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Author Topic: AmeriPol thread  (Read 4210150 times)

dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33795 on: December 23, 2019, 05:57:07 am »

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« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 08:04:32 pm by dragdeler »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33796 on: December 23, 2019, 11:16:28 am »

Negative interest rates are really baffling things.  Consider that "positive interest rates" are a way to model investment of resources you have today to increase productivity, so that you have more production in the future than you will have had without that investment.  Negative interest rates effectively mean that you are paying people to do things now in exchange for less production in the future.

It's a baffling situation - one that can really only be explained by the fact that most modern monetary systems have completely detached themselves from the "physical" economy - that is, the actual goods and services produced.

This detachment is also a plausible explanation for the wealth/income gap:  when you have a monetary system that isn't tied to physical economy, it's easy to allocate those non-physical resources in increasingly unbalanced ways (the physical world tends to have balancing factors that limit such imbalance).

Related: I think I've said this before - "debt" is wholly a monetary phenomenon in the first place.  A society cannot actually have a physical debt, because a society cannot consume more products or services than actually exist.  When you realize this, you realize that all forms of debt are implicit wealth redistribution schemes, because they mean that a portion of production goes not to the person who produced it, but to someone else.

"Public debt" though, like national debt, is strange though, because it's like you are going into debt to yourself.  I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to think about how that manifests itself.
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33797 on: December 23, 2019, 11:53:28 am »

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« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 08:04:36 pm by dragdeler »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33798 on: December 23, 2019, 12:29:58 pm »

UBI can't work (in the long run) if it's funded by creating new money.  UBI can only work if it's distributing the benefits of production.  If you don't do it that way, you end up with inflation pressures or other unintended effects.

The idea behind negative interest rates is to encourage spending, and it does to some extent but there is a subtle problem: spending itself isn't what strengthens an economy.  Spending to increase productivity is what strengthens an economy.  This is the insidious dark side of the money multiplier of dollars given to low income brackets: yes, they are spent at a high rate, but that spending generally doesn't produce more jobs.  It's the same flaw in the arguments about minimum wage.

This isn't even taking into account the fact that for an economy to be strong there has to be some amount of savings as well - individuals have to have a buffer to withstand disturbances.  So negative interest rates' disincentive to save has severe potential to weaken the economy as well.  On the micro realm this is your savings account balance or your personal stock of food, fuel, etc.  On the macro realm this is basically strategic reserves, underutilized production capacity, and slack in things like real estate and financial markets so that when industrial demand dips companies can refinance or renegotiate rents to not go bankrupt even with lower sales.  The modern trends of just-in-time and high leverage are structural instability, because there is no "buffer."

I wonder if we need something like earthquake codes but for companies - you have to make buildings able to withstand a certain amount of shock, why don't we require companies to be built to withstand a certain amount of shock?

EDIT: 'severe' was missing an important vowel
« Last Edit: December 23, 2019, 12:52:43 pm by McTraveller »
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33799 on: December 23, 2019, 12:36:33 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 08:04:40 pm by dragdeler »
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dragdeler

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33800 on: December 23, 2019, 12:44:11 pm »

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« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 08:04:47 pm by dragdeler »
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33801 on: December 23, 2019, 01:32:39 pm »

An important factor being overlooked:

With a UBI that is actually, you know, USEFUL, then people starting businesses (and keeping them running) will increase.  This is because not only is the employer getting a living wage from the UBI, but so are all the workers.  It reduces a LOT of burden from small employers.  Couple with medicare for all, and you have a pretty good deal for small employers.

The idea of having a job is to get more than the UBI, and gain a small market advantage.  Since UBI is (ideally) tied to the difference between the highest earners and the median income (so that the highest earners cannot escape into the stratosphere, leaving everyone else behind), this means that large industry becomes more and more a liability, which would be a very effective control to capitalism's tendency to hoard wealth at the top.
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33802 on: December 23, 2019, 01:45:57 pm »

Not sure I understand the "UBI is tied to the difference between the highest earners and the median income" idea - can you elaborate?  Why would the level of income necessary to be "basic income" have any tie to the highest income brackets?  Not that I'm opposed to systems like that but I don't follow how it links to UBI.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33803 on: December 23, 2019, 02:01:27 pm »

Federal tax money is literally a way to destroy cash to control the overall supply, it's no coincidence that we've been going through these boom-bust-boom-bust cycles ever since stupid fucking cuntbags like Reagan and his shitfucks managed to sell the idea that cutting taxes and letting a few people and businesses amass huge piles of money is a good thing for everyone.

Sounds strange when I say it out loud, but apparently it's easier for some people to believe those who win out with these changes are stupid enough to turn around and pass out all the extra cash they got so everyone wins, rather than consider the idea that anyone who believed this bullshit was just gullible and easily abused.

So now we've got excess cash floating around under the premise that somehow cutting back on government spending is in any way a good thing, because if you wave your hands and and say job creation enough apparently people forget that there are no similarities between the meaning of terms like "debt", "income", "deficit", and "surplus" when discussing home finances and the meanings they take on when discussing federal spending.

There's no pile of federal tax money that gets collected and counted and argued over before being divided and paid out to various contractors and programs, when federal taxes get paid they are being removed from the circulating cash pool, when federal expenditures are made they just get directly added into the cash pool, nobody counts up and carries hundreds of millions of dollar bills over to Boeing before wheeling a new plane off the lot, the government says "Boeing has this much more money now" and it does.

I'm sure there are people in the federal government who are fully aware that they're misleading people by acting like federal debt is the same as personal debt and federal deficits are a bad thing.

If the government runs a deficit one year that means they removed less cash from the system than they injected into it which ideally means that cash ended up in some of our pockets, right?

Unfortunately it's been flowing into just a few pockets and they've been using it to accumulate more and more while buying the best political advantages they can afford so things like readjusting the value of assets and cutting off the unlimited flow of cash into said hoards become political suicide, and indeed straight up taboo to even discuss anything outside of a wealth enhancing inequality preserving capitalist system.


Regarding UBI, a job being nothing more than a way to scrabble a little above the masses sounds like the most depressing goddamn dystopian horrorshow I've ever lived through.

Having something to do, a way to use your time which interests you, which lets you feel useful, helpful, entertaining, or necessary, and anything of the sort... that is what a job should be. I don't make things so I can get a bit more money than the neighbors, I do it because I enjoy it, I love seeing things I made being used, seeing them being valued, and enjoyed. I do it to improve my own abilities, and my environment, and am happy when it improves the environment of others.

A UBI would let me do this better, more comfortably, with less stress over bullshit like not being able to get my teeth fixed or running out of materials regularly. I'm going to be doing this anyways, it would be nice not having to constantly weigh out certain choices and risks which aren't directly related to my craft, I'd enjoy that freedom more than I would if I started stressing about trying to maximize all of my workflow so I can outpace the Joneses or whatever, I don't give a fuck about social status and shit like that.
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wierd

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33804 on: December 23, 2019, 02:07:56 pm »

One of the problems being discussed, is that ordinary people cannot afford the most basic offers in the market. (See Ipsil's posts) This is partly because the top 1% earners are buying and then hoarding, all means of gaining market power. (See for instance, Silicon Valley, and realestate.)

To combat this snowballing effect, you need to prevent the 1% from escaping reality through capital gains. (or rather, force the rest of the market to move upward with them.)  The further the 1% climbs the slope, the more profound the impact of the rest of the market being left behind. (EG, Google or Apple can afford realestate in silicon valley, but no ordinary person ever could, as the costs are driven ever upward by demand and endlessly deep pockets.)  There still isn't really a limit to how much a 1%er can earn, just that the more they earn (Compared to the median income), the higher the UBI needs to be to combat the problem. (It assures people can still buy basic things, like houses.)

I am not naive, there are not unlimited houses out there-- but it DOES put the brakes on for people buying up properties, driving up demand, then selling at high rates.  This is because the effective power of their investment is diminished by their money grubbing (collectively), while non-moneygrubbers still have buying power in the market.  It effectively prevents shutting smaller people out, via sheer force of capital.  This is because as they make it more unlivable (and get richer in the process), everyone else gets more money to combat their hoarding.  The less they hoard, the more money is useful for them, because other people get paid less.



re: Max

The "Above UBI goal" thing for working is intended for people who work for somebody else, either because they lack an intrinsic skill, or lack the desire comittment to self-betterment through freeing their time for themselves, but most specifically-- for people who are just plain greedy, and want more.  The idea is that the UBI is an enabler to remove burdens of meeting and sustaining a comfortably livable life (all on its own), but if you want to own something clearly luxurious, the presence of the UBI is going to make luxurious goods more difficult to obtain.  You either have to save money, OR, get gainful employment.  It is intended to be presented in a fashion that a 1% understands, not that a normal person would think like.  To a 1%er, getting "more" is a noble goal in and of itself. 

By its existence, that greed can still be harnessed to leverage group labor for large projects that a single person could not achieve.  Things like constructing highways and the like.  The margins of such businesses can be lower, because the expenses are lower, because everyone already has healthcare and a livable wage (even if they dont show up to work.)   People WANT more, so they still come to work, because working for somebody else is EASIER than self-betterment.

There will be no shortage of people who use the UBI to self better themselves, such as perhaps, you might make and sell wooden durable goods. (You do it mainly for the enjoyment of the process, but something useful is still created, and probably sold. the UBI enables you to add that offering to the market at very low risk to yourself.)  There will likewise be no shortage of people who do not do that, and would rather work for somebody else. (In which case, the UBI makes it easier for people to hire others, because the costs to entry are much lower. It also makes workers happier in general, because they can be more picky about who they work for, and what kind of work they do.)

« Last Edit: December 23, 2019, 02:24:03 pm by wierd »
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33805 on: December 23, 2019, 03:13:50 pm »


There's no pile of federal tax money that gets collected and counted and argued over before being divided and paid out to various contractors and programs, when federal taxes get paid they are being removed from the circulating cash pool, when federal expenditures are made they just get directly added into the cash pool
Um... no, that's not how the money supply in the US works.  Paying federal tax does not change the money supply.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33806 on: December 23, 2019, 03:21:32 pm »

Are you sure about that? Ultimately when federal taxes are collected, what does that mean? It isn't like the US government needs to fund itself via tax revenue like a local or state government does, they don't need to go around and shuffle this huge pile of tax receipts into that huge pile of outgoing expenditures, when they run a deficit there isn't a repo man coming to take their F-35 fleet.

If the US government pays out x dollars next year and receives <x dollars back in taxes, where do the remaining dollars end up?

If they pull in a surplus does that mean they get a bonus or something?
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McTraveller

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33807 on: December 23, 2019, 04:14:37 pm »

Um... yes there really is a "checking account" where your tax payments go.  If there is a surplus, the federal government pays off some of its debt by buying back government bonds.  That money then goes back into the accounts of the bondholders.  The more typical situation is the government has to issue bonds instead.  In this instance, people pay the government money for the bond.

The money for those bonds comes from the same place any other money originates in the US: fractional reserve lending.

The only thing the federal government does that is unique is that the federal government controls hard currency: bills and coins.  The federal government does, therefore, control the supply of physical currency directly.  But since usually taxes aren't paid by physical currency, again, paying your taxes doesn't even affect the supply of bills and coins.

There's a reason why the tools the federal reserve has to control the money supply are interest rates and the reserve requirement: those are the levers that really control the money supply.
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Max™

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33808 on: December 23, 2019, 05:33:43 pm »

I'm not talking about physical currency, and it seems like you're conflating personal/local economics with federal economics with the way you talk about surplus/debt/tax payments.

If the federal government needed tax revenue to operate, then that would suggest it could run out of the currency which it issues, wouldn't it?
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Lord Shonus

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Re: AmeriPol thread
« Reply #33809 on: December 23, 2019, 06:01:41 pm »

Yes, the government running out of money is possible. This is avoided by raising the debt limit and issuing  bonds.
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