Friend gave me a conspiracy theory about the failure to report results was on purpose - to rob Bernie of a boost from the caucuses. Conspiracy or not, the result is probably true - people are more interested in the fuck up than the actual results.
It probably won't be as big of a boost, and it'll probably be for different reasons than traditionally. But I think you'll still see some effect. Warren is bleeding support. I think some of her supporters might still turn to Bernie once it's clear she's not going to win. He can also turn what's effectively a tie for the top two slots into proof he's at least as electable as the competition, which is part of his problem currently. People might like him and his messaging, but simply think he's not electable compared to Trump. Which is a danger. Polls suggest the contrary where he has a decent buffer against Trump in a popular vote, but the electoral college is the danger. Bernie does well in cities. Not as well in rural areas.
Buttigieg will walk away the effective winner, since everyone expected Sanders to do decently, but nobody expected Buttigieg to come from behind like that. Even if it is an effective tie, or even if Sanders climbs back up on top in that last 29% of results yet to be reported, Buttigieg has the potential to ride the wave into a few more wins. But a lot will depend on how the next few play out. He also did pretty well, not GREAT, but pretty well across almost the whole spectrum in Iowa, which could mean he'd be a better contender in an electoral college race.
What I'm really curious to see is how it affects Biden's chances though, now that people see he's mortal and can be defeated. (And not even a close fight, he just got trounced.) I do think that his defeat was overstated in Iowa though. Iowa's caucus system naturally means only the most dedicated supporters are going to be out there and counted. Biden's got supporters, maybe even a bunch of supporters that would be willing to go out and mark a paper for him. But he doesn't make people excited like the other candidates tend to, so his supporters are much less wild in their support. Much less willing to go out on a Monday night and stand in a corner for a couple hours and deal with caucus bullshit. Especially for someone they see as already winning and not really in need of the extra support.
My state's governor had a rebuttal for the state of the union address last night. Pulling on heartstrings about "the economy needs to be a different kind of strong, for the science teacher who has to use her own money to buy supplies for the class..."
That's a local policy issue, not federal... seriously what are the school districts doing with all that sweet property tax and federal education revenue?
(Also, that's totally a deductible expense. Rhetorical: Do they not teach teachers about how to fill out their W-4 to change their withholding so it doesn't even affect cash flow?)
Maybe it's different there, but around here teachers are treated like shit, so much so that you typically can't keep new ones in the job for more than a year or two. They go off looking for better prospects because the pay is shit, the support from the upper end of the system is shit, the kids are getting shittier and the parents typically aren't helpful at all, when you can get ahold of them at all.
A chunk of it is because there's no money, or at least no useful money. There's plenty of money to be had if you don't mind it being earmarked for specific things. Want to buy a class set of computers? Want to hire a behavior management specialist? Want to set up a room specifically for military kids to go cry when their parents get deployed? You want to start occupational training for elementary school students? Great! How much do you need? Those are easy. Want a box of copy paper? Sorry, not in the budget. Need to replace some 20 year old broken chairs? Sorry, we'll try to find the least broken one out of the storage room full of broken chairs to switch out, best we can do. (All real examples either I or people I've worked directly with have experienced.)
We've got plenty of money laying around for things that look good for the people giving the money. If it's something that would be interesting enough to have an article written about it and help someone's reelection chances, or boost local business ego, they'll find the money. It's the god damn boring stuff like paper, erasable markers, health insurance and salaries where the system is falling apart. Combine that with more and more expectations on what the teacher should be accomplishing while at the same time tying their hands from using any useful tools to manage anything.
But again, this is all planned. They WANT to kill public schools so that they can replace them all with private for-profit schools. Schools which don't have to meet the same standards, but are getting government funding all the same. It's infuriating.
And it's also infuriating when people insist that schools are getting enough money and that the teachers are just stupid if they can't make it work. Because it shows they have no fucking clue of how screwed up the system is.
Although I will say, I don't think the governor that spoke really has any idea either. It's a nice little talking point but I don't expect anything to come from talking points like that. And it's not just a matter of "more money will fix this." The system is rotting, and the politicians are either oblivious or just waiting for it to die so they can funnel those government funds to themselves or their friends.
I would say fuck you DeVos, but she's really just the latest and most blatant in a line that goes back decades. She's certainly not helping, and definitely making things worse, but it didn't start with her and from an individual school district's point of view, she's probably not even the most dangerous enemy.
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Topic: AmeriPol thread (Read 4207303 times)