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[smjjames]

I'm having doubts the demos are going to take the midterms.

I'm confident that the Democrats will take the House, it's just a question of 'by how much?' The Senate on the other hand.... Starting to look dicey there with the possibility of losing one seat, though anything could happen at this point.

The deck was already stacked for the Senate and I'd have considered status quo as a win for there.

[Folly]

Out of curiosity, how much damage could the Republicans cause before the midterms, controlling all 3 branches? Is there any chance they could start rushing legislation through the system at unprecedented speeds?

[Lord Shonus]

Not these Republicans, and the Supreme Court doesn't matter even a little bit for this calculation.

The Court only has a say after a challenge to a law has gotten all the way through the lower courts, and usually only steps in if there is an obvious issue that needs to be settled or if two District Courts reach divergent opinions.


In theory, a party with a majority in both Houses and the Presidency could just pump out legislation, but they could have done that since 2016 - except that they can't get along well enough to do it, and the margin in the Senate is so thin that it is very hard to get bills through without making serious appeals to the other side of the aisle.

[smjjames]

They don't exactly control the Supreme Court, heavily in favor, yes, but it depends on what the issue being ruled on is.

They have a quiet docket atm, but controversial issues could come up any time.

I doubt the Republicans are going to be doing much besides campaigning between now and November. There were some mumblings about a tax cut 2.0 thing before November, but that seems to have fallen through.

Not particularly likely. Remember, they lack a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, forcing them to use strange and esoteric rules to pass anything at all.

Also that.

[hector13]

Probably a misstep by the GOP, given they’ve mobilized the Dems a month before the mid-terms. Holding off the confirmation ‘til afterward would’ve been risky, but they could’ve campaigned on it for the election.

[smjjames]

Probably a misstep by the GOP, given they’ve mobilized the Dems a month before the mid-terms. Holding off the confirmation ‘til afterward would’ve been risky, but they could’ve campaigned on it for the election.

You forget that they wanted Kavanaugh on the court before the October session started, and it starts Monday I think. That's why they were trying to rush it with all abandon.

[Folly]

Trump 100% certain that Ford named the wrong person in her accusation.
He just can't resist stoking the flames.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Kavanaugh's swearing in won't be a peaceful one...

[Trekkin]

Probably a misstep by the GOP, given they’ve mobilized the Dems a month before the mid-terms. Holding off the confirmation ‘til afterward would’ve been risky, but they could’ve campaigned on it for the election.

They've mobilized their own base too, though, by pitching his nomination as the triumph of the presumption of innocence over the madness of #MeToo. I don't think the math works out in their favor, but presumably McConnell has different demographic data in front of him.

[smjjames]

It could cut both ways, and it's complicated and complacency could still set in now that Republicans have 'won'.

[Dunamisdeos]

Really I think everyone is and was as mobilized as they are going to get, it's been sort of nonstop since 2017.

At this point we just get to find out of the majority of the nation really is sick enough of Donald Trump and his supporters to vote against folks who could agree with him.

[Shazbot]

At this point we just get to find out of the majority of the nation really is sick enough of Donald Trump and his supporters to vote against folks who could agree with him.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trumps-approval-jumps-to-51-percent

The question wasn't if they were sick of Trump. The question was if the Republican party was going to have the balls to side with Trump. This little ploy by Feinstein to drive the female vote turned into a transparent effort at obstruction and possibly perjury which will influence the independent, the stay-home, and the democrat Trump crossovers to support the Republican party or face another two years of nonsense just like this trying to impeach Trump on "muh Russia".

Trump's coalition was sick of losing. Trump's coalition was told to vote for him and start winning.

He just won bigly. Huge. Huuuuuuge.

The question is now if they are sick of winning yet.

[sluissa]

Polls did drop closer... if not significantly, then noticably during the Kavanaugh fight. I think Dems actually hurt themselves with their political maneuvering during the whole thing. It was quite embarrassing. Combine that with the fact that Dems are feeling dejected and tired, the hope that they might flip the senate and stop Kavanaugh is gone. It probably wasn't the best time for the fight to happen. House is still somewhat safe to flip... but I think it'll be closer than anyone likes.

[misko27]

I remember reading, way back when Kennedy retired, that McConnell was threatening to confirm a Justice just before the midterm elections (if Democrats didn't accede to some demand of his that I've forgotten), with the logic that doing so would demoralize the Democratic base. This was before Kavanaugh, of course: the bases are certainly fired up, but there could be a significant difference in degree (i.e. complacency).

Five-Thirty Eight says Dems have a 2/9 chance of taking the Senate, and a 3/4 chance of taking the House. Last I looked at them, it was 1/3 Senate and 2/3 House, so there's been some slight movement, but not very consistently. RCP's averages put the likely Senate at 51-49, with each party gaining two seats.

Trump 100% certain that Ford named the wrong person in her accusation.

100%, even though he wasn't even there? I'd never say I was 100% certain of anything unless I was personally there, and perhaps not even then. But that's surely my fault for attempting to apply reason to Trump's pronouncements...

They don't exactly control the Supreme Court, heavily in favor, yes, but it depends on what the issue being ruled on is.

Consider that, given the Supreme Court as it now stands, they would still likely rule in favor of Obamacare, with Chief Justice Roberts as the deciding factor.

Polls did drop closer... if not significantly, then noticably during the Kavanaugh fight. I think Dems actually hurt themselves with their political maneuvering during the whole thing. It was quite embarrassing. Combine that with the fact that Dems are feeling dejected and tired, the hope that they might flip the senate and stop Kavanaugh is gone. It probably wasn't the best time for the fight to happen. House is still somewhat safe to flip... but I think it'll be closer than anyone likes.

There's no such thing as general polls in midterms, though. The difference between the Senate and the House should be as good evidence as any of that. And I just don't see it having much effect. Democrats are outraged, Republicans are brushing it off in favor of "winning", moderates are unsettled and decry the degradation of norms. So essentially the same thing that's been happening for the last two years.

[smjjames]

That's from the Rasmussen polls that Trump loves to cherrypick. Way to cherrypick shazbot (and the Washington Examiner). More to the point, that's just one poll out of many, you have to look at the average.

Looks like it's just returning to the 41/42% stable point which it had been at for most of the summer.

Polls did drop closer... if not significantly, then noticably during the Kavanaugh fight. I think Dems actually hurt themselves with their political maneuvering during the whole thing. It was quite embarrassing. Combine that with the fact that Dems are feeling dejected and tired, the hope that they might flip the senate and stop Kavanaugh is gone. It probably wasn't the best time for the fight to happen. House is still somewhat safe to flip... but I think it'll be closer than anyone likes.

They probably did hurt themselves with the political maneuvering, though they are also saying that Avenatti really didn't help things..

Also, I checked back in mid-late May (the last time it peaked) on the 538 page there and the Rasmussen poll there for mid-May shows 50%, which roughly correlates to the same position as now. It was also very fleeting, so, don't expect that 51% to stick around.

[sluissa]

Downplaying the Swetnick allegations pissed me off. Doesn't matter if it was Avenatti arranging it, they should have been investigated just like the rest.