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[PTTG??]

Firing a countermissile would give away valuable intel, from something as abstract as the initial accerlation profile to the simple-yet-critical information such as the location of the antimissile batteries.

Better to save it for a real counterstrike.

That said, failing to respond to a real first strike, even a small one, in kind would be a dangerous mistake. It produce the false impression that it's possible to do peacemeal nuclear war so long as only one or two missiles is launched.

[Dunamisdeos]

I see some reports mention that Japan is warning it's citizens not to interact with debris. Any confirmation that any pieces of the thing made landfall?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Such a situation would at least be short-lived assuming the world didn't end, as you'd quickly end up with a global SDI scenario where everybody tries to shoot down everyone else's missiles no matter what the circumstances once a successful nuking has taken place.

[smjjames]

I see some reports mention that Japan is warning it's citizens not to interact with debris. Any confirmation that any pieces of the thing made landfall?

Might be a just in case warning. Reports that I've seen say that it landed in the ocean, though it did break up in midflight, which could lead to debris falling.

Such a situation would at least be short-lived assuming the world didn't end, as you'd quickly end up with a global SDI scenario where everybody tries to shoot down everyone else's missiles no matter what the circumstances once a successful nuking has taken place.

That assumes massive nuclear proliferation.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

No it doesn't? You don't need nukes for ABM systems.

[Lord Shonus]

You do, however, need enough nuclear powers that aren't talking to each other for things to get that bad. In the "ideal" outcome of a lone-wolf strike, the President would be on the phone with China and Russia assuring them that any launches they detect are defensive weapons, and those powers would look at the deteriorating geopolitical situation and hold off long enough for the missile traces to vanish.

Of course, in this world we have Trump, who's idea of diplomacy would be "sit down, shut up, or die", and he'd send it in five tweets spaced so far apart that it would look like an attack declaration.

[Random_Dragon]

Given it wasn't the first North Korean missile to go over Japan (1998 was evidently one other instance), the chances of it going hot likely hinge (for now) on whether the president can be trusted not to immediately nuke a country bordering one of our allies. :V

[Folly]

Trumps silly reason/excuse for doing the pardon in the middle of the hurricane: ""
Just a case of 'politician says silly reason/excuse for why they did x'.

He went on to justify his pardoning of Joe by listing every single unpopular person pardoned by Obama and Clinton.

Also, his new justification for The Wall is to keep drugs out. This excuse is slightly more tenable than 'all immigrants are serial rapists', but still doesn't make a wall even remotely viable in terms of cost or effectiveness compared to other options.
Also, the other day I heard him say it would be a wall you can see through. Unless he's planning to build it out of glass, that's called a fence.

[smjjames]

There was one in 2009, but I don't know the circumstances of that one. I'd guess Trump would be more likely to retaliate if the missile had actually landed on Japan, but still, pretty provocative.

Also, his new justification for The Wall is to keep drugs out. This excuse is slightly more tenable than 'all immigrants are serial rapists', but still doesn't make a wall even remotely viable in terms of cost or effectiveness compared to other options.

I don't think that's new, he rotates out at least three different reasons.

[Dunamisdeos]

I HAVE THE BEST AIM. THE VERY BEST. *madly wiggles joystick, hits Brazil*

For reals, does not the nuclear option have to go through more people than the president? Cursory research makes it sound like the two-man rule is in place to make sure first that it's a real order, and second that the President isn't insane? If Trump decided to nuke NK tonight I expect they could and would easily declare him legally insane and remove him from office.

Also, drugs? They would just find another way in, even if it's harder. Or it would be homebrew stuff. Trump would probably get mad that the drug cartels weren't respecting the wall, I built this wall, why won't you use it.

[smjjames]

I HAVE THE BEST AIM. THE VERY BEST. *madly wiggles joystick, hits Brazil*

For reals, does not the nuclear option have to go through more people than the president? Cursory research makes it sound like the two-man rule is in place to make sure first that it's a real order, and second that the President isn't insane? If Trump decided to nuke NK tonight I expect they could and would easily declare him legally insane and remove him from office.

That might have been Nixon when he was close to his rock bottom point.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Legally, the Secretary of Defense has to concur with the launch, but some legal scholars have pointed out that the President can just fire the SecDef and appoint an acting one immediately.

Functionally, you'd probably see revolt from the staff if the launch weren't under the most dire circumstances. The Secret Service is meant to protect the President, not necessarily to do everything he wants. I suspect you'd see an invocation of the 25th Amendment, which would see Trump declared unable to discharge his duties by the Veep and Cabinet, at which point Mike Pence immediately becomes Acting President unless Trump can get Congress to reinstate him so he can nuke the world.

So there is a check here, but I have to admit some of the Republican Congressthralls would probably like to nuke the world.

[Descan]

Accelerationists are leftists who believe that attempts at legislative or even direct action are futile and only draw out the consequences of capitalism. To them, getting rid of capitalism is only possible when it's reached its late-stage and become fully degenerate and weak.

As such, accelerationists believe that leftists should vote for the most vile hypercapitalists possible in order to accelerate the coming of the revolution, like ripping off a bandage.

I've been called an accelerationist for thinking that Trump staying in power is better than impeachment into Pence, because Trump's just in it for the ego boost and narcissism (and the Republicans don't seem to really want to work with him) while Pence has an actual *agenda* and a somewhat warm relationship with Congressional Republicans.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Nah, that's the opposite of accelerationism. You want the Republican administration to be unable to do things, not more able to do them. You're....uh..."decelerationist."

Accelerationism is like "put the Goldman Sachs board of directors in the White House and stop having elections".

[Random_Dragon]

I'm not really sure whether "guy who has an agenda" is better or worse than President Stares-into-the-sun, but if he did skip procedure and get a nuke off without going through the correct channels, best-case scenario is basically hope either it fucks up too like the NK missile did, or that China and Russia somehow (unlikely as that is) decide North Korea isn't worth WWIII. One launch that gets an impeachment would still be risky.