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[smjjames]

Anybody got a link/invite to the B12 Discord, if we're gonna do this there?

EDIT:
Ok, screw it -- I'll host it.
https://discord.gg/3MzxkK

Hosting this off my own laptop, so might get sluggish if a lot of people join.
Feel free to join early, banter, and pick up a Midterm Bingo sheet (attached in the General Channel).

I will likely be away fixing dinner, so if you don't get a response, that's why. We'll get going in earnest around 6:30-7:00pm EST. If you want to play the Fantasy Midterm Bingo thing, I need your sheet by 6:00pm EST, since that's when Indiana polls close.

Just bringing the discord link onto the next page.

[Magistrum]

Apparently Trump screwed up soy.
Bad.

Really, really bad. In fact, the United States is likely to never come back from the damage this will cause to the industry, as China will seek more reliable suppliers. It is a bit sad, since only major corporations will be able to survive that one, I can already envision all the mom and pops farmers left migrating to the cities to not starve.

I am very happy tough, because because while the US is the top soybean supplier in the world (for now) the second biggest is my home country, Brazil, which is just now coming from one of the biggest recession in our history. I should move some of my investments to soy.

But then again, Bolsonaro was just elected, maybe he will find a way to botch this one.

PS.: Should I cross-post this to latin politics?

[ggamer]

had to drive a whole ass hour to get to my polling place since i'm still technically registered in south GA 

Pretty incredible turnout IMO, considering there wasn't a quarter of the people turning out during the primary. Ofc the state house seat for my district still goes to fucking burt jones Dude's a fucking clown and everyone knows it.

Apparently Trump screwed up soy.
Bad.

OOF

Good time for smaller landowners to switch from ag to forestry, at least here in GA. I know a sizeable amount of acreage is dedicated to growing soy, so with the forestry amendments that are probably gonna pass it's all incentives and few downsides.

[Starver]

But trees cause forest fires (and water flows downhill...  who knew?). Bad!

[Dunamisdeos]

That article has an interesting breakdown.

The bottom line: In 2016, soybeans accounted for 12% of U.S. exports to China, per MIT's data. And American farmers ramped up production of soybeans in part because the Chinese were buying in such massive quantities. Now, that source of revenue is in jeopardy.

The backdrop...

Politically-motivated tariff retaliation isn't new, Thomas Duesterberg of the Hudson Institute tells Axios. "The Europeans have become experts at that. Everybody's learning from them," he says.

When then-President Bush announced steel tariffs in 2002, the European Union threatened retaliation aimed at Florida, a sensitive state for Bush. Now, the Chinese are using moves against U.S. agricultural products and manufactured goods, such as automobiles and planes, to hit Trump's core voters.

Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association told the Des Moines Register: Tariffs create "a lot of market disruption at a time when farmers can't afford any disruptions ... For farmers on the edge, this could be very detrimental."


Yes, but...

Trump is fulfilling a campaign promise — that he'd be tough on China — made to industrial workers in his base. And "there are a lot more of those people than there are farmers ... That's probably the political calculus that Trump is employing here," says Duesterberg.

And the farming community has ways of seeking recourse, he says. Many American farmers stopped growing corn and wheat in favor of soybeans as the Chinese market grew, and they have the option of switching back.

Farmers are also protected by price floors on agricultural goods — a market advantage industrial workers don't have. Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue tweeted: "The president has assured me he won't let our farmers bear the brunt of China's retaliation."

"You've also got to understand that Trump is going to get support from the other side of the aisle on this ... That mutes the damage to him to a certain extent," according to Duesterberg.

[Doomblade187]

Apparently Trump screwed up soy.
Bad.

Holy fuck. 94%!? That is going to change the landscape of american agriculture.

EDIT: glad we have price floors RN, keeps the farmers from feeling the worst of it.

[Rolan7]

Yeesh.  Good thing I like tofu, guess I better learn to like soymilk finally.

[Dunamisdeos]

Apparently Trump screwed up soy.
Bad.

Holy fuck. 94%!? That is going to change the landscape of american agriculture.

EDIT: glad we have price floors RN, keeps the farmers from feeling the worst of it.

Doing some quick math for how much we export to China yearly in conjunction with the article's claim that 12% of our exports to China were soybeans, that's.....

14.4 billion export moneys, gone.

EDIT:
Perhaps most importantly, fully HALF of our soybean exports were to China. We do have multiple other trade partners for Soybeans but that is a huge impact.

[Hanslanda]

Hey we just need him to keep being obviously incompetent for 2 more years!

[RoseHeart]

STAR voting.

WANT

[Rose]

Watching the results is depressing when you live in a state that historically doesn't go the way you like.

[Rolan7]

PBS complaining that people don't split their tickets anymore, which is sad but not surprising.  The Republicans fell in behind Trump (after treating him with open disgust in the primaries).  If you see the problem with Trump, it doesn't make sense to treat your Republican representative with loyalty - they've clearly shown they're loyal to the party line, and would rather serve a leader *they* find revolting, not their constituents.

[Greiger]

Hmph, florida makes me feel like I've wasted my time.  Nothing quite like working with the public and not seeing a single person who openly supports trump or the republicans.  And then seeing the county turn red.  What's the point.

[Greiger]

I suppose that's true.  Still frustrating that I'm now being represented in senate by Gollum.  Corrupt bastard didn't get enough of running the state into the ground now he wants to try the country.

[Trekkin]

Hmph, florida makes me feel like I've wasted my time.  Nothing quite like working with the public and not seeing a single person who openly supports trump or the republicans.  And then seeing the county turn red.  What's the point.

The point is that if you stop pushing, you cede ground to the people pushing on the other side, and without a local political machine there's nobody to pick up on the shifts in the electorate that make a district a priority for national parties, local volunteers, candidates, and voters. The difference between 1% and 10% of the vote today can make or break the enthusiasm that makes the difference between 49% and 51% in some future cycle.

2016 was the electoral equivalent of starting a game of Liberal Crime Squad in Nightmare Mode. There's a lot of ground to make up, and a lot of local political apparatus to rebuild, before things start flipping back en masse.