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[delphonso]

I don't think Trump has the inertia or lasting power to win again. I have to assume a lot of Republicans are aware of that. I think we'll see something where Trump doesn't/can't run and instead we have 4 Republican candidates all claiming to be the 'next Trump'.

[JoshuaFH]

I can only hope that the Republican party's sins catch up to them, and they devolve into constant infighting, and because nobody else than Trump has the bizarre monkey's paw power over the gullible masses, their own constituents will eat them alive as they start to waffle and show weakness, destroying anything that could possibly unify them. This would naturally lead to the decline and dissolution of the Republican Party in totality, finally allowing sanity to exist in politics again.

[Schmaven]

Unfortunately, I don't think sanity has ever existed in politics.  One can dream though

[nenjin]

We're not out of shenanigans territory with the mid-terms yet.

"House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he is calling transition teams for the House majority after he announced his bid to become speakers. The announcement comes before election political control of the House has been settled."

I don't know enough about the process to know if he's just being embarrassingly ambitious or there's anything that's actually going to happen. I assume the House Majority has to sign off on the transition.

[hector13]

I think what happens is Trump runs and then a number of other candidates try to out-Trump him, resulting in everyone attacking each other and being unable to unify the party around any one candidate and they implode.

Trump has already tried to intimidate DeSantis out of the running, because the only way he knows how to negotiate is to bully.

[JoshuaFH]

I think they've caught on that allowing Trump to run again means he'll be more brazen and bold than ever in trying to perform a coup on the government and make himself President For Life. Because if that happens, that's when the culling starts, and all the unnecessary members of the party will get disappeared, along with all opposition of any kind. They either need to beat him to the chase and make themselves dictator, or cockblock him entirely, otherwise they'll get eaten up by the Fascist beast that they themselves helped to create.

[hector13]

They won’t stop him, which actually makes it quite interesting if he doesn’t win the candidacy for the Republicans…

Will he just start his own party like he did when he got kicked off Twitter?

[Dostoevsky]

We're not out of shenanigans territory with the mid-terms yet.

"House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced that he is calling transition teams for the House majority after he announced his bid to become speakers. The announcement comes before election political control of the House has been settled."

I don't know enough about the process to know if he's just being embarrassingly ambitious or there's anything that's actually going to happen. I assume the House Majority has to sign off on the transition.

Eh, nothing really abnormal about this. The speaker is chosen by the House by a vote at the start of a congress, and theoretically anyone can run, so this is more declaring his confidence that he'll have the votes than anything else. That will effectively require both a Republican majority and him having the support of nearly all those Republicans, especially given the narrow majority he's likely to have. So expect a lot of extracted concessions from folks like Jim Jordan.

Unlike with a presidency there isn't really a long & formal transition process.

[Vector]

One thing that I'm legitimately wondering right now is whether deplatforming Trump helped reduce the anger... I know some folks in DC are trying to find a good explanation for things so far, so maybe we'll get a better picture later.

For me the main thing is that they removed him from the largest, establishment-legitimized town square of the day so that recruitment from undecided masses is harder. There is a lot more effort to inoculate social networks from extremist ideas of various forms and a lot more analysis of when to deplatform someone vs. negotiate.

For him to reach people directly there needs to be boots on the ground aggressively turning people's minds outside of HQ (Truth Social, etc.) and then signing them up somewhere that he can access. But we're also more careful now about protecting minors and outlining adult vs. minor-inclusive web spaces.

And I guess even more importantly, we are more able now to talk about how white people do often vote in a way that protects the interests of whiteness as opposed to just claiming that "it's all those rural people with no college degrees out there who do all the racism and we suburbians just have no idea what's happening or why the whole HOA seems to have had their hand slip and pull the lever for Trump."

My interracial family (I'm from the white part, but the "clan" that is our basic family unit is white and Latino) is from a rural area (think marijuana and guns) and on some level that last point above does matter a lot in the whole realm of grievance politics. There were all of these fucking articles back in 2014 - 2016 about how much rural people suck for doin' all the racism and like, yeah, not gonna argue with you, rural whites do a lot of racism. But city and suburban whites do plenty enough of racism too as it turns out and going all "Oh it's not US, it's all the poors over there, come join our city so we can take a big ol dump on you from close instead of far away and also destroy your life with rent" doesn't make a person so inclined to come out and vote for you, cuz who knows what you're gonna try on us next, running around being irresponsible and lying.

[Travis Bickle]

"Trump is going to cause the Republican Party to fracture and eventually dissolve."
"Trump is going to lose the primary and run third-party and split the vote."

I feel like I just stepped out of a time machine and into February of 2016; all we need at this point is an issue of National Review specifically condemning him. It's still only 2022 and as far as I'm concerned the reports of Trump's death are highly exaggerated.

[Vector]

A critical difference is that in 2016 we hadn't actually seen what he would do as a politician yet.

Sure, there's lots of room for things to change from how they are today.

[hector13]

Trump is already attacking Republican’s likely to run against him, in much the same way he was throwing around his nonsense about electoral fraud months before the election in 2020.

He’s getting freaked he’ll lose already.

[Travis Bickle]

He’s getting freaked he’ll lose already.

Maybe. As it stands right now he's more or less guaranteed to declare himself a candidate in the 2024 election (it was probably a good idea on his part to wait until the midterms were done before making any sort of announcement, either by plan or just in retrospect) whereas the only other Republican with any sort of national enthusiasm behind him is DeSantis, who has yet to concretely indicate an intent to run. Frankly I don't doubt that there are people in the party who want Trump primaried but I think we won't see how successful they'll be until Iowa and New Hampshire.

[delphonso]

If Trump does run, I think we can expect the Republicans to run basically no opposition. Something like the whole Biden vs Bloomberg thing, at most. That's pretty much the best way to set him up for a victory.

[JoshuaFH]

edit: I'll excuse myself, I'm being pointlessly angry.