders is one of the highest risk factors for whether someone will commit a crime, which makes it hard to judge based on percentage of population incarcerated. But overall I'll accept the conclusion/premise that Hispanic immigrants are less likely to commit crimes.

But that wasn't really the group I was asking about.
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Neonivek

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2923 on: March 01, 2017, 03:10:12 pm »

Mind you, second generation immigrants are US citizens.
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread: Trump Immigration Boogaloo edition
« Reply #2924 on: March 01, 2017, 05:26:14 pm »

https://yro.slashdot.org/story/17/03/01/2114213/software-engineer-detained-at-jfk-given-test-to-prove-hes-an-engineer

Quote
Celestine Omin, a software engineer at Andela -- a tech startup that connects developers in Africa with U.S employers -- had a particularly unwelcoming reception when he deplaned at John F. Kennedy Airport and was given a test to prove he was actually a software engineer. A LinkedIn post detailing Omin's challenging experience explained that upon landing in New York after spending 24 miserable hours on a Qatar Airways flight, he was given some trouble about the short-term visa he obtained for his trip. According to the post, an unprepared and exhausted Omin waited in the airport for approximately 20 minutes before being questioned by a Customs and Border Protection officer about his occupation. After several questions were asked, he was reportedly brought to a small room and told to sit down, where he was left for another hour before another customs officer entered and resumed grilling him. Omin was instructed to answer the following questions: "Write a function to check if a Binary Search Tree is balanced," and "What is an abstract class, and why do you need it."

Sheesh, those are shitty questions from those whiteboard coder interviews. Now you need to know them to get into the USA.
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