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[Cathar]

(In theory of course; we all know how much people question the statistics behind CPI and wage growth.)

And those people are not very smart. Muddying the waters is one of the methods used to discredit any serious attempt at giving some sanity in any given debate, and relying instead on primal, tribal and fear based reactions in order to prevent a rational assessment of policies.

The bottom line is this :

A CPI can be used to index (i.e., adjust for the effect of inflation) the real value of wages, salaries, pensions, for regulating prices and for deflating monetary magnitudes to show changes in real values. In most countries, the CPI, along with the population census, is one of the most closely watched national economic statistics.

If the industry keeps watch of that indicator, it is because this indicator is objectively important to people who conduct business. Since it is a value meant to assess trade and not to score political points, it can be relied upon.

[smjjames]

I doubt the tariffs would affect inflation all that much. The hit to consumers comes from higher prices due to the steel and aluminum being more expensive and the companies passing on the costs to the customers, not from inflation.

[Cathar]

We'll need to wait and see. The (liberal) medias I've been watching keep insisting the lack of wage raising means there will be no inflation, but I'm not taking them at their word on that.

Why : The price of steel means a number of ad hoc jobs has flooded the market right after the annoucement to profit over the inflated price. Wage do not go up, but the employment numbers do, so the total amount of wealth distributed to the public will skyrocket for a short period of time even without a raise in wages, until those jobs wear off with the steel price.

Again, I'm not 100% sure of that, but at this point and time this is what I believe, and I'll keep monitoring the CPI, the employment rate in the US and the international steel price until the numbers fall.

[McTraveller]

Eh, the problem with CPI in the US at least is that it is over far too large an area to be meaningful "to the average person".  A headline CPI of 2.1% is objectively incorrect in metro areas with rents increasing 10% or more year over year and rents already consume more than 50% of the average budget; the CPI in those areas is at least 5%.

I can't say I know how useful CPI across the US actually is in terms of industry forecasting though.  Maybe it's sufficient to aggregate across the nation for that purpose.

[Cathar]

The most single important thing I want to say is ; everyone benefits from the truth. Methods used by the industry are known for their reliability, and we should focus on them instead of partisan politics which is just hot air especially now.

If you have a better indicator for inflation please share it and I'll see, but since CPI is known for its reliability I'll operate with it until I have a more reliable indicator.

The bottom line is, I want to know what is happening and I'm really tired of both lies and meaningless tribalism

[smjjames]

I assure you that we're also all tired of the hyperpartianship and tribalism.

As far as wanting to know what's happening, that uncertianity which Trump injected is what's roiling things atm exactly because nobody knows exactly what is happening with it since it's pretty much all up in the air.

Meanwhile, Trump is demanding that the EU lower their tariffs or he won't remove the steel and aluminum tariffs. While at the same time threatening retaliatory tariffs if the EU does their retaliatory tariffs.

[Cathar]

You can trust the European Commission to take the rational route. Those guys do not panic and I know that for having personally witnessed them at work on the field I was working on at the time. Can't say for sure what they are planning to do, but here's what I can say for sure :

•From a quick assessment steel tariffs do not impact Europe in a meaningful way. The great majority of European steel trade is carried on within europe
•French president Macron just came back from a trip to india where new trades agreements were opened specifically to compensate US tariffs.
•European Commission will not run out of joke tariffs on lewis jeans and cheap alcohol anytime soon. Right now they are laughing it off.

[smjjames]

The main danger is Trump taking those as a grievous personal slight kind of thing and counterpunches with tariffs or whatever and then keeping escalating with more, no matter how many symbolic tariffs the EU does.

Sen. Flake (and maybe one or two other Senators) has said that he'll try to do a bill that nullifies the tariffs. A few other Senators have said that they're willing to support a bill that does that.

However, unless he uses the same 'national security' bypass tactic again, any tariffs would have to be okay'd by Congress first.

[Cathar]

Of course, the danger is escalation. USA breaks the international trade law with those tariffs, while the retaliatory joke tariffs from the UE do not. I do not think UE will kotow to criminal international actions since their own stability is threatened by it. But whatever solution there is, I have an absolute trust in the European Comission to find it. If it means having the USA keep isolating itself in the international trade, EU will do it eventually.

Do not be under the impression that Europe cannot conduct trade without the USA, at least in the international steel market, it has already taken steps to.

But we're not in that situation yet. What's important is what is happening now

[Folly]

Somebody pointed out that Trump has one actual skill: selling bullshit to gullible victims.

His entire career has been about getting dupes to buy nonsense he was spouting, getting as much as he could out of it, then making sure when it goes to shit (and it always goes to shit) he isn't the one left holding the bag.

Trump's entire career has been about laundering money for Russian crime syndicates. Duping rubes is just something he does in his spare time for the lulz.

[Max™]

Somebody pointed out that Trump has one actual skill: selling bullshit to gullible victims.

His entire career has been about getting dupes to buy nonsense he was spouting, getting as much as he could out of it, then making sure when it goes to shit (and it always goes to shit) he isn't the one left holding the bag.

Trump's entire career has been about laundering money for Russian crime syndicates. Duping rubes is just something he does in his spare time for the lulz.

While amusing, it imputes far too much awareness and deliberation to someone who accidentally hit level 99 in Village Idiot and relies on spamming maxed out quickened AoE versions of Misdirection and Fool's Gold to get by.

Also the dog-whistling comment re: Jackson was because it would have seemed absurd to see the party started by that punk kid Lincoln end up where it is nowadays. I mean yeah, both parties have had racist undertones at times, and there were several periods where large chunks of the Democrats came out as openly racist as fuck, but having the Republican party become synonymous with hateful old white men is a trip and a half.

[SalmonGod]

Nationwide 17-minute school walkout planned for Wed this week.  My kid's principal put out a letter stating they would allow students to gather in the gym instead of walking outside, in order to provide a safe outlet.

This letter has hundreds of comments on social media already.  90% of them obnoxiously insulting the protests, saying that they'll ground their own children if they participate, etc.

[smjjames]

Nationwide 17-minute school walkout planned for Wed this week.  My kid's principal put out a letter stating they would allow students to gather in the gym instead of walking outside, in order to provide a safe outlet.

This letter has hundreds of comments on social media already.  90% of them obnoxiously insulting the protests, saying that they'll ground their own children if they participate, etc.

So much for promoting independence and civic responsibility and the right to protest. Yes, they're kids, but so were many people who protested in the 60's.

Providing a safe outlet like the gym or something is still a good idea.

[sluissa]

The gym idea is a good one, because otherwise it puts school officials in a frustrating position.

Schools are hilariously understaffed for the size and hostility of some of the student body they typically deal with. Kids are more or less forced to go and schools are more or less responsible for them for the allotted time they're to be there.

If a kid walks out of school during the day and something happens, blame lands on the school staff.

It's only the fact that the majority of kids are willing to fall into line that makes the whole system work. The staff that's there is able to handle the fires that pop up when they do because 95+% of the kids are willing to sit down and shut up when told to(And peer pressure helps with a chunk of the rest). When you have essentially organized mutiny... things get kind of scary.

So basically there's only about 3 vague options. 1: You lock the kids up and punish any that attempt to do so anyway hard enough it makes an example and pushes kids back in line. Most likely to keep everyone in line, but also invokes a slight risk of rebellion and a loss of respect for teachers and staff. 2: You make it a school sponsored function. Teachers walk their students outside/somewhere. Let them chant some school approved chants a bit. Basically turn it into a pep rally at the risk of students finding it shallow and still walking out. or 3: A middle ground, you admit you can't stop the students, so let them speak out on their own terms, but just try to funnel them into a safe area (like the gym in SalmonGod's situation.) Risking various outcomes again. But this time with even less control over the situation.

I'm not defending parent reactions, because I doubt many of them are viewing it from this angle and probably most just disagree with their kids politics or them showing rebellion of some sort. However I would probably make it clear to any hypothetical children of mine that unless it's a school approved event, they're not to participate. But if they felt strongly about it (and it wasn't simply a "hur hur, let's skip class" deal) I would see if I could find some out of school event I could take them to.

Schools just aren't equipped to deal with that sort of situation and it's unfair to put it on the shoulders of teachers and staff.

[redwallzyl]

The gym idea is a good one, because otherwise it puts school officials in a frustrating position.

Schools are hilariously understaffed for the size and hostility of some of the student body they typically deal with. Kids are more or less forced to go and schools are more or less responsible for them for the allotted time they're to be there.

If a kid walks out of school during the day and something happens, blame lands on the school staff.

It's only the fact that the majority of kids are willing to fall into line that makes the whole system work. The staff that's there is able to handle the fires that pop up when they do because 95+% of the kids are willing to sit down and shut up when told to(And peer pressure helps with a chunk of the rest). When you have essentially organized mutiny... things get kind of scary.

So basically there's only about 3 vague options. 1: You lock the kids up and punish any that attempt to do so anyway hard enough it makes an example and pushes kids back in line. Most likely to keep everyone in line, but also invokes a slight risk of rebellion and a loss of respect for teachers and staff. 2: You make it a school sponsored function. Teachers walk their students outside/somewhere. Let them chant some school approved chants a bit. Basically turn it into a pep rally at the risk of students finding it shallow and still walking out. or 3: A middle ground, you admit you can't stop the students, so let them speak out on their own terms, but just try to funnel them into a safe area (like the gym in SalmonGod's situation.) Risking various outcomes again. But this time with even less control over the situation.

I'm not defending parent reactions, because I doubt many of them are viewing it from this angle and probably most just disagree with their kids politics or them showing rebellion of some sort. However I would probably make it clear to any hypothetical children of mine that unless it's a school approved event, they're not to participate. But if they felt strongly about it (and it wasn't simply a "hur hur, let's skip class" deal) I would see if I could find some out of school event I could take them to.

Schools just aren't equipped to deal with that sort of situation and it's unfair to put it on the shoulders of teachers and staff.

Yes, it probably a good thing schools don't have a government style monopoly on violence. On a certain level all societies need to rely on hegemony of institutions to get people to do things without actually needing to force anyone physically. Even governments can't win when they lose the automatic compliance of all their citizens.