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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4226244 times)

wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38790 on: August 20, 2020, 05:26:18 am »

That's the schtick with a natural disaster. It affects everyone.  (it is unironically that very impartiality that makes it a fair judge and arbiter of such a population reduction, vs a purely political purge, engineered by people.)

The question is if it affects everyone proportionally.  So far, (at least before the HHS took over reporting and started obviously skewing data) it appears as if the stupid are suffering much more than the non-stupid.

« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 05:31:29 am by wierd »
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NJW2000

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38791 on: August 20, 2020, 05:43:02 am »

That's the schtick with a natural disaster. It affects everyone.

The question is if it affects everyone proportionally.  So far, (at least before the HHS took over reporting and started obviously skewing data) it appears as if the stupid are suffering much more than the non-stupid.


And the disadvantaged much more than the non-disadvantaged.

PoC just need to stay away from the afore mentioned stupid racist white fucks, who are too busy killing themselves and each other with their brand of denialist stupidity.  Let them continue to have dinner parties, go to their racist church gatherings and sing without masks on-- Nature will deal with them accordingly


Black and minority people don't seem to have any genetic predisposition towards a worse covid response, as far as I can tell from googling. They die more because they're poorer, can't work from home or quit their jobs, and are more likely to be key workers. Can't tell those people to just avoid the idiots who'd sooner die than wear a mask - the problem is that they have no real choice but to work at risk of covid. And the more idiots there are than don't wear masks, the more at risk the key workers will be.

When the stupid rich/privileged screw themselves over, they tend to drag the poor down with them. I'm hoping the boomers and denialists act smarter, just not necessarily for their sake's.

/rant
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38792 on: August 20, 2020, 05:54:30 am »

You are misunderstanding a bit there.

It is not "YAY! Plague!!".

It is "At least there is a tangible signal there is a silver lining for the survivors."

There are a lot more poor people than rich; the plague vastly impacts the rich more than the poor, even with higher total numbers. Total percentages of population affected are more important in that capacity. 
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Maximum Spin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38793 on: August 20, 2020, 06:21:18 am »

go lick some doorknobs then champ?
Honestly, good news for doorknob fetishists: Most diseases you can catch by licking do not survive long on dry surfaces, and typical doorknobs are modestly antiseptic. It's really one of the safer things to lick.

You probably think it's a silly point but it actually ties in pretty well: Sad people tend to assume that everything is bad, but actually, most things are basically okay.
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38794 on: August 20, 2020, 07:07:48 am »

That's the schtick with a natural disaster. It affects everyone.  (it is unironically that very impartiality that makes it a fair judge and arbiter of such a population reduction, vs a purely political purge, engineered by people.)


(I always mostly wondered about all the occupants of that helicopter that Nick Fury saw as thongs unfolded. All of them.  I mean we can assume the pilot went (then... later, where? - based upon the marching band, there might be an issue), maybe passengers (ditto). But any that didn't... they fall, but thus explicitly do not fall within the stipulation of 'later'. There are other questions, but that's my biggest one.)


It is said that a 'fortuitous' recurrence of the Black Death, coinciding with Elizabeth I's effort to de-Restore cousin Mary's Restoration, helped to kill off the die-hard/blow-hard senior clergy and led to to the more moderate nature of Anglicism, as well as suppressing hold-out Catholicism in the realm.  That was a demographic bias, though, and I'm not sure we can't say similar for this case (but different).  And who knows what would have happened if certain lordlings of the time hadn't been extinguished and thus ended their influential family's line.  Coin-flipping is gambling, whichever way you look at it.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 07:11:14 am by Starver »
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38795 on: August 20, 2020, 07:44:23 am »

That's the schtick with a natural disaster. It affects everyone.  (it is unironically that very impartiality that makes it a fair judge and arbiter of such a population reduction, vs a purely political purge, engineered by people.)


(I always mostly wondered about all the occupants of that helicopter that Nick Fury saw as thongs unfolded. All of them.  I mean we can assume the pilot went (then... later, where? - based upon the marching band, there might be an issue), maybe passengers (ditto). But any that didn't... they fall, but thus explicitly do not fall within the stipulation of 'later'. There are other questions, but that's my biggest one.)


It is said that a 'fortuitous' recurrence of the Black Death, coinciding with Elizabeth I's effort to de-Restore cousin Mary's Restoration, helped to kill off the die-hard/blow-hard senior clergy and led to to the more moderate nature of Anglicism, as well as suppressing hold-out Catholicism in the realm.  That was a demographic bias, though, and I'm not sure we can't say similar for this case (but different).  And who knows what would have happened if certain lordlings of the time hadn't been extinguished and thus ended their influential family's line.  Coin-flipping is gambling, whichever way you look at it.

Only one problem with that analogy; Thanos' snap was not a natural disaster. It was an engineered disaster, that just did not care about collateral, only that 50% of total population went poof. (literally poof.) In this case, the disaster happened as a result of natural consequences, is not artificially imposed, and there are things you can do to protect yourself and others.  Functionally, they are not even equivalent at any level.

In fact, we are having this discussion about it BECAUSE there are things you can do to protect yourself and others, that the afore mentioned demographic simply refuse to do, because "FREEDOMS!!". (but mostly denial.)

The assertion is:

People who take the steps to mitigate contracting it, and further take masures to prevent the spread of the pathogen will do those things; when they do contract it, it has a higher probability of dead-ending with them, because they take those precautions and do things right.  With the demographic that does not, and willfully does not, the pathogen spreads exponentially. The people those people tend to be around, tend to be like-minded people who are likewise not self-isolating (which is WHY they are in contact with them, in most cases!), and who will likewise spread it to all their like minded friends. (which is why it spreads exponentially.)

Due to this combination of factors, while people who do everything right, and are very socially mindful, will indeed contract it, and a good portion of those will either die or suffer lasting harm from the infection, VAAAASSTLY MORE will experience death and permanent injury from the exponential growth demographic.  It is the negative behaviors of the exponential growth demographic that are actively contributing to their deaths or later suffering-- Simply by altering their behaviors, they too could experience the more linear infection rates, rather than the exponential one, but they refuse to acknowledge this as fact, and so experience the exponential curve.

The counter-argument is that the socially moronic demographic, being socially moronic, will result in vastly more people who are doing everything right ending up getting sick, and having lasting damage or death as a consequence-- That is simply true. No contest.  However, the implication is that you will get the stupid demographic to stop being stupid. You won't, that's just pissing into the wind.  Everything that could possibly be done, short of hogtieing them and barricading them into their damn houses, has been done. They continue to be stupid. Since you cannot fix stupid, you should instead look for whatever rays of light can pierce that dark shadow.  That is exactly what MS is doing here.

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Maximum Spin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38796 on: August 20, 2020, 07:59:31 am »

That's a bit more pessimistic than I would put it — so far, the disease seems frankly amenable to targeting the stupid, as the effect of basic precautions on preventing infection has been extremely strong. Even if people around you are behaving foolishly, you can still take precautions to reduce your own risk to the point that it is unlikely you will catch it from them even as they spread it to each other. Overwhelmingly, the disease has affected people who failed to take basic precautions. There is no such thing as no risk, but as far as plagues go this one is pretty tame.
Still, overall, yes, this is exactly what I'm getting at.
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Starver

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38797 on: August 20, 2020, 08:00:08 am »

Only one problem with that analogy;
...is that obviously it was not explained well.

(Assertion: Natural disaster is impartial, consciously-initiated one is biased.  Counter-proposal: A consciously-initiated one that is[1] impartial, a natural one that was not. Reality: You'd be hard pressed to find anything that is unbiased, we don't get 'redos' to check what would happen if we tried to increase/decrease/nullify/reverse the bias, "Que sera, sera. Whatever will be, will be. The future's not ours to see. Que sera, sera.")

(((Oh, and, in the context of AmeriPol, and probably all other <Foo>Pols, the disaster is neither natural nor man-made, but a complex chimera of several varieties of each.)))

(((([1] Supposedly. Though we happen to know, Strangely, that it turned out not to be completely random at all...))))
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 08:10:45 am by Starver »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38798 on: August 20, 2020, 08:44:27 am »

Hey did you hear about Bolsonaro mistakingly giving a pony ride to a dwarf thinking he was a child?
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38799 on: August 20, 2020, 08:51:34 am »

There are a number of ways to interpret that sentence Poo, and it only gets more and more disturbing.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38800 on: August 20, 2020, 10:01:41 am »

-
« Last Edit: November 24, 2020, 04:38:28 pm by dragdeler »
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38801 on: August 20, 2020, 10:18:28 am »

Disruptions can totally affect the rich in a disproportionate sense just because they have more to lose.

That reminds me of a point I made in this thread a while back about the GFC, one argument was that the GFC hurt the poor more than the rich, on the basis that since the recovery the rich have gained more wealth than the poor.

However I was able to show the numbers, that income (in percentage terms) for the bottom 50% of people grew faster from the 10 years measuring from the 2008 peak (so including both the effects of the crash and the recovery) than the so-called good years leading up to that, whereas for the top 1% it was the reverse: their income was growing at a faster rate in the 10 years leading up to the peak than it was in the decade after (well into the recovery). So, while it's true gaps have expanded since the crash, it's not like they weren't already doing that, and in fact, they were doing it faster before the crash.

So yeah, the rich got richer after the GFC and they gained more total wealth than the poor. However that by itself doesn't show the GFC hurt the poor more, because you do have to take into account what the situation would have been in a non-GFC world, and the after-effects of the GFC are relative to that.

So while a pandemic or other crisis may not help the overall economy, it can actually have a redistributive effect that's not as easy to see without running the specific numbers vs the projections of what would have happened otherwise.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 10:20:55 am by Reelya »
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Reelya

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38802 on: August 20, 2020, 10:31:27 am »

No, I'm not saying it's a good thing. But crises that blow up the economy do in fact lower inequality, that's the takeaway from quite a bit of actual research:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2013/aug/06/income-wealth-gfc-equality
Quote
Higher income, lower wealth: how the GFC made Australia more equal
And like I said this is actually born out by US statistics too.

There is actually research behind the idea, but it's not the idea that the pandemic kills off useless people, the fact is that crashing the economy could level the playing field, and lower economic inequality generally translates into higher future growth. This may be born out by the 1918 flu too: areas that locked down their economy had economic crashes but grew faster after the pandemic ended, compared to areas that didn't lock down their economies as heavily.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 10:36:35 am by Reelya »
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nenjin

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38803 on: August 20, 2020, 10:31:58 am »

Might want to enhance your calm Naxza.
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voliol

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #38804 on: August 20, 2020, 10:36:26 am »

If a poor person and a rich (or even middle-class, as far as that term goes when talking about the US) person both lose 50% of their respective money the poor person still has it worse, because they have less money in the end. That kind of relative comparisons don't help much when food, housing, healthcare etc. have non-relative prices.

There's still a point though, that essential workers might have an easier time arguing for decent wages+labour standards, because it is now even more obvious that they are, you know, essential. That is, if the propaganda that they are self-less heroes doesn't spread to much, and the workers manage to combat the derived attitude of "oh, you're heroes, you don't need living wages, do you?".
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