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[McTraveller]

Fun facts from the actuarial tables for males:
Trump is 77.
Biden is 81.

Age	Probability of death in 1 year	Expected years till death (50th percentile)
77	4.9%	9.3
80	6.6%	7.7
81	7.2%	7.2
82	8.0%	6.8
83	8.8%	6.3
84	9.8%	5.9
85	10.9%	5.5
86	12.1%	5.1
87	13.4%	4.7
88	14.8%	4.3
89	16.4%	4.0

[Bumber]

Practical question: Do y'all have a doomsday plan for dealing with the Trump-led lynchings that'll follow his election?

Same plan for dealing with the lynchings after his first election, when everybody moved to Canada?

[Starver]

89	16.4%	4.0

Sounds like a good upper-cutoff age to start a single term of presidency, to not have better than evens chance of death-in-office...

(Though I don't know if you drew on the acturarial tables for the socioeconomic-specific subset of population. Rich(-or-feigned-rich) whiteguys, etcz with guaranteed treatment available to deal with most medical emergencies. Or the sub-subset of those that are presidents, perhaps somewhat more prone to non-accidental injuries.)


I wouldn't mind moving to Canada, actually, if there was ever a reason for it to be necessary (and proportionally more apt than any other choice). I'd probably choose a bit of it more southerly than my current locale[1], though still expect harsher winters (and far too uncomfortably warm hot-spells)...

[1] Checking this list, it looks like it might be any of those cities! But specifically looking for "northernmost city in Canada" suggests they missed at least one place that would out-north even a Shetlander. As expected.

[anewaname]

So if age-discrimination is your thing, bernie is a better choice than either trump or biden... excellent!

[Bumber]

https://apnews.com/article/classified-documents-biden-trump-special-counsel-b5589ea8f066ede51c8138665f108f7a

Hur found that on at least three occasions during interviews with his ghostwriter, Biden read aloud from classified parts from his notebooks "nearly verbatim."

Biden shared classified information with his ghostwriter.

To bring charges, Hur said prosecutors would have to rely on a comment that Biden had made to his ghostwriter in 2017 — when Biden was a private citizen and living in Virginia — that he had "just found" classified documents downstairs.

But Hur said Biden could convince some jurors his actions weren’t willful by arguing, for example, that he forgot about the documents shortly after finding them in 2017.

2017. That's quite a few years before the documents were "discovered" in 2021 and "immediately turned over", isn't it? So that lie is now debunked.

Maybe Trump "forgot" he still had classified docs shortly before his lawyers said everything had been turned over? Don't think that's going to fly.

"During our interview of him, Mr. Biden was emphatic, declaring that his notebooks are 'my property' and that 'every president before me has done the exact same thing,' that is, kept handwritten classified materials after leaving office," the report said.

Biden hadn't been president as of 2017. He was a VP and Senator. He isn't entitled to this defense. There is precisely zero excuse for documents dating back to his time as Senator, which had no business ever leaving a SCIF.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/09/politics/fact-check-biden-makes-three-false-claims-about-his-handling-of-classified-information/index.html

Hur wrote that Biden "should have known" that as a private citizen as of 2017, "he was not permitted to keep handwritten notes about the President’s Daily Brief and other classified information in unlocked drawers in his home."

No shit.

Hur reported the discovery of documents in Biden’s possession that had markings identifying them as "Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information," a very high level of classification – plus handwritten notebooks from Biden’s time as vice president that weren’t marked as classified but that "contain information that remains classified up to the Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information level."

For example, Hur wrote, the open box in Biden’s garage contained an Afghanistan-related memo from the National Security Adviser to President Barack Obama in 2009 marked "TOP SECRET/SCI" (Sensitive Compartmented Information). Hur wrote that experts in the intelligence community said the document contains "highly sensitive information about the military programs of the United States and a foreign government. The unauthorized disclosure of this information, both today and in 2017 when Mr. Biden was no longer vice president, reasonably could be expected to cause exceptionally grave damage to the national security."

TOP SECRET. Just like Trump?

Joe's garage is more secure than a padlocked room in Mar-a-lago, though. That's where Joe keeps his Corvette!

Hur did find, however, that Biden "at times" tried to avoid sharing classified information, by stopping at or skipping over certain material from the notebooks. And he wrote that "the evidence does not show that when Mr. Biden shared the specific passages with his ghostwriter, Mr. Biden knew the passages were classified and intended to share classified information."

Oh, look, Biden knew some of what he had was classified! He knew what he was doing when he did it. His mental state in 2024 isn't relevant for this.

The options here seem to be 25th Amendment or prosecution. I don't see how Biden can avoid both and claim a functioning, non-partisan justice system.

[McTraveller]

So long as the law is applied equally, sure.  I would appreciate a ballot without either of them on it.

[Bumber]

So long as the law is applied equally, sure.

Yeah, but it's not. The special counsel already announced no charges. The reason seems to be that a DC jury wouldn't convict him, so it won't be attempted.

[Maximum Spin]

25th amendment §4 removal for incapacity (or §3 voluntary withdrawal) hilariously doesn't affect a president's future eligibility, because it was written to cover any case of potential inability to discharge duties, whether permanent or temporary.

So you're simply getting a ballot with both of them regardless.

[Bumber]

You'd need an impeachment, but there'd obviously be no conviction in the Senate (whether for the documents or some kind of made up incompetency charge.)

And while we're on about the ballot, some highlights from yesterday's Supreme Court hearing:

Justice Thomas: 14th Amendment applying to president would've allowed the South to disqualify presidential candidates from the North.

Justice Kagan: 14th Amendment is designed to take power away from states, not give them more power.

President not likely considered "officer" in context of 14th because:
1. President commissions all "officers". President can't appoint themselves.
2. Something about Congress not being able to hold other offices, yet not excluded from being Speaker or w/e. Not everyone who holds office is an officer. It's a mess.
3. Despite obvious ambiguity, President isn't specifically listed with the others, was listed in earlier drafts.

14th Amendment disqualification is different from other presidential qualifications because it can be waived with 2/3rds vote. States can't block candidate from running by assuming it won't be waived, the same way they can't block a candidate based on current residency (which they can change just before being sworn in,) or an under-aged candidate who will be of age upon taking office.

[hector13]

Hur also said there were significant differences in how Biden and Trump dealt with things. Trump showed off the classified material to people at parties as well as tried to hide the fact he had classified documents and after his lawyer said there were no more at Mar-a-Lago, investigators found over a hundred more on later searches, while Biden notified investigators of his and handed them back, and allowed investigators to search his properties for more, in much the same way Mike Pence did.

https://apnews.com/article/classified-documents-biden-trump-special-counsel-b5589ea8f066ede51c8138665f108f7a

To be charged and prosecuted, willfulness needs to be proven, which is stupid, but that’s how it is. It’s much more difficult to prove willfulness from someone who voluntary notified the authorities they had documents than someone who took actions to hide the fact he had them.

[Bumber]

Hur also said there were significant differences in how Biden and Trump dealt with things. Trump showed off the classified material to people at parties as well as tried to hide the fact he had classified documents and after his lawyer said there were no more at Mar-a-Lago, investigators found over a hundred more on later searches, while Biden notified investigators of his and handed them back, and allowed investigators to search his properties for more, in much the same way Mike Pence did.

https://apnews.com/article/classified-documents-biden-trump-special-counsel-b5589ea8f066ede51c8138665f108f7a

To be charged and prosecuted, willfulness needs to be proven, which is stupid, but that’s how it is. It’s much more difficult to prove willfulness from someone who voluntary notified the authorities they had documents than someone who took actions to hide the fact he had them.

I used that article in my post for those exact points. Joe shared the classified documents with his ghostwriter. Joe willfully withheld the documents from at least 2017 to 2021. Try to keep up.

[Maximum Spin]

You'd need an impeachment, but there'd obviously be no conviction in the Senate (whether for the documents or some kind of made up incompetency charge.)

The Constitution doesn't even provide for impeachment to bar reelection as President - that question would definitely go to the Supreme Court. Even in the ordinary case of impeachment of lesser executive officials, impeachment (I mean, in the sense of conviction) doesn't automatically bar them from re-election or re-appointment to the previous office under current procedure, and the Senate has to decide whether to apply that additional punishment in a separate vote. I think the most reasonable interpretation would be that Congress does not have that power over Presidential election. The fundamental question would be whether the position of President is an Office under the United States, which is being actively argued in Trump's 14A case - so we'll probably have a better understanding of the Supreme Court's position on this soon. However, the Constitution pretty clearly provides that such Offices are under the authority of the President, so the Presidency cannot reasonably be one itself, in my opinion.

[Bumber]

The Constitution doesn't even provide for impeachment to bar reelection as President - that question would definitely go to the Supreme Court. Even in the ordinary case of impeachment of lesser executive officials, impeachment (I mean, in the sense of conviction) doesn't automatically bar them from re-election or re-appointment to the previous office under current procedure, and the Senate has to decide whether to apply that additional punishment in a separate vote. I think the most reasonable interpretation would be that Congress does not have that power over Presidential election.

This was argued in the 2nd Trump impeachment. Seems like Democrats would have to concede that it does, or admit that that was theater.

[Maximum Spin]

The Constitution doesn't even provide for impeachment to bar reelection as President - that question would definitely go to the Supreme Court. Even in the ordinary case of impeachment of lesser executive officials, impeachment (I mean, in the sense of conviction) doesn't automatically bar them from re-election or re-appointment to the previous office under current procedure, and the Senate has to decide whether to apply that additional punishment in a separate vote. I think the most reasonable interpretation would be that Congress does not have that power over Presidential election.

This was argued in the 2nd Trump impeachment. Seems like Democrats would have to concede that it does, or admit that that was theater.

It's not up to Congress (or any other group of 'Democrats') to decide, but yes, that was most likely theater, which is why nobody had ever bothered to try impeaching a President not currently in office before.

[hector13]

Hur also said there were significant differences in how Biden and Trump dealt with things. Trump showed off the classified material to people at parties as well as tried to hide the fact he had classified documents and after his lawyer said there were no more at Mar-a-Lago, investigators found over a hundred more on later searches, while Biden notified investigators of his and handed them back, and allowed investigators to search his properties for more, in much the same way Mike Pence did.

https://apnews.com/article/classified-documents-biden-trump-special-counsel-b5589ea8f066ede51c8138665f108f7a

To be charged and prosecuted, willfulness needs to be proven, which is stupid, but that’s how it is. It’s much more difficult to prove willfulness from someone who voluntary notified the authorities they had documents than someone who took actions to hide the fact he had them.

I used that article in my post for those exact points. Joe shared the classified documents with his ghostwriter. Joe willfully withheld the documents from at least 2017 to 2021. Try to keep up.

He read from his notebooks that he (quite reasonably) believed to be his property, not documents that should have been handed to the National Archives.

I’m not the one arguing against the conclusion of the special counsel who has all the information, guy.

Heck, the article tells you why things aren’t going down the way you want them to.